Everything Jets fans need to know about Alabama QB Ty Simpson

It's that time of year again. The NFL Draft, otherwise known as the New York Jets' annual Super Bowl, returns in just two months. Every year, this is an adventure (an important one) within the walls of the $75 million Florham Park headquarters.

But this season is more important than most years. This season, the Jets might really need their future franchise quarterback. This is a position the Jets have found themselves in every three to five years since Joe Namath left Broadway for Hollywood in 1977.

It's unclear if the Jets are sure to take a QB. What is clear is that they'll need one soon. And it appears likely they'll opt for one in this draft. So, I'll be releasing a series of pieces evaluating the Jets' best options at that position.

We're going to leave out wunderkind Fernando Mendoza, as you can virtually pencil him in as the No. 1 pick already. Most of the experts will tell you, unequivocally, that Mendoza is the best QB in this draft, and for that reason, he just won't be an option for the Jets.

We'll kick things off with the odds-on favorite to be selected by New York at some point after the second overall pick. His name is Ty Simpson, a Tennessee native who took his talents to Alabama for college ball.

The Jets don't have a history with Alabama quarterbacks, do they?

On this page:

1. Ty Simpson's Background
2. Ty Simpson's Pros
3. Ty Simpson's Cons
4. QB Value Score
5. Ty Simpson Evaluation and Grade

Ty Simpson's Background

Simpson comes from Tennessee, where he won the Gatorade Tennessee Player of the Year award for his on-field accomplishments at Westview High School during his senior season. The 23-year-old QB is a coach's son, as his father, Jason, has been the head coach for the UT Martin Skyhawks since Ty was still an infant.

After a 12th-grade season that saw him toss for 2,827 yards and 41 touchdowns, with 11 rushing touchdowns as well, Simpson mulled offers from some of the biggest dogs in college football. Seemingly destined to stay south of the Mason-Dixon line, his offers came from Ole Miss, Clemson, and his hometown Volunteers.

However, he opted for a fourth offer from the University of Alabama. And after a combined 16 appearances with the Crimson Tide during his first three seasons, Simpson broke out as the full-time starter in his redshirt junior season this past year.

The 6-foot-2 prospect burst onto the scene with a workload foreign to most QBs. He led the conference with 473 passing attempts, completing them at a 64.5% rate, along with an impressive 28-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Simpson, clearly intelligent both on and off the field, doesn't lack confidence. Every interview you listen to, he oozes self-assurance and competitive fire. He profiles as a minimally athletic quarterback with a quick release, an excellent pocket presence, and as an elite line-of-scrimmage general.

Now that Dante Moore has spurned Gang Green, Simpson is everyone's prediction for the most likely alternative if the Jets still want to draft a rookie under center. There's a lot to like about him, but there's a lot to scratch your head about as well.

Ty Simpson's Pros

1. Pocket presence

No one will mistake Simpson for Michael Vick. And his first name is Ty, not OJ. But while the soon-to-be rookie isn't going to get rich by spending ample time running around, he has an above-average knack for maneuvering himself within the pocket.

He's got quick feet, which are a comfortable partner to his speedy reaction time. He knows when to climb the pocket. He knows when to slide back. He knows when to bail and when to stay put. All the while, he keeps his eyes locked firmly downfield.

No matter the arm talent, athleticism, or football IQ, a quarterback is only as good as his legs allow him to be. While Simpson learns the pro game, his ability in the pocket will keep him alive and open up opportunities downfield that many young QBs wouldn't have otherwise.

2. Quick release

Simpson has a quick release and can really fire a dime when throwing straight on between the numbers. He has a unique throwing motion that is hard to ignore. But it doesn't slow him down, and it doesn't take any juice off his straight-line throws.

If we overreacted to throwing motions, Philip Rivers would've had a very short-lived career. No one would argue that he got the ball out slowly or that it came out like a duck.

Simpson's arm is way more valuable delivering line drives than pop-ups. But while the deep ball is an attractive additive to any passer, it can't replace the ability to thread the needle on standard short or medium passes. Simpson does this both on target and more specifically on time.

3. Pre- and post-snap defensive manipulation

My biggest pet peeve in evaluating young quarterbacks is their inability to use their eyes as a weapon, or even just a tool. Not only does Simpson dance through progressions, but he also manipulates defenders with deception of intent.

Young quarterbacks have a tendency to get locked on a target. They see he's about to bounce open, and they're ready to deliver a bullet in perfect rhythm. But professional DBs are watching their eyes too, and far too often this scenario results in an interception or batted ball.

Simpson does not fall for this trap. He looks guys off, and he waits until the last second to lock eyes with his decided target. He knows his eyes matter, and he uses them well.

4. Soft skills and intangibles

All you have to do is listen to one interview, and you'll learn quickly that Ty Simpson doesn't take any nonsense from anyone. He has an edge to him that you need to win. He's clearly competitive, and he's even more clearly confident in himself.

That is far from an outright guarantee that he'll succeed at the next level. But if he's selected by the Jets, he'll have the weight of the New York media leaning heavily on his young shoulders. He will need self-confidence to succeed. He can't be seeing ghosts.

Sorry, Sam.

