NY Jets: Game breakdown and prediction for Week 12 against the Dolphins

NY Jets Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
NY Jets Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports /

The NY Jets will look to avenge their early-season loss against the Miami Dolphins.

Believe it or not, the NY Jets are on a bit of a hot streak. Yes, an 0-10 football team can be on a hot streak before you ask.

There’s no question where this team stands in the grand scheme of things. They’re winless with a very good chance of landing the number one pick in the draft next year.

But there’s something to be said about how this team has played in its last four games that makes you believe there might be a couple of wins in this team after all. And things this week could be lining up for an upset victory over the Dolphins.

As for what the Jets have been up to lately, they’ve now covered three out of four games as underdogs since they got blown out 24-0 by the Dolphins in their first meeting.

They hung tight with the Bills and Patriots and last week they were able to almost put together a comeback against a hot offense in the Chargers. They were dead in the water in that game, but then kicked it into high gear in the second half and wound up losing by six points.

I certainly didn’t give them enough credit last week despite a history of success on the road against the Bolts.

They started off their season 0-5 against the spread as underdogs and have now brought that to 3-6 after four weeks. Dare I say the Jets actually seem respectable nowadays despite still being winless.

28 points in just 23 minutes of possession last week seems almost efficient, some would say.

Now we come to Week 12. The season is over, but the Jets can still play spoiler for their hated foe Miami Dolphins.

The Dolphins are coming into this game having just lost their five-game winning streak to the Broncos last week and their golden boy Tua Tagovailoa had to be benched because he was so ineffective in that game.

Before I go to my prediction for this week, here’s the deal with Tua.

There’s no question in my mind he was the number one prospect in this year’s draft after all he accomplished at Alabama. He’s truly one of the most gifted passers of the football and most accurate passers to ever come out of college.

But something has changed for me since this season got underway. I don’t know exactly what it is and maybe I’m just jumping the gun on him too early.

But whether it’s his long injury history, him being a lefty in a predominantly righty-dominant position like quarterback, or his best Baker Mayfield impression in all the commercials he’s put out since coming into the league with no snaps taken, something just seems off.

I get there were no OTAs and very limited preseason, but in seeing how they gameplan with him quarterbacking the past few games, they don’t seem too apt to put the ball in his hands and let him work his magic.

The Dolphins are a running team that has found their groove in that department and Tua has just been a facilitator for the most part in his handful of starts.

22 attempts against the Rams in his debut. 28 against the Cardinals. 25 against the Chargers. 20 last week against the Broncos.

I look at what the Chargers and Bengals are doing with their rookie quarterbacks letting them loose despite no OTAs and limited preseason and can’t help but wonder what the deal is with Tua and this Dolphins team not letting him off the leash.

Maybe I’m way off. Maybe I’m not taking too much into consideration that they want to ease Tua into the role. But as it sits right now, things don’t seem to be 100 percent clicking with Tua like they are in Cincy or LA with Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert.

I’m interested to see how things develop into next season in that regard because I’d have to argue Herbert and Burrow seem like the much better pros at the moment.

That leads me to my prediction for this game. Despite my feelings on Tua, Miami is still a much better team than the Jets and they should by all accounts win this game.

When we look back on these two teams’ matchups, Miami has won 5-of-6, 10-of-16, and 15-of-24 against the Jets overall as well as 8-of-12 on the road at the Jets.

In each of the last six road games for the Dolphins at the Jets, the Fins have won one, lost one. They’re since coming off a loss at the Jets, so if history repeats itself, they should be winning this game.

But I’m feeling dangerous this week as Baker Mayfield would say, so something to me just feels like the Jets are going to pull something off.

Could the NY Jets pull off the upset in Week 12?

Think back to the last time they played the Dolphins. Joe Flacco (who started that game) was 6-0 against Miami and I picked the Jets to lose but cover 9.5 points to which they got blanked.

Now I feel things are going to be different, especially since the Jets are on a bit of a streak of covering spreads. Now they’ll have Sam Darnold back and a full receiving corps for him to utilize.

And although Darnold is 1-3 vs. Miami, this was about the time last year where the Jets really got into a groove and started upsetting teams.

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Add in the fact that Miami just lost their hot streak, Tua is dealing with a thumb injury and is doubtful to play, and now you have a Miami team venturing into another chilly climate for the second-straight week and you have all the makings for a Jets upset in this game.

Here’s what’s interesting. Miami has covered seven points in 17-of-24 wins over the Jets on the road. That’s 71 percent. So, if the Dolphins win this game, covering seven points is well within the cards for them to accomplish.

However, when we expand it to all wins over the Jets, Miami has covered seven points in 31-of-54 wins. That’s only 57 percent. Compared to the rest of the field this week, I have the Dolphins as the 11th most likely favorite of 16 to cover their spreads this week.

So, why not just give the Jets the win in this game?

I’m going to take a flyer this week and say the Jets pull off the upset here and win a shootout. I’m 9-1 this year picking Jet games outright; 5-5 picking Jet spreads. Let’s go out on a limb here.

The Dolphins are still flying dangerously close to the sun and now they’re going to be down Salvon Ahmed in the run game who racked up 166 yards in 40 carries over three games for them.

Sam Darnold’s propensity to turn the ball over the Dolphins being top five in takeaways worries me, but something just tells me with the Bengals next week, the Dolphins don’t feel like a team that will go to 8-4 by Week 14.

I’ll take the Jets 28-24 in this game. Give me the over 44.5 since I think this game will be back-and-forth and because the Jets have been pretty good on offense of late.

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At the very least, I feel really good that the Jets will make the game close and cover seven points even in a losing effort.