Jets' Geno Smith may dominate in 2026 as stat proves he was NFL's unluckiest

The New York Jets are betting the state of their 2026 offense (and the jobs of Aaron Glenn and Frank Reich) on the notion that former second-round pick Geno Smith still has some gas left in the tank after a nightmare of a 2025 season with the Las Vegas Raiders. They may have some data on their side that proves a positive regression could be coming this season.

Pro Football Focus created a stat called net luck, which subtracts non-turnover-worthy interceptions incurred versus league average from turnover-worthy interceptions avoided. PFF postulates that avoiding interceptions is not necessarily a translatable skill year over year, and it wants to find which QBs benefited the most from lucky breaks.

This metric ranks Smith as the unluckiest quarterback in the league last year, saying that he has 18 turnover-worthy plays mixed in with his 17 interceptions. By comparison, the luckiest QB in the league was Matthew Stafford, who has 21 turnover-worthy plays and just eight interceptions.

Smith was intercepted five times on what were deemed non-turnover-worthy throws, and his turnover-worthy plays being picked off at a 66.7 percent rate is well above the 49% average across the league. Perhaps there is a regression to the mean coming for Smith, especially as he suits up in a more stable offensive environment.

Jets QB Geno Smith ranked as unluckiest quarterback in 2025 season

Smith had to deal with a checked-out offensive coordinator in Chip Kelly, one of the worst offensive lines in the league, and an offense that had no perimeter playmakers once Brock Bowers went down. The Jets have rarely been viewed as a safe haven for quarterbacks, but Darren Mougey has built up quite a solid collection of playmakers.

Not only did Mougey use two first-round picks on Kenyon Sadiq and Omar Cooper Jr. to add to a room that already had Garrett Wilson, Mason Taylor, and Adonai Mitchell, but he is bringing back the same offensive line that was the crown jewel of what was a ghoulish 2025 season. Smith will be able to grip it and rip it much more effectively.

It's entirely possible Smith may be cooked, and his propensity to take bad sacks throughout his career may put a hard cap on his potential. However, the Jets are betting they are getting Seahawks Geno and not Raiders Geno. The data shows that hoping for that may not be a complete pipe dream after all.

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