If you want to beat the New York Jets in 2026-- just play man coverage.
Of the teams the Jets have played, three are top five in the NFL in playing the most man coverage, two are top ten in zone, and the Packers are dead in the middle.
In other words, the Jets’ schedule could not be a more perfect slate for analysis.
Geno Smith clearly has a preference
In the first three games against zone-heavy teams, Jets quarterback Geno Smith threw for 783 yards, four touchdowns, zero interceptions, and had a 75.5% average completion rate.
After three weeks, the Jets’ offense ranked 17th in scoring and 11th in passing.
In the three games since, against man schemes-- 553 yards, three touchdowns, one interception, and a 60% completion rate. In that span, the Jets rank 30th in scoring and 23rd in passing.
Run the dang ball
The answer to man coverage is typically to run the football.
It’s quite simple-- when several defenders are running down the field with receivers and have their backs to the ball, you should theoretically be able to run until the cows come home, or at least until they turn around.
For anyone crying anything about Breece Hall right now, I'll kindly stop you there. Braelon Allen has averaged a full yard more per carry this season. While it will be great to have Hall back, the issue is not personnel. It's the willingness to change.
In the last three games, when facing man coverage teams, the Jets and Allen have averaged 4.0 yards per carry. Up from 3.2 yards per carry in the first three weeks against zone-dominant groups.
The strange thing is, even though yards are up, attempts have actually gone down (28 per game in weeks 1-3, 24 per game in Weeks 4-6).
Though not quite egregious numbers-wise, it is unfortunately an example of the very mentality that has driven Jet fans to asylums across the country for years - never change.
Is it written into all Jets contracts, signed by every staff member and player? Or is it more like a secret society Eyes Wide Shut mantra situation?
Whatever it is, it's obviously embedded into the DNA of every aspect of the organization.
How are the Jets currently measuring success?
"Are we winning?" No.
"Are we scoring points?" Also no.
"Are we at least moving the ball?" Final no.
If the Jets' offensive staff has been using a Magic 8 Ball to ask these same questions week after week, it's time for a hero in the building to spike it on Frank Reich's office floor.
Hating to lose is not the same as loving to win
The Jets offense currently ranks 27th in points per game, 25th in yards per game, and 22nd in passing yards per game.
Now close your eyes and imagine if those numbers belonged to any of the league's top coaches. Picture Sean McVay standing at a podium. Or Kyle Shanahan talking to his staff behind closed doors.
In your vision, are those men calm? Or are veins popping and chairs flying?
You can convince yourself this is simply a difference in coaching styles all you want, but it's about self-expectations and the approach to change.
If these coaches had those numbers, first of all, they wouldn't keep them for six weeks. But if for some reason they did, I'm clearing my entire schedule to watch that Week 7 game because it's about to be the most insane offensive strategy of all time.
Double reverses, flea flickers, wild formations. Whatever it takes. Because that's how a coach who hates losing acts when it's becoming a trend.
Everyone involved with this Jets offense is exhibiting signs of insanity
Unfortunately, Reich and staff have appeared to either accept their own mediocrity or are under some delusion that this is a trust-the-process kind of situation.
From a pass game standpoint, through six games, the approach has looked disappointingly similar. Even considering the above man vs. zone analysis and the major weather differences between games, the strategy for throwing the ball has remained fixed.
A pass/run split of exactly fifty/fifty, an agonizingly predictable use of route concepts, and a general lack of creativity within this offense are becoming easier for opposing teams to stop by the week.
Football, more than any other sport, gets harder as a season goes on. While things like injuries and playoff pushes contribute, by far the biggest challenge is the need to evolve.
Every week, you put your strategies on display for the world to see. As you do, every team in the league is looking for patterns they can use to beat you.
When it comes to the Jets' air attack, I leave a sliver of hope (thanks to Omar Cooper Jr.) that this scheme can still hum if everyone is healthy.
Otherwise, my personal feelings are starting to match those of the defenses tasked with stopping it-- that we've seen just about enough.
Overall Rating: 6.7 ⭐️
Like going to therapy and realizing how much of what's wrong with you is your parents' fault. You're still a mess, but at least you can start the acceptance phase.
