Everything Jets fans need to know about LSU QB Garret Nussmeier

It's that time of year again. The NFL Draft, otherwise known as the New York Jets' annual Super Bowl, returns in just a handful of weeks. Every year, this is an adventure (an important one) within the walls of the $75 million Florham Park headquarters.

But this season is more important than most years. This season, the Jets might need their future franchise quarterback. This is a position the Jets have found themselves in every three to five years since Joe Namath left Broadway for Hollywood in 1977.

It's unclear if the Jets are sure to take a QB. What is clear is that they'll need one soon. And it appears likely they'll opt for one in this draft. So I'll be releasing a series of pieces evaluating the Jets' best options at that position.

In this piece, we'll examine a quarterback who once appeared destined for greatness, and now feels like the complete unknown. LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has a ton of ability. That much is clear. What's not as clear is why he was so inconsistent throughout his collegiate career, and what it says about his ultimate potential.

On this page

1. Garret Nussmeier's Background
2. Garret Nussmeier's Pros
3. Garret Nussmeier's Cons
4. QB Value Score
5. Garret Nussmeier Final Evaluation and Grade

Garret Nussmeier's Background

Nussmeier is one of the rare Division I athletes these days who has spent his entire career in one place. A hometown kid from Lake Charles, he arrived in Baton Rouge in 2021. He spent the next five seasons in purple and gold, highlighted by his outstanding 2024 campaign, where he tossed 29 touchdown passes and passed for 4,052 yards on a 64.2% completion percentage.

2025 was a massive disappointment for the young quarterback, as he sustained an abdominal injury that totally warped his production. He finished the season with just 12 touchdowns and under 2,000 yards passing in just 9 games played. He went into the season projected as the potential first quarterback selected in this upcoming draft, and he left the season a walking question mark.

He's seen as a little bit reckless and a little bit dicey under pressure. And while even his staunchest critics will tell you he's a good natural pocket passer with an NFL-type arm, his poor performance last season has led to a stark decline in his stock, despite the injury.

Garret Nussmeier's Pros

1. Big arm and natural passing talent

The one thing you never have to question about Nussmeier is his ability to spin it. Certain contexts can make him uncomfortable and alter his passes, sure. But when he has the time and room to drop back, plant his right foot in the dirt, and fire a spiral, he does so about as well as you can ask anyone to.

He has the arm talent of a pro, and he has had it for several years now. Even from inconvenient angles and off-platform, he makes "wow" passes with both touch and zip. You'd think this is a given for a future pro, but QBs lean on all manners of skill to succeed at the highest level. He leans on his passing.

He can drop throws in a bucket from over the top or rifle balls into traffic with pinpoint accuracy. He's not restricted to a specific segment of passes. He can make any throw the book has to offer.

2. Comfort level in the pocket

While he's not incredibly fast and he isn't what anyone would describe as "quick-twitched," he does have a knack for climbing, bouncing, and bailing back in the pocket to evade peripheral pressure. He does this whilst maintaining balance and recovering with proper footwork to deliver an on-balance pass. Unless you bring him to the ground, he isn't easy to knock off his spot.

I'm not arguing that his decision-making is excellent under pressure. That's a separate issue that has more to do with his confidence and response to being sped up than with his comfort in the pocket. But when it comes to instinctively shuffling his feet to operate within the confines of his offensive line protection, he is a natural.

You see many young quarterbacks when forced to run away from defenders, struggle to regain their positioning. Sometimes they even drift away from the pocket entirely when they didn't have to. Nussmeier has an innate ability to quickly abandon his spot after dropping back, only to recover and reset with veteran-like ease.

3. High-level processor

Half the battle for quarterbacks is their physical ability. But the other half is completely mental. And it's not just intelligence. It's speed. How fast can your brain read and react to what's going on around it? For the most part, it comes down to football instinct.

This is a realm where Nussmeier excels. When you don't have the tools to make plays on your own and you're mostly limited to playing behind the line of scrimmage, you need to be great at getting the ball to your playmakers. He has both the arm talent and the processing skills to consistently get the ball to his targets. For all his faults, quickly assessing the defense in front of him and pivoting in the right direction is not one of them.

This processing ability allows him to transition through progressions. It's one of the most crucial skill sets for a quarterback, yet it often gets ignored. Nussmeier has the football intellect to recognize when a target is not an option and efficiently shifts his eyes to the next receiver.

He gets overzealous when rushers speed up his clock. But that doesn't mean he isn't well aware of how to get off one target and quickly focus on the next when he absolutely has to. This is an invaluable trait that will go a long way as he develops.

Garret Nussmeier's Cons

1. Lacks difference-making athleticism or size

While he has the ability to shuffle his feet and throw on the run, Nussmeier isn't running away from many defenders at the next level. He's not going to break a game wide open with a 65-yard rush. He isn't going to break tackles against big defenders in space. And he's also not going to make 90-yard passes while falling on his back like Pat Mahomes. He isn't an elite athlete, as far as the pros are concerned.