Ty Simpson's Cons

1. Size and frame

This isn't so much a weakness as it is just not a positive. He isn't Trinidad Chambliss. It's not as if he's barely pushing six feet, and he's not running around with a 180-pound frame. But, he's also not a modern-day Cam Newton.

For someone likely to spend a decent amount of time using his legs to either buy himself more time or create any positive yardage off broken plays, you'd like to see him have as much size to work with as possible. 6-foot-2 and 208 pounds isn't a lot of armor.

This is something Simpson will have to be mindful of throughout his career. He's not pocket-locked, so his body will occasionally be at risk in the open field. It will be imperative that he perfects his slide and knows when to just fall down. He doesn't have the frame to battle linebackers for every inch he can find.

2. Deep ball inconsistency

I wouldn't describe Ty Simpson as an inaccurate quarterback. When he's throwing between the numbers, he's exceptionally accurate. And that's when he has enough velocity to hit guys in stride. But when he's airing the ball out, things change.

He tends to miss guys deep. As I stated before, I'd rather a QB miss guys on deep passes than consistently miss open guys underneath or in the middle of the field. But in today's game, a quarterback can only go so far if he's limited to 40-yard passes and under.

If he doesn't clean this up, he'll have a firm ceiling. QBs that can't stretch the field and take the top off a defense can be solid starters, but they cannot be any more than that. To be a true playmaking quarterback at the next level, you have to be able to hit guys in stride when they break open 50+ yards.

Right now, Simpson has an unfortunate knack for sailing these passes, or not putting enough on them. This may not be a weakness that will hamstring his hopes of achieving starter-level success, but it sure will limit his upside.

3. No elite physical tools

When all else fails, and his pre- or post-snap reads don't manipulate defenders, or none of his receivers break open, there isn't much for Simpson to rely on. He doesn't have the speed, the size, or the quickness to create yards on his own.

Sure, he's fast enough to hit a big run occasionally when the field opens a bit. But when there's no lane to sprint, he isn't juking guys out of their cleats. He's not breaking out spin moves against safeties.

And when his only receiver, even remotely open, is largely blanketed 60 yards downfield, he doesn't have the arm talent to rifle in a bullet to the one spot it had to be. His physical presence does not make up for a lack of execution around him. This might mean he is limited to the weapons at his disposal and the offense drawn up for him.

This goes along with the ceiling I've been talking about. These weaknesses might not crater his floor, but they can lower the roof.

4. Small sample size

Simpson only has one real season of starting. This, of course, might mean absolutely nothing. It's not his fault that he was only granted 15 full games. Before that, he never exceeded six appearances or 25 pass attempts in a season.

So we're not working with a huge sample size. One could argue, though, that his breakout in just one season speaks to his ability. What seems to be a concern right now might turn out to be one of the biggest data pieces pointing to his future success.

But for now, it is not positive that there is only one season of work to go off of. An extra season would be nice to evaluate.

QB Value Score

I've developed a statistic to score young quarterbacks. I took the statistics and Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades I value most and consolidated them into a single number. There are 13 metrics. From most crucial to least, they are as follows (I'll also include Simpson's numbers for each category).

All you have to do is multiply each metric by its corresponding number. Then add them and carry your decimal two places to the left. That provides you with your Quarterback Value (QBV). You can typically expect this number to be between 40 and 70.

• QBV: 59.21

Of all the quarterbacks I evaluated, he has the highest passing grade, 81.4, of anyone outside Trinidad Chambliss. He also has the highest big-time throw percentage, 6%, of any quarterback I evaluated, not named Trinidad.

And for all his struggles as a deep passer, he finished behind only Garrett Nussmeier and Chambliss for the highest passing grade on deep balls.

Ty Simpson Evaluation and Grade

I rely on a combination of metric-driven analysis, results-based statistics, and the old-fashioned eye test to evaluate quarterbacks. After considering all factors, below is my final prospect grade, along with some pro comparisons ranging from the most realistic scenario to the absolute ceiling.

• FINAL GRADE: C+ prospect. He has a high floor/lowish ceiling. Probably never a true star, but has a good chance of eventually earning and then holding a starting job for several years. Worst-case scenario, he'll be a high-level backup.

• NFL Comparisons: Bo Nix, Tu Tagovailoa, Dak Prescott

The most common comparison you'll see is to Mac Jones. There's a lot of crossover there, but I do think he has more to his legs than Mac Jones. He's a gamer, very similar to Bo Nix, with a similar build and play style. He probably has more running ability than Tua Tagovailoa, but their medium-game accuracy, combined with limited deep-ball ability, is extremely similar.

If he hits his peak, I see him being very similar to Dak Prescott during the first half of Dak's career. Someone who can make accurate throws, but isn't going to consistently take the top off the defense, relying mainly on his football IQ and natural pocket instincts.

I went into this evaluation assuming Simpson was a "C" guy with an incredibly low ceiling and pretty moderate floor based on his reputation. But in conclusion, given everything he has accomplished in just one season of starting, and his passing grades surpassing what his reputation says, I think he is more of a "C+" guy with a higher ceiling than I thought.

I think he makes sense for the Jets at the 33rd pick. 16 might be a bit early, but I wouldn't cry about it either. This is a smart, competitive, talented kid who will likely become a starter in the league eventually. How high he goes from there, I don't know.

But a true starting-level talent would be a nice change up for the Jets.