And just like that Week 2 of the NFL season is here. The NY Jets are coming off a close loss to the Carolina Panthers where they played a hard-fought game. If you are here, then you aren't here to recap the game, you're here for prop bets.
Last week was a pretty good week all things considered. We came out of it hitting three of the four player prop recommendations. Let's aim to do better than that this week, as the Jets will be taking on the New England Patriots.
Here are some of my favorite prop bets for the game on Sunday. All the following props are according to WynnBet.
NY Jets quarterback Zach Wilson's prop for pass attempts this week is 32.5 (o/u)
Rookie quarterback Zach Wilson mostly played well in his start for the green and white. He completed 20-of-37 passes for 258 yards and two touchdowns.
In his first game, the Jets called a pass play on 14-of-22 first and second down plays in the first half while the game was still within one score. That rate of 63 percent was a top-11 number in the NFL in Week 1.
That number, while a small sample size (only one week), shows intent. It shows the Jets feel that their best chance of producing on offense is through the right arm of Wilson.
The Jets are six-point underdogs against the Patriots — teams trailing typically throw the ball an average of 65 percent of the time over the last decade.
If the Jets, who ran 65 plays last week, run close to that number again while continuing to throw the ball at an above-average rate, then Wilson should exceed this prop. With the Jets not being expected to win a lot of games, Wilson should see a high volume of pass attempts each week.
My Projection: 33 pass attempts (OVER)
New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones' prop for pass attempts this week is 31.5 (o/u)
For the first time in this long rivalry, both teams will be starting a rookie quarterback. Many would expect two ball-control offenses who intend to hide their rookie quarterbacks. We already mentioned why the Jets may throw the ball often.
There are a few reasons as to why Jones can be more involved than some may be thinking for a rookie quarterback. First, the Jets defensive staff is facing a rookie quarterback in Jones and may make an effort to "force him to beat them".
Secondly, the Jets have an inexperienced secondary and I would expect Josh McDaniels and Bill Belichick to look to exploit that. Lastly, in Week 1, Jones had an aDOT of six and a half yards per attempt which was the seventh-lowest number for quarterbacks with a minimum of 23 dropbacks.
With Jones seeing an aDOT this low, it makes sense that he could throw a high volume of pass attempts and take advantage of a banged-up Jets linebacking corps and secondary.
Jones attempted 39 passes in his Week 1 debut, completing 74 percent of them against a better Miami Dolphins defense.
My Projection: 32 pass attempts (OVER)
New England Patriots running back Damien Harris has a rushing yards prop bet of 72.5 (o/u)
Damien Harris has taken over as the new lead running back for the Patriots. In his first game on the 2021 season, he rushed 23 times for 100 yards averaging 4.3 yards per attempt.
This was in a game that the Patriots ended up losing, but they were making an effort to run the ball near the end so they could ice the game. Unfortunately, Harris had a fumble which ultimately cost the Patriots the game.
This week, the Patriots are six-point favorites and that usually bodes well for the team's running back. As teams get a lead and look to run the clock, coaches will lean on their run game to keep the clock running.
This means that the attempts should be there for Harris and he should see north of 20 rush attempts in this one.
If Harris sees 20 rush attempts and averages a very pedestrian four yards per carry, then this prop should be attainable.
My Projection: 118 rushing yards (OVER)