He doesn't possess that elite athleticism, nor an elite build. He stands at a mere 6'1 and weighs just 205 pounds. It's not like he's Kyler Murray, but he's far from Cam Newton. He has a really strong arm that he can deploy accurately, but it's also never going to rival the top guys in football, either. This is a quarterback who will have to maximize his skills and mental acuity to succeed. His physical tools won't make up for mistakes like those of some other young QBs.

2. Damaged goods

There is a reason that we're discussing Garrett Nussmeier as a potential pick in the later rounds, rather than up there with Fernando Mendoza. There was a time when a top-five pick appeared to be his destiny. It wasn't that long ago, actually. As recently as this past September, plenty of pundits had him slated as this class's number one quarterback.

Unfortunately for Nussmeier, 2025 wasn't the season he had hoped it would be. And that was largely the result of his inability to excel through injury.

Prior to kicking off the season, during routine "routes on air" in which the QB throws against no defense, he somehow hurt his abdomen. This injury lingered all year and took the life out of his passes. He was uncharacteristically underthrowing passes. His balls didn't have the same speed as before. He wasn't the 2024/25 Nussmeier.

This is why his Pro Football Focus pass grade dropped from 81.3 to 76.4. This is why his average depth of target plummeted from 9.5 yards to 7.0. This is why he went from 525 passing attempts in 13 games to 288 in 9.

The core injury he sustained derailed him completely. Is that someone you want to bet on moving forward? Maybe, if you truly believe in his upside. But it's certainly more con than pro.

3. Reckless decisions & mistakes under pressure

For his high-level football IQ and processing skills, he sure makes a lot of pointless errors. Usually, his turnovers are the result of trying way too much and trusting his arm far too confidently. He doesn't consistently misread coverages and fail to pick up blitzes. He just suffers from overconfidence, especially when he's pressured and has to decide quickly whether to abort a broken play or take a one in 1,000 chance at fixing it.

This is a negative trait that only exists in guys with elite arm talent. Sometimes, having an arm that bails you out of trouble all the time can be a double-edged sword that eats into your patience. You see it at every level. The same gene that makes certain guys great can also be their downfall at times.

It's certainly a good thing that Nussmeier has enough arm skill to feel so confident. And while it's led to a hefty portion of his lowest moments, the data also suggests that he's still ahead of the curve compared to his peers. His 55.9 passing grade when pressured is just about as good as anyone else's I've evaluated.

That doesn't mean he can continue to treat each play like he's Brett Favre in the fourth quarter of a conference championship game. He'll need to reel in a lot of his instinct at the next level. And that's much easier said than done.

QB Value Score

I've developed a statistic to score young quarterbacks. I took the statistics and Pro Football Focus grades I value most and consolidated them into a single number. There are 13 metrics. From most crucial to least, they are as follows (I'll also include Nussmeier's numbers for each metric/grade).

All you have to do is multiply each metric by its corresponding number. Then add them and carry your decimal two places to the left. That provides you with your Quarterback Value (QBV). You can typically expect this number to be between 40 and 70.

• QBV: 59.26

When I watched his 2025 tape, my gut tells me that Nussmeier isn't a starting-level pro in any universe. But his 2024 tape tells me something different. And interestingly enough, so does my data, as even in a season of disappointment, he finished with one of the highest QBVs of all the guys evaluated.

It doesn't take a brain surgeon to figure out which common denominator changed from 2024 to 2025. His strange abdominal injury severely limited a lot of his physical ability. His arm strength wasn't there, he was laboring, and he was likely subconsciously avoiding hits. Who wants to get decked and sustain contact at both the point of the hit and then upon a hard landing in the dirt, when you're nursing an abdominal injury?

The numbers, his previous year's footage, and this season's context lead me to believe he has a much higher upside than I originally thought.

Garret Nussmeier Final Evaluation and Grade

I rely on a combination of metric-driven analysis, results-based statistics, and the old-fashioned eye test to evaluate quarterbacks. After considering all factors, below is my final prospect grade, along with some pro comparisons ranging from the most realistic scenario to the absolute ceiling.

• FINAL GRADE: C prospect. My eyes tell me he is a D+ to a C-. The numbers tell me he's a B. My gut tells me he's somewhere in the middle. The upside is there. When healthy, he was a highly productive player. But is it not concerning that he's already entering the league with injury concerns? Who knows. I tend to be cautious about guys entering the league pre-battered, but an abdominal injury doesn't worry me as much as a leg or a shoulder injury would. So I won't ding him too much for that. But I also can't let him off the hook entirely.

• COMPS: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Geno Smith, Derrick Carr, Tony Romo

If his injury turns out to be a one-season problem, and he lands in the right situation, I see a world where he turns into a high-level starter who makes big plays down the field. He has enough mobility to dodge pressure and get the ball off. But he doesn't have enough mobility to change the game in that way. While he processes fast, he also disregards the sensible side of his instinct for risky turnover-worthy throws.

He'll be feast or famine. Even if he turns into a high-level pro, he'll still frustrate some fans with his occasional bone-headed turnover. I'd say if the Jets decide to select Nussmeier, they're better off taking that swing if he's still around on Day 3. While he's a guy with the upside to make people look dumb some day, I don't think it's time for Darren Mougey and co. to take big risks at this stage in their tenure.

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