Aaron Rodgers knows that this Sunday's game against the Miami Dolphins might very well be the final game of his NY Jets career. The Jets have a decision to make on Rodgers' future in the coming weeks and months, and the overwhelming expectation is that the team will opt to move on.
Rodgers' inconsistencies combined with his injury history and cap situation make it likely that the Jets will cut ties with the future Hall of Famer. While nothing is confirmed, reports indicate the Jets are ready for a change.
uSTADIUM is reporting that "barring an unforeseen change" the Jets are expected to move on from both Rodgers and Davante Adams this offseason. The relationship between Rodgers and owner Woody Johnson is said to be "irreparable."
This isn't the first report we've heard about a supposed rift between Rodgers and Johnson. Both sides seem ready to move forward and close this unfortunate chapter.
Aaron Rodgers likely playing his final NY Jets game on Sunday
Even aside from Rodgers' fractured relationship with Johnson, moving on from the four-time MVP has always made the most financial sense. That's especially true given that the Jets are set to hire a new regime in the near future.
If the Jets decide to keep Rodgers in 2025, his cap hit will be a manageable $23.5 million. However, the financial implications for the team stretch far beyond just next season.
Rodgers is set to earn a $35 million option bonus if he remains on the Jets' roster by Week 1 of 2025, along with a $2.5 million base salary. This bonus is prorated across the remaining years of his contract, which includes void years extending through 2029.
This means the Jets would incur a dead cap charge of $63 million in 2026 if they retained Rodgers for another year. That's significantly higher than the $49 million dead cap charge they can take up front in 2025.
The Jets could opt to absorb Rodgers' full $63 million cap hit in 2026 or spread it over two years by designating him as a post-June 1 cut. In that scenario, the cap charges would be $21 million in 2026 and $42 million in 2027.
Essentially, keeping Rodgers for another year would decimate the Jets' cap situation in 2026 and likely 2027. It's hard to imagine any new regime would want to handicap their future financial situation for one more year of a soon-to-be 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers.
The unfortunate reality is that if Rodgers leaves, so too will Adams. The six-time Pro Bowler remains one of the better wide receivers in the NFL and could help the Jets in 2025, but with no guaranteed money remaining on his deal, he controls his destiny.
Adams is set to carry a cap hit of over $35 million into 2025. There's approximately a zero percent chance the Jets keep Adams on that contract — both sides are well aware of that. It's why Adams and the Jets agreed to leave the final two years of his contract untouched following the trade.
If Adams doesn't want to play for the Jets in 2025, he'll simply refuse a contract restructure and force the team to release him. And if Rodgers is gone, Adams will join him.
Sunday’s game against the Dolphins will wrap up what’s been one of the most disappointing chapters in Jets history. The Rodgers-Adams duo, once hyped as the beginning of something special, is coming to a quiet and unceremonious conclusion.