Tier 3: Guaranteed must-starts that will help you win it all
3. Aaron Rodgers, QB
Aaron Rodgers is here for obvious reasons, but what might not be as obvious is that, even if he plays at his highest possible level, it may not be enough to surpass (from a fantasy standpoint) the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts if they are playing at theirs.
The league has changed — QBs now run the football. Rodgers was always a great runner and someone that needed to be accounted for, but last year was his first season without 100+ rushing yards since 2007. He had one rushing touchdown last year compared to three apiece the two years prior.
At 39 years old, it's natural to fine-tune your game to your longevity, and it appears that's what Rodgers has done by opting to rush less recently.
As a result, as a fantasy option, I definitely wouldn't reach for him as you may reach for the other three names I listed in this section, but if he falls to you, you'll know you have a reliable option at QB that you can win a championship with.
2. Garrett Wilson, WR
The further we get through this list, the less I have to explain. Garrett Wilson was very fantasy-relevant last season when he accrued 83 catches for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns with the worst quarterback situation in the entire NFL.
Even if Rodgers is washed up (not likely), it would still be a major improvement from what Wilson endured while learning about the league as a whole firsthand as a rookie. I think it's very safe to assume he will surpass all three of those numbers (83-1,103-4) and emerge as one of the league's best wide receivers this year.
His impressive vertical leap and elite shiftiness might also earn him a few red zone jump balls for touchdowns, but I'm expecting most of his work to be done getting yardage between the 20s.
Wilson should be the main factor in most drives and explode for some big plays down the field fairly routinely to keep moving chains and putting pressure on opposing defenses.
It might seem crazy to you that he's not number one but please, hear my reasoning!
1. Breece Hall, RB
I went into great detail earlier this offseason about the historic pace Breece Hall was on at the time of his devasting injury last season. To sum up that piece, he had 124 scrimmage yards per game in the 3.5 games he played as a full-time starter — that's 12.4 fantasy points per game just by yardage.
When you factor in catches (PPR, half PPR) and touchdowns, then you can see how easily he could creep into a 20+ points-per-game type of player. It's not uncommon to see elite running backs come back from a devastating injury and put the league back on notice (see: Derrick Henry).
For guys like Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley, they actually overcame several injuries before returning to their 20+ points per game form this past season.
If Hall is to follow in their footsteps and continue to get better as any 22-year-old player should, then it's arguable that he could finish as the No. 1 player in all of fantasy. That is his ceiling — the absolute top of the fantasy league
Worst-case scenario (assuming he stays healthy) is that he's stuck in a timeshare with the RB2, as I outlined earlier in this list, so he never gets fully unleashed and remains busy in the red zone.
That'd still be good for 10 points per game without a touchdown and then 16 or 22 if he were to get one or two scores that week.
His floor may be lower than Garrett Wilson's by a little, but his ceiling is so high that if you're determined to draft a Jet this year, your hunt should truly start with Breece Hall.