Jets fans shouldn't be fooled by Breece Hall's rushing resurgence

Though the New York Jets have publicly said the opposite, running back Breece Hall continues to be at the center of trade rumors. After initially silencing critics with his Week 1 performance, Hall's performance took a dramatic downturn in Weeks 2 and 3.

That dip in performance led to fans once again embracing the idea of trading the once-budding star, who, as it stands now, is set to become a free agent at season's end. But Hall would rebound with two vintage performances, rushing for 81 yards on 14 carries against the Miami Dolphins and following that up with a 14-carry, 113-yard performance against the Dallas Cowboys.

Averaging 5.8 and then 8.1 yards per carry in his last two contests, respectively, it's easy to get back on the Hall hype train. The Jets probably won't turn around their 0-5 start in 2025, but maybe there's reason to believe that giving Hall a second contract, a rarity for running backs, is actually a good idea. Not so fast, though, the numbers come with quite a few caveats.

There's a lot more than meets the eye behind Jets running back Breece Hall's recent dominance

First, let's square the numbers. Through five weeks, Hall has 66 carries for 351yards and no touchdowns. That is good for 5.3 yards per attempt, his highest total since his rookie season.

So far this season, Hall ranks seventh in the league in rushing despite the second-lowest number of carries among backs in the top 10 in rushing yards. His 5.3 yards per carry rank fourth.

That's the good, and on the surface, that seems to be the type of performance Jets fans have been expecting out of Hall since his magical seven-game run prior to tearing his ACL in his rookie season. That season featured a lot of explosive runs from the Iowa State product, and that's where things begin to break down here.

Hall's longest run of the season is just 23 yards. Only one other back among the top 10 in rushing has a long of fewer than 30 yards. That would be St. Louis Rams star Kyren Williams with a long of exactly 20.

Here's the strange thing. Hall leads the league (minimum 50 carries) in breakaway yards percentage at 57% thanks to 200 of his 351 yards coming on 15+ yard rushes, yet as stated above, his longest rush of the season is just 23 yards.

That's a continuation of last year's trend, where Hall seemed to lack the extra gear to get away from the defense, often getting caught from behind.

Moreover, Hall hasn't been nearly as elusive as he's been in the past. Per PFF, his elusiveness rating is just 50.6, which is the lowest mark of his career, and ranks 18th among the 29 backs to record at least 50 carries. His 10 missed tackles forced ranks 20th.

Per NFL Next Gen Stats, Hall's 0.71 rushing yards over expected per attempt ranks 16th, meaning he's gained less than a yard per carry above what his blocking has provided for him. That's not a terrible mark, but it's not as explosive as one would hope Hall would be.

Here's the final puzzle piece. Hall has faced some of the most porous run defenses in the league. The Dolphins have given up the most rushing yards in the league by a large margin.

Their 871 yards surrendered on the ground are the most in the NFL. Not far behind them are the Buffalo Bills, who come in fourth with 728 allowed. The Cowboys rank 10th with 637 yards given up.

PFF run defense grades for these teams line up with the raw yardage totals. Dallas owns the worst grade in the league at 47.1. Miami is third-worst at a mark of 51.3. Buffalo comes in sixth from the bottom at 56.0. Not exactly a murderer's row of defenses he's been going up against.

All told, Breece Hall's standing in the league is somewhere above average but far from elite. That's nothing to sneeze at, but he's also not the type of player at his position whose performance demands an extension, especially given the Jets' situation.

Braelon Allen's injury makes moving on from Hall by the trade deadline a less appetizing proposition, but it ultimately doesn't change the calculus much.

Hall's a luxury piece on a good team, and that's something the Jets are a long way off from being. Whatever draft capital they can obtain for him in a trade is worth more than what he can give them over the next 12 games, which, either way, will likely be his last in green and white.