Everything Jets fans need to know about Miami QB Carson Beck

It's that time of year again. The NFL Draft, otherwise known as the NY Jets' annual Super Bowl, returns in just a few weeks. Every year, this is an adventure (an important one) within the walls of the $75 million Florham Park headquarters.

But this season is more important than most years. This season, the Jets might need their future franchise quarterback. This is a position the Jets have found themselves in every three to five years since Joe Namath left Broadway for Hollywood in 1977.

It's unclear if the Jets are sure to take a QB. What is clear is that they'll need one soon. And it appears likely they'll opt for one in this draft. So I'll be releasing a series of pieces evaluating the Jets' best options at that position.

In this piece, we'll focus on a name that football fans should be more than familiar with by this point. Carson Beck, coming off a national championship loss for Miami at the hands of Indiana, is finally hitting the pros after six seasons at the collegiate level.

Does his experience playing for two of the most storied football programs in the country and playing on some of the biggest stages in the sport make him a fit for the bright lights of New York?

On this page:

1. Carson Beck's Background
2. Carson Beck's Pros
3. Carson Beck's Cons
4. QB Value Score
5. Carson Beck Evaluation and Grade

Carson Beck's Background

Carson Beck is as confounding as he is tantalizing. To some, he's a prototypical NFL quarterback with experience in big moments, and all the tangibles of a starter at the next level. To others, he's a talented passer with a decided lack of physical tools and a nasty habit of making crucial mistakes.

After three seasons of riding pine at Georgia, combining for just 58 passing attempts on two different national championship teams, he broke out in 2023 with 3,941 yards and a 24/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His first opportunity to lead the Bulldogs was a successful one. But 2024 saw a slight decline, followed by a UCL injury in the SEC championship.

After five roller coaster seasons in Athens, Beck transferred to Miami, where he would come within a touchdown of delivering them a national championship. And while his final season and collegiate tenure ended with a game-deciding interception, he had a great career.

So why is he considered one of the more polarizing prospects in the draft? Why is he not a slam-dunk first-round pick? Why did I call him confounding a couple of paragraphs ago?

Let's look at what makes him enticing, but also terrifying for pro scouts.

Carson Beck's Pros

1. Touch & accuracy

Beck hits receivers right in the bread basket when he has time to set his feet, and he often gets the pass out before they even complete their break. He plays with excellent anticipation, making him a dream for receivers who feast on underneath and medium-range passes.

In his three years of serious playing time, his adjusted completion percentage never dipped below 75. And he doesn't simply complete passes. He places them in spots that allow his receivers plenty of YAC opportunity.

Just imagine him hitting Garret Wilson right in the chest the second he turns his head around on a sluggo route. That has six points written all over it.

2. Top-tier game management

You can trust Beck to manage an offense. He can read defenses both pre- and post-snap. He shuffles through his progressions as needed and plays with excellent timing.

His mistakes are the result of taking futile risks and forcing passes that aren't there. They aren't the result of defenses fooling him. He manipulates defenders with his eyes. He pumps fakes to draw DBs in his desired direction. But the best thing about his game management is his timing.

Whether it's quick passes, screens, play action, or five-step drops, he is always on time. He has pro-level footwork, and his cadence allows his skill-position teammates to move fluidly alongside him. Say what you want about Beck, but he has his offenses under control and humming like an engine.

3. Physical profile

No one is saying that Beck is Cam Newton. But he's not Kyler Murray either. Standing at 6-foot-4 and weighing 220 pounds, he is built like a pro. He can see over the line of scrimmage, which is a weapon when parlayed with his above-average ability to read defenses post-snap. He sees everything out there.

If you squint your eyes, he looks like a pro already. What he lacks in athleticism, he makes up for in build. Not to throw out a crazy name here, but his physical profile isn't far off from Tom Brady's coming out of Michigan...

What? Too much?

4. Mechanics & instinct

Beck just knows how to play the position. He has his faults – plenty of them. But the ability to step under center as a pure passer is not one of them.

He naturally steps up in the pocket when he has to. He knows to keep his eyes downfield as he trots out of the pocket, and he can toss a touch pass off his back foot without much trouble. Plain and simple, he has a great feel for the rock.

He stands to improve his decision-making, he sometimes falters amidst pressure, and he's no physical specimen, but he's a natural with the ball in his hands. He has a good throwing motion, good footwork, and good timing.

You won't see him generating much in the open field with his legs, but he can comfortably buy himself time by dancing from one side of the pocket to the next. Short of immediate interior pressure, not much can knock him off his spot. He doesn't let plays break because of one unwelcome variable.

