Why Garrett Wilson could lead the NFL in receptions this season

When the New York Jets agreed to terms with Justin Fields and brought in Tanner Engstrand as offensive coordinator, the blueprint for a modernized passing game came into focus.

For Garrett Wilson, one of the league’s most fluid route-runners, it's become as favorable an environment the young wideout has been surrounded by since hearing his name called on night one of the draft years ago.

The ability to separate against man and zone is a skill even the most gifted of pass-catchers dream of. It's the foundational trait of high-volume receivers at the NFL level, and according to NFL Next Gen Stats, Wilson finished inside the top 15 in average separation per target in 2024 despite the dysfunction for New York on the offensive side of the ball.

It's a combination of sudden footwork, tempo variation, and a wide release catalog that allows elite wideouts to consistently win early in routes, a must for timing-based passing structures and a nightmare to cover from a defensive perspective.

Where some receivers thrive only on vertical routes or schemed touches, Wilson has no issue generating earned targets — looks that come because he is consistently open within the quarterback’s progression.

Like a Davante Adams (Rams) or Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions), receivers who live at the top of the league in raw target share, the ability to consistently create throwing windows, no matter the depth of the route, is an art form.

The arrival of Justin Fields

The quarterback shift is equally important to Wilson's production. While few will give credit to Fields' talents under center, he's proven in his prior stops that he's comfortable testing tight windows between the numbers and has a strong background in rhythm passing when paired with reliable separators.

At Ohio State, his connection was obvious with Wilson, where the pair shared a locker room for two seasons, leading the Buckeyes to a 20-2 overall record in those combined respective campaigns. Their rapport was predicated on trust, timing, and high-percentage completions on intermediate targets only to lift the cover of a defense and execute a hole shot 50 yards downfield.

Fields’ quick release and velocity also pair naturally with Wilson’s ability to create space at the top of his routes. Heavy volume on slants, digs, and option routes should be expected — areas where Wilson’s nuance can shine and Fields’ ball placement could flourish.

Tanner Engstrand’s Influence

The hire of Engstrand could be the hidden catalyst. His background in Detroit under Ben Johnson showcased a system that emphasized motion and route layering to create mismatches and stress defenders horizontally.

In Detroit, St. Brown became the centerpiece, running a heavy diet of option and choice routes that gave QB Jared Goff easy completions and kept the offense ahead of the sticks. Wilson can be Engstrand’s St. Brown, but with more explosive traits to go over the top and threaten every blade of grass.

By aligning Wilson everywhere — X, Z, slot — the Jets can force Wilson into free access releases and force opponents into coverage binds. Motion also plays a role.

Pre-snap movement, as much as it is an indicator for man/zone, can also disguise route concepts and alignment, presenting Wilson a runway and eliminating jams at the line. Ultimately, it creates higher-percentage throws for Fields and funnels more looks toward Wilson without the risk of contested traffic on every snap.

With Engstrand scheming him into free releases and Fields delivering more accurate, on-time throws, his catch rate — which hovered around 60% — could reasonably take a jump. That efficiency bump, applied to his existing volume, projects him into the elite territory of potential production.

Now, for context, to lead the NFL in receptions, Wilson must outpace names like Ja'Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Puka Nacua, and others. Each has unique offensive environments that funnel targets their way, but Wilson has an underrated advantage: lack of target competition.

While the Jets have secondary options (Josh Reynolds, Allen Lazard, Breece Hall out of the backfield), there is no second receiver on the roster who profiles as a true 1B. Additionally, their top flex weapon at tight end is rookie Mason Taylor.

And while the 2025 Day 2 pick in Taylor projects well down the line, touches could remain minimal as he gets his feet wet at the NFL level. Resultantly, it could see Wilson’s target share exceed 30% — a threshold only the very best in football can touch.

Furthermore, the Jets’ schedule in 2025 is loaded with secondaries that can be manipulated with quick game and option routes. Against aggressive defenses like Buffalo and New England, expect Wilson to be Fields’ first read in the progression.

Against softer zone structures like Miami, expect Engstrand to design spacing concepts to feed Wilson underneath. In both scenarios, however, the game plan leans into volume rather than explosive efficiency.

Ultimately, all the elements align for Wilson’s leap from a budding star to an NFL reception leader. The advanced traits — elite separation, footwork, and processing speed — have always been present. Now, with a quarterback who can accentuate his strengths and a coordinator who will prioritize him as the offensive hub, Wilson’s ceiling is raised.

For Jets fans, the bigger picture is what this means for the franchise. A high-volume, high-efficiency Wilson is more than just a statistical feat — it’s the marker of an offense that has finally modernized, and of a quarterback-receiver duo capable of threatening defenses at an elite level each and every week.

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