How many wins do the NY Jets need to make the playoffs?

There has been a lot of buzz in the offseason about what a potential NY Jets 2023 record might look like. With the schedule now released, it is also easier to start projecting wins and losses, and of course, every analyst is all over it with projections and win totals.

Vegas currently has the Jets' over/under set at 9.5 games, possibly suggesting they could reach double-digit wins for the first time since 2015 when they won 10 games but still missed the playoffs.

Would 10 wins be enough in 2023 to make the playoffs, though? In a loaded AFC stacked with contenders like the Bills, Bengals, and Chiefs, as well as aspiring championship teams like the Dolphins, Chargers, Jaguars, Browns, and Ravens, the Jets need to win as many games as possible to make the playoffs. 

With that in mind, I thought it would be fun to simulate the NFL regular season. Using the 2023-2024 Next Playoff Predictors website, I picked winners for every game throughout the entire course of the season. The results are below.

NY Jets record

I have the Jets finishing the season 11-6 overall. They were 6-3 at home and 5-3 on the road. They lost to the Bills, Eagles, and Chiefs at home but beat the Patriots, Chargers, Dolphins, Falcons, Texans, and Commanders at MetLife Stadium.

They lost road contests at Buffalo, New England, and Miami but picked up wins on the road against the Browns, Raiders, Giants, Broncos, and Cowboys. This puts them just 2-4 in the division, but I think Buffalo is a really good team, and splitting with both Miami and New England seems logical.

Division and Conference standings

After simulating every game, the AFC East standings featured the Bills at 12-5, the Jets at 11-6, the Dolphins at 9-8, and the Patriots at 7-10. Based on the calculations, the Jets would finish 3-4 versus playoff teams, 2-6 versus “good” teams, and a perfect 9-0 against “bad” teams.

This would also put the Jets as the fifth seed in the AFC playoffs. The four division winners would be the Bills, Chiefs, Bengals, and Jaguars, and the wild card teams would be the Jets, Chargers, and Ravens. 

This means the Jets would be on the road to face the Jaguars in the first round of the playoffs before a road trip against the top-seeded Chiefs in a potential round two matchup.

This also means that in order for the Jets to win the division this year, they need to get to 12 or 13 wins, depending on who the wins are against. To make the playoffs, they really need to contend for 11 wins. Even a 10-7 record might not be enough in the AFC to earn a wild-card spot.

Other notes

According to the simulation, the Jets would finish with the 10th-best record in the entire NFL. In the NFC, the Eagles, Cowboys, 49ers, Vikings, and Buccaneers all finished at 11-6 or better.

Seven teams finished with fewer than five wins: the Panthers (2-15), Texans (3-14), Colts (4-13), Commanders (4-13), Bears (5-12), Broncos (5-12) and Raiders (5-12). 14 teams finished with losing records, and 16 teams finished with winning records.