Vegas odds prove Jets have no reason to fear Aaron Rodgers matchup

Aaron Rodgers is officially headed to Pittsburgh, and the betting markets have barely blinked.

Rodgers is expected to sign with the Pittsburgh Steelers and attend mandatory minicamp next week, per ESPN’s Adam Schefter. After months of patience and needless deliberation, Rodgers has officially made his decision.

Rodgers' arrival sets the stage for a marquee Week 1 clash with the New York Jets, a double-revenge showdown featuring Rodgers against his former team and Justin Fields against the franchise that cast him aside.

But if you expected Rodgers’ arrival to shift the odds significantly, Vegas says otherwise. ESPN BET nudged the Steelers from 2.5-point favorites (-125) to just 3-point favorites (-105) following the news.

It's proof that, at this stage in his career, Rodgers doesn’t scare anyone, least of all the Jets. At least not according to the Vegas oddsmakers.

Vegas doesn't believe Aaron Rodgers is a threat to the NY Jets

Still, for all the hype surrounding the move, Vegas is clearly skeptical that Rodgers makes a meaningful difference. The betting line barely budged when news of the signing broke. That's a direct reflection of how little oddsmakers believe the 41-year-old changes Pittsburgh’s ceiling.

That shouldn’t come as a surprise. Rodgers hasn’t played a full healthy season since 2021 (he played through notable injuries in 2022 and 2024) and is coming off what is, in many ways, the worst statistical year of his NFL career. Rodgers still put up respectable box score numbers in 2024, but the film tells a different story.

The version of Rodgers the Steelers are getting is no longer the quarterback who once struck fear into every opponent. That became painfully obvious when watching the 2024 Jets offense.

It’s possible the minimal shift was partially due to expectations, as oddsmakers may have already priced in the likelihood that Rodgers would land in Pittsburgh. But if this were prime Rodgers we were talking about, a confirmation would have moved the line significantly, expected or not.

The Jets, meanwhile, are in a very different place. They’ve moved on from the Rodgers drama, turned the page with a new quarterback in Fields, and embraced a fresh identity under Aaron Glenn. After years of dysfunction, the Jets finally seem like a team with direction and without the off-field distractions.

Come Week 1, Rodgers will return to MetLife Stadium for a storyline-heavy showdown against his former team. But while the media hype will be immense, Vegas has made it clear that this isn’t the mismatch it once might’ve been. The Jets have every reason to believe they can win.

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