Jets fans are watching Nick Folk do what Aaron Rodgers couldn’t

Nick Folk is succeeding where Aaron Rodgers failed. 

Just one year ago, the New York Jets were counting on the then-41-year-old quarterback to ascend the positional hierarchy, ideally leading them back to AFC East relevancy.

But after a 5-12 campaign that left them looking up the standings at two of their division rivals, the organization has instead spent the 2025 season watching Rodgers play lackluster football for the Pittsburgh Steelers while they employ a different 41-year-old who has proven himself the most successful player at his position. 

Granted, kickers are nowhere near as important as quarterbacks. But the Jets, much to the chagrin of their downtrodden fanbase, are 2-9. Let’s throw them a bone and at least bask in all the glory that can come with booting a ball through the uprights during another lost year. 

The math that puts Nick Folk atop the kicker pecking order

Bear with us. This is about to get mathy. 

Through 12 weeks of the 2025 NFL season, kickers have recorded 413 field-goal attempts, ranging from a quartet of 19-yard chip shots to Cam Little's record-setting 68-yard blast for the Jacksonville Jaguars. By breaking those down into individual distances and analyzing the success rate within each bucket via a best-fit regression, we can establish a formula that gives the expected points for a league-average kicker at every distance. 

Essentially, this formula says a 30-yard field-goal attempt is expected to yield, on average, 2.853 points, whereas a 60-yard attempt sits at 1.956 points.

Missing the former should be more penalizing (-2.853 expected points) than coming up short on the latter (-1.956 expected points). Conversely, making the former adds less value (+0.147 expected points) than drilling the much-longer try (+1.044 expected points). 

The same methodology applies to extra-point attempts. 

Kickers (and a lone unsuccessful attempt from New York Giants punter Jamie Gillan) have converted 787 of 826 tries (95.28%). Therefore, missing an extra point costs 0.953 expected points; making one only adds 0.047 expected points. After all, kickers are supposed to turn six — and please note how reticent I am to finish this sentence as the parent of an elementary schooler — into seven.

We’ll call the summation of these expected points gained and lost Kick Value Added (KVA), and it’s a metric that paints Nick Folk in the best possible light. 

An objective look at the kickers who have added the most value in 2025

At this point, you might’ve guessed that a certain member of the New York Jets sits atop the pile. But the full top 10 in KVA among qualified kickers passes the sniff test in a way that drives home how valuable he’s been — a rare bright spot during a gangrenous go-round for Gang Green. 

Put simply? Folk has given the Jets just a whisker shy of 10 more points than a league-average kicker would have with the same attempts from the same distances.

Granted, Eddy Pineiro would surpass Folk if it weren't for those pesky extra-point attempts, but missing four in just 22 tries is inexcusable and knocks him down a spot. Folk's across-the-board perfection reigns supreme, especially because he hasn't just been trotting onto the field for gimmies.

The veteran has connected from as far back as 58 yards and is a blemish-free 5-of-5 from 50-plus. Six more makes have come between 40 and 49 yards.

So there you have it, Jets fans. You can proudly lay claim to, thus far, the most successful kicker in the NFL. Next time you’re feeling morose after the offense fails to find paydirt, at least take solace when No. 6 trots out to continue making history during his age-41 season. 

Which, lest you've forgotten, Rodgers couldn't do.