The NY Jets will travel to Foxborough in Week 11 to take on the New England Patriots in what could be one of the most important games in recent franchise history.
The 6-3 Jets have an opportunity to surge to first place in the AFC East with a victory and could even propel themselves into the No. 1 seed in the conference if a few results go their way. However, a loss will likely send them into last place in the division.
As important as this game is from a standings perspective, it's arguably even more important from an emotional point of view. The Patriots are the last demon the new-look Jets have yet to exorcise. Winning this game would complete the organization's transformation.
Let's take a look at some of the best bets to make ahead of this Sunday's matchup. All odds are courtesy of FanDuel.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
Best NY Jets Bets Week 11
NY Jets vs. New England Patriots UNDER 38.5 (-114)
No NFL game has a lower projected point total than this week's Jets/Patriots matchup. But even with a low over/under set at 38.5, it's still probably wise to bet the under.
These two teams rank first and second in fewest EPA allowed per play since Week 6. At the same time, though, they also rank 31st and 32nd in offensive EPA per play.
This is quite literally a battle of the two best defenses and two worst offenses in the NFL over the last five weeks. It's hard to imagine a scenario where either team scores more than 25 points barring turnovers/special teams meltdowns.
Michael Carter OVER 39.5 rushing yards (-113)
The Jets' running game has managed to remain relevant even in the absence of rookie sensation Breece Hall. Much of that has been a credit to the team's offensive line.
Michael Carter rushed for 76 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries two weeks ago. Despite this, he's projected at just 39.5 yards this week. That feels like a bet that begging to hit the over.
The Patriots won't have top defensive lineman Christian Barmore while the Jets will look to carry over the momentum from a very encouraging offensive line performance in Week 9.
The kicker here is hoping Carter gets enough touches to make this happen. This isn't the safest bet, but I would feel comfortable enough taking the over.
Rhamondre Stevenson 40+ alt rushing yards (-500)
Much like the Jets, the Patriots have won games this season on the back of their running game, and the team's leading rusher, Rhamondre Stevenson, has done a lot of the heavy lifting.
Stevenson has rushed for 60+ yards in six of his nine games this season and has become the clear-cut RB1 in New England. He faces a tall task against an excellent Jets run defense in Week 11, but he could still make some waves.
Stevenson's 64.5 rushing yard prop for this week is a little high for my liking, but I'd feel very comfortable assuming he will finish with at least 40 yards on the ground.
Expect both of these teams to lean on their running games and Stevenson should be a primary benefactor of that.