NFL analyst delivers sobering reality check for Jets quarterback dreams

The New York Jets are almost certain to target a quarterback in the upcoming 2026 NFL Draft, but that's only if they have the opportunity to do so. One NFL analyst recently delivered a sobering reality check to Jets fans who are hopeful of landing their franchise QB in this year's draft.

ESPN's Kirk Herbstreit spoke to Justin Fried of The Jet Press at a recent Raising Cane's event in Nashville on Tuesday. Herbstreit was in attendance, serving chicken fingers as he worked an honorary shift, before he spoke to reporters about a variety of topics.

Herbstreit shared his candid thoughts on the Jets’ quarterback situation and the 2026 draft class, and the takeaway wasn’t exactly what fans hoping for a franchise savior probably wanted to hear.

Asked about two of the draft’s biggest wildcards — Oregon’s Dante Moore and Alabama’s Ty Simpson — he pushed back on the idea that either should turn pro this year.

Both quarterbacks are young, both remain unfinished products, and Herbstreit believes both would benefit from another full season of high-level reps. That's not ideal news for a Jets team hoping to see as many quarterbacks as possible enter the draft.

Here's what he had to say about Moore.

"I think [Moore's] a talented player, but I think he needs a lot more seasoning. The NFL is so desperate for the next guy that I think there’s a lot of pressure put on an Arch Manning or a Dante Moore. I feel like they’re getting an unfinished product. Dante Moore, to me, should go back to Oregon. I think he should go back to Oregon and continue to get reps, continue to make mistakes, continue to have success, and then come out the next year."

Kirk Herbstreit

Kirk Herbsreit doesn't believe the Jets will have an opportunity to draft Dante Moore or Ty Simpson

Moore’s talent is obvious. He’s played brilliantly in his first season as a starter at Oregon, completing 72.5 percent of his passes for 2,733 yards with a 24–6 touchdown-to-interception ratio while leading the Ducks to the College Football Playoff.

But he doesn't turn 21 years old until after draft night, his UCLA tape from 2023 left a lot to be desired, and this is his first year starting at a true national powerhouse. Around the league, many already expect him to return to school, and Herbstreit clearly agrees.

Simpson, meanwhile, has seen his draft stock slide in recent weeks. A month ago, he was genuinely in the conversation to be the No. 1 pick before a rough stretch, including a difficult SEC Championship loss.

Still, he’s thrown 26 touchdowns to just five interceptions and helped lead Alabama into the College Football Playoff. Herbstreit cautioned that another year in Tuscaloosa might serve Simpson best, much like Moore.

"I think Ty Simpson needs to come back for another year at Alabama… and then next year at this time, what a great player he could potentially be."

Kirk Herbstreit

This all could create a problem for the Jets. Their ideal scenario is a deep quarterback class, not one dominated by a single top prospect. Right now, Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza is the only quarterback who feels like a true lock to declare, and he’s widely seen as the early favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick.

If that pick belongs to the Las Vegas Raiders — and it very easily could if they lose to the New York Giants in a couple of weeks — the Jets may not even get a chance to draft him.

"This is a tricky year if you’re a Jets fan looking for a quarterback. Other than [Fernando] Mendoza, I just don’t know who a safe bet is with that first pick."

Kirk Herbstreit

The Jets should want Moore and Simpson to declare because they need multiple first-round talents on the board. Otherwise, they’re left hoping they can trade up for Mendoza or reach for a prospect like USC's Jayden Maiava instead.

And with Justin Fields likely to be released, Tyrod Taylor set to hit free agency, and Brady Cook unlikely to factor into 2026 plans, the Jets don’t exactly have an internal solution waiting in the building.

Their veteran alternatives aren’t especially appealing either. Kyler Murray is the only true notable name expected to be on the market, but such a move comes with its own share of complications. Beyond Murray, the bridge market looks bleak, as names like Marcus Mariota and Jimmy Garoppolo aren’t moving the needle.

As Herbstreit pointed out, the Jets are in a tricky situation. They need Moore or Simpson — or ideally both — to enter the draft. And as of now, one of the most respected voices in football isn’t convinced that will happen.

Unfortunately, Jets fans may need to prepare for the possibility that their team won’t be able to land a top quarterback prospect in this year’s draft. It’s a very real scenario.