What NY Jets fans should expect from new offensive play-caller Todd Downing

Following the unexpected firing of head coach Robert Saleh, NY Jets interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich has made swift changes, demoting offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and promoting passing game coordinator Todd Downing. So what will the Jets offense look like this week?

Nathaniel Hackett just can't hack it

Nathaniel Hackett remains the offensive coordinator but without play-calling duties. His recent track record has been rough. With over 11 years of experience as a play-caller, Hackett has a lot to draw on, yet his most recent stints have been anything but successful.

In 2022, Hackett took on the role of head coach for the Denver Broncos, only to be dismissed with two games remaining in the season. His offense struggled mightily, ranking 31st in yards, 32nd in points, and 26th in turnovers.

In 2023, the Jets hired Hackett with hopes of securing QB Aaron Rodgers, which they did. However, the offense faltered as Rodgers suffered a season-ending Achilles injury just four snaps into the season.

The Jets ended with a 7-10 record, missing the playoffs for the 13th consecutive year. Despite this, Hackett was given a pass due to Rodgers' early injury.

Even with Aaron Rodgers back at the helm, the Jets' offense remains in the league's bottom quarter. Following the loss to the Minnesota Vikings in London, owner Woody Johnson decided he'd seen enough, leading to the firing of Robert Saleh and the promotion of Jeff Ulbrich to head coach.

Like his predecessor planned, Ulbrich has stripped Hackett of his play-calling duties, entrusting them to Todd Downing. The question remains: will it make a difference?

Todd Downing Experiences

Todd Downing has been in the NFL since 2005, with only three years of play-calling experience. His track record is mixed, with his best season in 2021 with the Tennessee Titans.

That year, the Titans went 12-5, leaning heavily on Derrick Henry's run game and the play-action connection between wide receiver A.J. Brown and quarterback Ryan Tannehill.

In 2022, the Titans had a rough season, finishing 7-10. Context is crucial, though: Brown had been traded to the Philadelphia Eagles, and the team faced numerous injuries, especially along the offensive line and quarterback positions.

The 2021 Titans faced their share of injuries too, with Brown missing four games and Henry missing nine. Yet, they managed to persevere, going 6-2 with Henry on the field and 6-3 without him.

Unsurprisingly with Henry, Downing's Titans leaned heavily on the run game, consistently rushing for over 100 yards per game in both seasons. However, offensive production plummeted in 2022, with the team ranking 30th in total yards per game and 28th in points, a significant drop from their 17th and 15th rankings the previous year.

In 2017, Downing had his first chance to call plays under Jack Del Rio for the Oakland Raiders. The Raiders were riding high from an impressive season, ranking in the top 10 in both points and yards, finishing with a 12-4 record before falling to the Houston Texans in the Wild Card round.

With Downing calling the plays, the offense regressed, ranking 23rd in points and 17th in total yards. However, there were mitigating factors.

The offense's giveaways increased dramatically, dropping from fourth to 28th, with Derek Carr throwing 13 interceptions compared to just six the previous year. The leading rusher was 31-year-old Marshawn Lynch and the top receiver was tight end Jared Cook, who managed only 688 yards.

With limited experience, Downing’s play-calling has seen mediocre results when looking at the statistics. But even these mediocre results are an improvement over Hackett’s recent offenses.

In two of his three years as a play-caller, Downing's offenses ranked 17th in total yards. Meanwhile, Hackett hasn't managed to break past 27th in the last three years.

What should NY Jets fans expect?

Under Todd Downing, the offense should improve, but don’t expect a dramatic transformation. The NY Jets aren't going to suddenly become a top-five offense, but they could realistically aim for a top-15 spot. The last time Downing had a roster with this type of talent, he guided the Titans to a 12-5 record, ranking 17th in yards and 15th in points.

Given the defense's performance this season, the NY Jets don't need a top-five offense. They just need to consistently score 24 or more points per game. The Jets are 2-0 when reaching that mark and 0-3 when they don't.

The defense is currently ranked in the top five for both yards and points allowed, holding opponents to an average of 17 points per game. The offense simply needs a spark — it shouldn't take much to turn things around.

With the Buffalo Bills visiting the Jets on Monday Night Football and the division lead at stake, Todd Downing will have his first chance to call plays for the team. With less than a week to prepare, this game won't be a fair assessment of Downing's abilities. He'll likely be given at least two more games to prove himself as the play-caller.

Facing the Bills, Steelers, and Patriots in their next three games, the Jets must beat the Bills and secure at least one win in the other two matchups to keep their postseason hopes alive.

Even a slight boost in offensive performance could lead to more victories. Let's hope Todd Downing's play calling sparks the necessary turnaround for the Jets offense.

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