Jets fans are getting one thing very wrong about David Bailey

New York Jets fans, and seemingly much of the NFL Draft community, seem to agree on one thing when it comes to Texas Tech edge rusher David Bailey. He’s the “safe” pick, at least when compared to Ohio State hybrid linebacker Arvell Reese.

It’s an easy label to slap on a player who is likely the most polished pass rusher in the class. Compared to someone like Reese, who often gets tagged as a “projection,” Bailey feels like the more reliable option on the surface.

But that narrative doesn’t really hold up beyond said surface-level observations. That's because being a more "proven" commodity doesn’t automatically make you a "safer" pick. And in this case, it might be causing people to overlook the reality of both prospects.

Bailey should not be viewed as a safer alternative to Reese, and in reality, the latter is likely the more complete football player at this stage.

David Bailey is not the safe Jets draft alternative to Arvell Reese

Reese gets labeled as a projection, and for many, that immediately translates to risk. But that ignores what he already is right now. Reese is already an NFL-caliber off-ball linebacker with very intriguing pass-rush traits and versatility.

You’re not starting from scratch with him. Even if the full-time edge rusher transition never fully materializes, his floor looks a lot like an Anthony Barr, a Jamie Collins, or an Andrew Van Ginkel type of player. That’s already a borderline Pro Bowl-caliber, versatile linebacker.

Bailey, on the other hand, tends to be viewed as the finished product. And in some ways, he is. He’s the best pure pass rusher in this class. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t real questions about his projection at the next level.

Right now, Bailey likely isn’t a three-down player. His run defense remains a weakness, and if you’re taking him at No. 2 overall, you’re betting that part of his game takes a significant leap. That’s projection. It's the same thing people knock Reese for.

There’s also the question of ceiling. Bailey will be 23 before his rookie season even begins. What if his pass-rush ability is already close to maxed out? What if the run defense never develops to a point where he can stay on the field for every down? Those are also risks, even if they don’t get talked about as much.

That’s the unfortunate reality of this draft class. There is no obvious, can’t-miss blue-chip player at a premium position sitting there at No. 2 overall. Every option comes with some level of uncertainty.

Reese. Bailey. Rueben Bain. Even the higher-floor names at other positions, like Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs, or Jeremiyah Love, come with limitations in terms of positional value and overall impact.

This isn’t so much a choice between safe and risky so much as it is a choice between different types of bets.

Bailey might be the more proven commodity today. But he still needs to become more than what he currently is to justify that pick. And that’s exactly the part of the conversation that keeps getting lost.

Both Arvell Reese and David Bailey are projections, just in different ways. You might prefer the bet on Bailey, but that doesn’t make him the “safer” option. It’s simply a different wager on upside.