Raise your hand if the Week 15 matchup between the Detroit Lions and New York Jets was circled on your B-I-N-G-O card for most noteworthy games of the week in the preseason.
Yet here we are, as two borderline playoff teams battle it out in the Meadowlands in an non-conference showdown that could play a prominent role in potential playoff positioning a month from now.
The Lions come off a beatdown at home of the Minnesota Vikings. Many fans were stunned to see the 10-2 Vikings (now 10-3) fall by double digits, but the odds indicated that the Lions were the rightful betting favorite at the beginning of the week.
Meanwhile, the Jets fell on the road to the Buffalo Bills,
Both teams are currently on the outside looking in for a spot in the playoffs, so who puts themselves in the best position to sneak back in?
Here are the latest odds:
Lions vs. Jets Odds, Spread and Total
Lions vs. Jets Betting Trends
- Detroit is 6-0 ATS in their last six games and 9-3-0 ATS on the season. Since 2021, only the Cincinnati Bengals (24-10-0) and Dallas Cowboys (21-10-0) have a better ATS record than the Lions. Their combined W/L record since 2021 is 44-21-0. The Lions are 9-20-1 SU.
- NY ranks third in the NFL ATS this season with six other teams (8-5-0). However, when they cover, they cover BIG. The Jets trail only the Dallas Cowboys in ATS +/- this year (+5.7), making them the second-most dominant team in the NFL in the amount of points by which they cover.
Lions vs. Jets Prediction and Pick
The total dropped precipitously from its opening number of 48, and while I bet the under 48 Sunday night, I still don't mind taking it at 44.5.
However, rather than chase a significantly lower number, to me, the better value is on the Jets, who sit anywhere on the board between a 1-point favorite, and a 1-point dog depending on which book you're looking to place your wager at.
The Lions have looked terrific over their last several games; covering in six straight, while quarterback Jared Goff has an 8 TD to 0 INT ratio over his past five games; ranking third in the NFL in both passer rating and yards since Week 10.
Unfortunately, even Cinderella's horse-drawn carriage turns into a pumpkin at some point, and Goff's numbers both on the road, as well as outdoors in bad weather are just that. In eight games indoors this season, Goff has an 18:4 TD/INT ratio, averaging 270.5 yards-per-game. Away from ideal conditions, he has just one touchdown in three games, and the YPG drop by a full 60.
This Jets' defense is legit and the toughest test the Lions have faced on the road. New York is top 3 in opponent yards/play, top 5 in points/play, and are a top 4 overall defense both overall and at home in opponent total yards/game.
There's a reason the books are on the under with the Lions' offense humming the way it is. Back Gang Green on the moneyline while the number is still a favorable one.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.