Breaking down the numbers behind the NY Jets historic comeback win

NY Jets, Garrett Wilson
NY Jets, Garrett Wilson / Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

It's almost impossible to put into words what Sunday's 31-30, improbable, downright ridiculous win over the Cleveland Browns means for the NY Jets.

A Jets team that sleep-walked through Week 1 and looked well on their way to pressing the panic button after a woeful 0-2 start somehow pulled off a miracle. And they did so in a way that almost seemed reminiscent of games this franchise has lost in the past.

Only this time, they didn't lose. The Jets won. They stole a game that they had no business winning because of their opposition's mistakes, errors, and gaffes.

Is it a sign that the times are changing? Is this truly a new Jets team? That much remains unclear. But Sunday's win was improbable as they come, and the numbers behind it make the victory feel all the more special.

Just how improbable was the NY Jets' win over the Browns in Week 2?

The Jets trailed 30-17 with 1:55 remaining in the game. At the time, the Browns had a 99.9 percent chance of winning, according to ESPN's win probability calculator.

That alone makes this one of the most improbable comebacks in NFL history. In fact, you quite literally can't get more improbable than that. Those win probability calculators top out at 99.9 percent.

On top of that, the Jets became the first team in over 20 years (since 2001) to win a game in which they trailed by 13 or more points with under two minutes to play. From Week 9 of 2001 through Week 1 of 2022, teams in that situation had a combined record of 2,229-0.

The Jets broke that streak. That doesn't just happen by coincidence. There was undoubtedly some divine intervention from the football gods at play here. But for the first time in what feels like forever, fortune favored the boys in green and white.

The sequence of events that had to occur for the Jets to win this game is almost unbelievable. Browns star running back Nick Chubb elected to score rather than kneel or go out of bounds with just under two minutes to play. If he sits on the ball, the Jets never regain possession.

Browns kicker Cade York then missed the ensuing extra point, a kick that seemed rather pointless at the time. That was until the Browns blew a coverage assignment a few plays later allowing Corey Davis to streak wide open downfield for a 66-yard touchdown.

Still, with no timeouts remaining, the Jets needed to recover the onside kick — something that happens roughly 10-12 percent of the time. They did just that, capping off a remarkable day from the special-teams unit.

All of that happened, and the Jets still needed 37-year-old Joe Flacco to drive down the field with no timeouts remaining and score the game-winning touchdown. He did. One Greg Zuerlein extra point and an Ashtyn Davis interception later and the Jets somehow emerged victorious.

You can replay that same scenario 1,000 times over again and I'm not sure the Jets win any of them. But on this overcast day in Cleveland, OH, the football gods favored the Jets.

That interception, by the way, came on Davis' lone defensive snap of the game and his first defensive snap of the season. Talk about making the most of your opportunities.

As for Flacco, he managed to make a little history of his own in the process. Flacco became the first Jets quarterback to throw for 300+ yards and four touchdowns in a game since Vinny Testaverde in 2000.

His opponents? The Miami Dolphins in the famous Monday Night Miracle game. You couldn't write a better story if you tried.

The Jets' victory on Sunday felt like something out of a storybook. It felt like it was predetermined by the football gods who have seemingly had an axe to grind against this franchise for far too long.

7 takeaways from the NY Jets' improbable Week 2 victory over the Browns. dark. Next

Or maybe that's just football. And maybe, just maybe, it's a sign that these aren't the Same Old Jets. Take those receipts, Robert Saleh. Take 'em.