Tier 3: These NY Jets will have more poor weeks than great ones
9. Corey Davis, WR
Just about everyone (including myself) had Corey Davis pegged as a cap casualty who had no chance of being on the team by the time Aaron Rodgers got there. Whether getting outright cut or being part of the trade, we all thought he was a goner — but here he is.
Davis' Jets career has been a perfect example of what I mean about consistency; he gets zero points one week and 30 the next instead of the constant 15.
He scored all four of his 2021 touchdowns in three games, scoring two (with 97 yards) against Carolina in the opener and a crazy touchdown play (with 111 yards) against his former team, the Tennessee Titans, in Week 4.
For the other seven games he played that year, he only had one game with more than 50 yards and a different game where he had that fourth touchdown.
This past season, he was worse with this concept, as he played more games but had fewer touchdowns. Davis had 83 yards with a touchdown in Week 2 and 74 yards with a touchdown in Week 4. In the 11 other games played, he had zero touchdowns and only two games with more than 55 yards.
So maybe start Davis in Week 4 this year to make sure you benefit from one of his few touchdowns? With Allen Lazard in the mix, Garrett Wilson's ascension, and Rodgers throwing the football, it's easy to imagine life being much easier for Davis this year.
It's possible that he is the 'WR3' so that reduced attention could open up things for the guy who had 984 yards and five touchdowns in a season before becoming a Jet.
He's guaranteed to disappoint more often than not, but there is reason to believe there will be more than just two great games from him this season.
And if you're thinking he will keep his Week 4 touchdown streak alive, the Jets are playing the Kansas City Chiefs, so it will most likely be a shootout. I'm with you on that one.
8. Michael Carter (or whoever you expect to be RB2)
This is the first of two slots on this list where it's more designated to a position than a player, since again, it's way too early to know exactly how the roster will shake up between now and Week 1. As we all know, Breece Hall is recovering from his 2022 ACL tear, but it seems as though he may be a full go for Week 1 this year.
Still, I'd imagine they would ease him back in there by having him split time with another back. Last year, it was Michael Carter, and he is the most experienced of this very young group, so he's my early pick to start Week 1 as RB2 on the depth chart.
If we get to September and it's Zonovan Knight or Israel Abanikanda instead, please put them in this spot on the list instead. Whoever it is will have plenty of opportunities for carries and catches with Aaron Rodgers under center.
Rodgers' running backs last year amassed 116 targets last year so it's safe to assume the Jets' backfield will be very active in the passing games as well.
All four running backs mentioned in this section are more than capable of holding their own in the passing game, so as long as they are on the field, they will be used, and in a PPR league, they could be a sneaky-good flex until they trust Hall full time.
It's also possible they never give Hall that type of workload again since he already has so much mileage on him. He was the most used running back in college football for multiple years before coming to the league and seemed to break down as soon as the Jets got comfortable resuming that workload.
If they plan to have him for years to come, they might permanently keep him in a timeshare, which would mean glorious things for whoever wins this RB2 spot.
7. NY Jets defense/special teams
This might seem too low for a unit that was universally praised and considered a top defense in the NFL, but in terms of fantasy, the Jets' defense had very little value down the stretch last year.
Holding all QBs to under 300 passing yards is an incredible feat, and holding all teams to 30 points or less is arguably even more impressive, but the key stats in fantasy are takeaways and defensive touchdowns.
The Jets only had two takeaways in the last six games of the fantasy football season and only had one defensive touchdown all season. They certainly get after the quarterback (Will McDonald should help make this even better), so in the games where they rack up the sacks, they will do well, but it just doesn't look like they are a turnover or touchdown juggernaut.
Combine that with the fact that they have one of the hardest schedules in the league, and it compounds this issue. They were able to beat up Skylar Thompson, Brett Rypien, and Mitchell Trubisky, but this year, they step up to face the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert.
With a full season of tape for opposing teams to dissect the Jets' defense and a sizable uptick in the quality of opponents expected to face, it's actually very reasonable to expect a regression from the defense this year.
Still, they are a stacked unit in all the right places, so if they stay as healthy as they did last year, they are guaranteed to give you some good fantasy weeks.