The NY Jets are going to trade for Aaron Rodgers. It's going to happen. While it's probably still slightly more than a formality at this point, a Rodgers trade will become official at some point this offseason, likely prior to the 2023 NFL Draft.
Why? Because it's the only outcome that makes sense for all parties involved.
FS1's Craig Carton raised eyebrows when he told viewers on Monday that the San Francisco 49ers had emerged as a potential candidate to trade for Rodgers. Carton insisted that if the Jets didn't act quickly, the 49ers were ready to swoop in and complete a trade.
There's one notable problem with this report, however. It makes no sense.
The NY Jets are the only team that's going to trade for Aaron Rodgers
Let's get the obvious out of the way first. Aaron Rodgers has already publicly declared his intentions to play for the Jets. Why would any team attempt to trade for a player who has already insisted he wants to play elsewhere?
Not to mention, Rodgers said just two months ago that he had no intentions of playing for the 49ers. He said that. Publicly. Less than 60 days ago. You can point to Rodgers' Bay Area connections all you want, but his words mean something.
From the 49ers' perspective, they haven't shown interest in trading for Rodgers or acquiring any notable veteran quarterback all offseason. Brock Purdy is their QB1, with Trey Lance and Sam Darnold serving as backups.
Kyle Shanahan has spoken of the importance of an inexpensive quarterback room, not to mention the fact that the 49ers have just $3 million in cap space. There's also the impending Nick Bosa extension on a roster that already has a ton of expensive contracts.
On top of that, the 49ers don't have the draft capital necessary to make a deal work. San Francisco's first pick in this year's draft is at No. 99 overall. They don't possess first, second, or fourth-round picks.
In fact, if you combined all 11 of the 49ers' 2023 draft picks, the equivalent value would be roughly around pick No. 53 overall, per the Jimmy Johnson chart. If the Green Bay Packers aren't pleased with the Jets' offer of pick 42 or 43, how are the 49ers supposed to offer enough to make a deal work?
Financially, it doesn't make sense. Logistically, it doesn't make sense. It just doesn't make sense.
The Jets and Packers have been discussing a Rodgers trade for months with no intervention from any other interested party. Why would the 49ers, in early April of all times, suddenly join the fray? They wouldn't, primarily for the reasons explained above.
Whether Carton is straight-up lying (doubtful) or being fed misinformation, possibly by a Packers source, there's no logical reason the 49ers would have any interest in trading for Rodgers at this stage.
The Jets are going to trade for Aaron Rodgers. It's the only feasible outcome to this drama-filled offseason ordeal.