NY Jets to start with reservations
- WR Garrett Wilson
- RB Michael Carter
We can pretty safely assume that both of these guys will be heavily relied on in Mike LaFleur's game plan. Wilson had a big game the first time around and is averaging six catches on 6.67 targets for 77 yards per game. If he were to match that total in half-PPR, that's a solid 10.7 points.
My big reservation about this time against the Patriots is that Bill Belichick is famous for eliminating the opposing team's best/favorite weapon.
In the three games before playing the Pats, Wilson averaged 2.67 catches on 4.33 targets for 19.67 yards per game. Hardly on the radar, but this time, he's surging with the averages in the paragraph above.
There is no doubt he will get specialized attention from Belichick's defense, and it will be up to multiple people (Garrett Wilson, Mike LaFleur, Zach Wilson) to see if Wilson can still produce in spite of the elite strategy against him.
Considering this fact and the notion that the Jets would prefer Wilson to throw closer to his season average of 27 attempts per game than the 41 he threw the first time makes me believe Garrett Wilson is due for a regression from his six catches and 115 yards from the first Patriots game.
A benefactor of that second notion should be Michael Carter, who I do believe will receive ample work. He is averaging exactly 13 touches per game in the last three games and scored his first touchdown since Week 5 in last week's win over the Bills.
Naturally, he should continue to produce, but the Patriots have allowed the second-least rushing touchdowns in the NFL.
The touches will be there, but the production is iffy. In the first Patriots game, Carter was able to salvage a 26-yard rushing day with four catches for 35 yards.
This time around, I don't think he'll be around on as many passing downs as he was the first time because of the rising comfort of this guy on the next slide.