Dolphins just made the exact mistake Jets made with Arian Smith

The Miami Dolphins had a weird 2026 NFL Draft. There were some selections to like, a few that made fans raise their eyebrows, and then there was one pick that should feel very familiar to New York Jets fans.

With the No. 75 overall pick, Miami selected Texas Tech wide receiver Caleb Douglas, a player who many evaluators viewed as a late-round flier or undrafted free agent candidate. Yes, this was the Arian Smith pick of this year's draft.

And Jets fans probably know that's not a compliment.

The Jets made a similar mistake in the 2025 draft when they selected Smith in the fourth round at No. 110 overall despite him ranking No. 274 on the overall draft consensus board. The Jets were betting on Smith's speed being able to translate to the NFL level — and betting against the consensus opinion.

Both gambles proved to be mistakes.

The Dolphins may have drafted their own Arian Smith in Caleb Douglas

Smith finished his rookie season with just seven catches for 52 yards despite playing in arguably the weakest wide receiver room in the NFL. Even on a roster desperate for pass-catching help, he wasn't able to carve out any sort of consistent role.

Meanwhile, the Dolphins used a premium third-round pick on a similarly polarizing receiver who was ranked 229th on the consensus board. The Athletic's Dane Brugler gave him a seventh-round grade. He was seen as an undrafted-caliber prospect on Pro Football Network's big board.

To make matters worse, reports suggest Miami may have panicked and drafted for need instead of value. Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reported on Sunday that the Dolphins were targeting Notre Dame wideout Malachi Fields before the Giants traded ahead of them at No. 74.

Instead of pivoting to better value elsewhere, Miami appeared to panic and force the position. Douglas was apparently the next highest-graded wide receiver on their board. That's how teams can lose drafts.

The appeal with Douglas is obvious. He stands at 6-foot-3, 206 pounds, and ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the NFL Combine. Those are the kinds of traits that can convince teams they are smarter than the consensus.

Douglas was also a productive player at Texas Tech, leading the Red Raiders in receiving in 2025 and notching 800+ yards in each of the last two seasons. But those numbers don't tell the full story.

He also struggled with drops, posting seven last season with an 11.5 percent drop rate. His contested-catch numbers were also poor — 31% in 2024 and 35% in 2025 — despite having the frame and athleticism to win those situations.

Jets fans know this story because they just lived it. A receiver with tools gets drafted well ahead of expectation, struggles to adapt to the NFL level, and quickly becomes a cautionary tale about chasing traits over good football players.

Is it possible that Douglas proves everyone wrong? Of course. But 80-90% of the time when NFL teams stray this far from the consensus, they are the ones who end up looking foolish

The Jets already learned that lesson the hard way with Arian Smith. The Dolphins may be about to find out as well.

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