Carson Beck's Cons

1. Physical tools & athleticism

While he has good size and frame, he's not going to generate offense through sheer force of will. He doesn't have a rocket that fires the ball 70 yards on a rope. He doesn't run away from faster edge rushers. Like Ty Simpson, he has to develop elite accuracy and defense manipulation to reach his ceiling. He can't make up for mistakes if he doesn't have the physical tools to do so.

He can keep plays alive with his nimble footwork at times. But he's not running away from anyone for too long, he's not breaking tackles down the field, and he's not firing bullseyes that whistle past defensive backs.

Most great quarterbacks aren't so limited. This means it'll always be an uphill climb for Beck.

2. Struggles when pressured

When the pass rush caves in from the exterior, Beck is very adept at side-stepping defenders by moving laterally at the right time. But when the pressure is in his face, that's when his quintessential bad decision-making comes out to play.

When the rush up the middle gets to him, all hell breaks loose. This is likely because evading outside pressure often requires a simple slide of the feet, whereas bailing backwards in the opposite direction requires a semblance of quickness, balance, and recovery that he simply doesn't possess.

His percentage of pressures turned to sacks is just about average. But when the interior hurries don't result in a sack, they're often likely to result in a turnover.

If he can't fix this, plays are going to be blown up on impact when tackles penetrate the A gaps. And offenses cannot survive that consistently.

3. Inconsistent decision-making

He really doesn't have an excuse for this. I've already mentioned that Beck is good at reading defenses. He knows how to manage an offense effectively at a high level. It's not as though he gets confused out there and doesn't know when defenders are going to be there. He just puts the ball in harm's way when there is no need.

Sometimes this is due to pressure, as I just spoke about. But whatever the reason, it's been a big concern. He goes from Johnny Unitas to Jameis Winston in the snap of a finger. No disrespect to Jameis, but there's a reason that despite his immense talent, he's become nothing more than a journeyman backup.

Most QBs with Beck's touch and accuracy also don't struggle with interceptions. This means those interceptions are more a result of lazy judgment than a lack of judgment.

Think Chad Pennington's body with the mind of Jay Cutler. That's a troubling combination.

4. Limited downfield arm talent

We've already touched on Beck's questionable decision-making. I said that most of his turnovers come down to that.

But it becomes even more amplified when he can't make up for it with arm strength. When he takes shots in traffic downfield, the ball often dies before it ever stands a chance, floating on a silver platter for defensive backs.

I talked about how elite physical tools are just not there. But even the least athletic quarterbacks aren't inherently limited to underneath passing. Beck, unfortunately, just has a nasty habit of airing it out with ambition unbefitting of his arm strength.

If he learns not to force it, he can live with this. But Beck has not shown he has that kind of restraint. And he doesn't have a cannon on his shoulder to justify it.

QB Value Score

I've developed a statistic to score young quarterbacks. I took the statistics and Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades I value most and consolidated them into a single number. There are 13 metrics. From most crucial to least, they are as follows (I'll also include Carson Beck's number for each metric/grade).

All you have to do is multiply each metric by its corresponding number. Then add them and carry your decimal two places to the left. That provides you with your Quarterback Value (QBV). You can typically expect this number to be between 40 and 70.

• QBV: 56.48

As you can see, Beck's best graded passes are medium throws. This is where he's going to make his living. Unsurprisingly, his average depth of target is relatively short, and his big-time throw percentage is limited. This likely foreshadows his tendencies at the next level.

If the Jets plan to draft Beck, I wouldn't be comfortable doing so any earlier than pick 44. Even that might be high. I have him as my number five quarterback, and would prefer he go somewhere in the third round or later.

If the Jets can snag him in the fourth round, that'd be a worthy risk. I doubt he drops anywhere near there, though. If the Jets take him at 44, I'd be a little bit worried. But I do still see a potential path to success for Beck somewhere. It's just a narrower path than some of the other options under center.

Carson Beck Evaluation and Grade

I rely on a combination of metric-driven analysis, results-based statistics, and the old-fashioned eye test to evaluate quarterbacks. After considering all factors, below is my final prospect grade, along with some pro comparisons ranging from the most realistic scenario to the absolute ceiling.

• FINAL GRADE: C prospect. He is a high-variance guy, with a lot of upside and a lot of downside. His most likely fate is as a career backup, with an off-chance of developing into a high-level starter.

• COMPS: Matt Cassel, Brock Purdy, Jared Goff, Matt Ryan

I think Beck is too smart and too natural not to find a place in the league. While you might not want to trust him as the every-week starter, his game management and accuracy will allow him to captain ships for short periods of time.

If he cleans up his decision-making, improves his response to inside pressure, and learns to play within his physical limits, he can be a very solid starter for years and years. That's a lot to ask for. But I think it could be somewhere in him, even if very... very deep down.