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NY Jets Monday Mailbag: Playoff odds, Ashtyn Davis expectations, more

NY Jets (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
NY Jets (Photo by Abbie Parr/Getty Images)
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The NY Jets Monday Mailbag series makes its long-awaited return

Welcome to the return of the NY Jets Monday Mailbag! It’s been over a year since we ran this weekly article series, but I figured now was as good a time as any to officially bring it back.

I personally had a lot of fun doing these in the past getting to interact with all of you — it truly became one of the highlights of my week. Here’s to hoping that this revival is a more permanent one than the last.

Now, given that news is slow at the moment, I’m not too sure how frequently we’ll be running these. I suppose it will depend on the success and feedback of this one. But at the very least, bi-weekly or monthly seems to be the minimum we will shoot for.

In this edition, we will be discussing a variety of topics ranging from possible playoff odds to rookie expectations to even reliving some not-so-fond memories of old.

As always, if you’d like to submit a question for the mailbag make sure to follow us on Twitter (@TheJetPress) and be on the lookout for a tweet each Saturday or Sunday. We will also extend this to our followers on Facebook so be sure to check there as well.

Without further ado, let’s jump into this week’s questions!

NY Jets Twitter Questions

“[Marcus] Maye and [Jamal Adams] have proven to be a dominant combo, where does [Ashtyn] Davis fit in this year?” – via @jet_jersey on Twitter

The Jets drafted Ashtyn Davis in the third round this year with the expectation that he will be a starter in the near future, but that won’t come until 2021 at the earliest. This year, expect him to play somewhat of a hybrid role.

Davis will likely be relied on as a core special-teamer where he excelled at Cal. That could be both on kick/punt returns and on kick/punt coverage. He’ll become a favorite of Brant Boyer by the season’s end.

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Defensively, expect Davis to be the team’s third safety and see his fair share of defensive snaps. Gregg Williams loves to use three-safety packages but he didn’t have that luxury last season.

I’d expect some more big nickel looks with Davis and Maye up high and Adams down in the box. Ultimately, I’d say Davis could see anywhere from 25-35 percent of defensive snaps when all is set and done.

“Realistic ratio of carries? Bell/Gore. Consider Gase goes with the hot hand.” – via @gtucker1115 on Twitter

I think the Frank Gore signing as gotten a little overhyped by some. Sure, the Jets will use Gore to spell Le’Veon Bell, but I wouldn’t expect him to eat away at too many carries.

Consider the fact that Bell, despite being woefully misused, still received over 70 percent of the team’s carries by a running back last year — and that’s even with him missing a game. In today’s NFL, running backs who carry the ball that much are few and far between.

Yes, Adam Gase has a prior connection with Gore from their time together in Miami so he’ll have the coaching staff’s support. But by all accounts, the coaches seemed to love Bilal Powell last season.

Yet, he saw just 59 carries with over 30 percent of those carries coming in the one game without Bell. Gore will see some work, but I’d expect fourth-round rookie La’Mical Perine to surpass him on the depth chart midway through the season.

If the Jets are going to cut into Bell’s workload, it’s going to be for Perine, not Bell.

Realistic ratio, I think Bell still ends up with 65-70 percent of carries with Gore seeing maybe 15 percent, barring injury.

“With the expected drop off of New England wins, do you think there is if any chance the Jets can win the division or make the playoffs within the next two years?” – via @JoshKerr829 on Twitter

Sure they can. In fact, if the Jets don’t make the playoffs by 2021 then something has clearly gone wrong and there will no doubt be consequences.

As for 2020, the AFC East is certainly wide open and if a few things go their way, the Jets have every chance to win the division or secure a playoff spot with the extra wild card. But is it likely?

That much remains to be seen.

The Jets realistically have the third-best roster in the division. The Buffalo Bills should have no trouble topping the rest of the AFC East teams, but the play of Josh Allen will remain their biggest uncertainty.

More from Jets News

And of course, you could never count out the Patriots — their defense alone should be able to keep them hovering around .500 barring horrendous quarterback play.

The Miami Dolphins are probably a year or two away from being competitive, but the same could be said for the Jets. If the offensive line could mesh and the receivers are at least competent, the Jets could be a playoff team in 2020.

But in all likelihood, we’re looking at a 2021 ETA for when the Jets are truly playoff contenders — assuming the Joe Douglas rebuild goes according to plan.

Believe me, I’m just as tired of the “next year is our year” philosophy as you are. But it’s unfortunately the scenario we’re faced with.

“Season predictions game by game” – via @Charlie69406218 on Twitter

We’ll definitely have an article come out detailing this in full length sometime in the future, so I won’t go completely into this now. Instead, I’ll give a quick record prediction with a bonus upset victory.

6-10 final record. Jets finish third in the AFC East with a divisional record of 2-4. One of those division wins comes against the New England Patriots at home on Monday Night Football.

Give me that sweet, sweet revenge.

“Do you believe Brian Winters will be cut before June 1st?” – via @kurtludden19 on Twitter

This is the first of a few questions from Kurtis, appreciate the support my man!

Brian Winters’ contract actually has the same amount of dead cap whether he’s traded/released before or after June 1st — $0. The Jets could cut ties with Winters from now until the start of the season and do so with absolutely no penalty at all.

As of now, I don’t see them cutting him unless they change their stance on any of the top remaining free agents. It doesn’t seem as though they’re in any hurry to sign players like Logan Ryan or Larry Warford meaning that Winters might be safe.

If that changes and the Jets need to create cap space, Winters will be the first to go. But for now, his job is probably safe.

“Who will the Jets most likely to sign Larry Warford, Logan Ryan or Jadeveon Clowney?”- via @kurtludden19 on Twitter

This sort of ties into the last question and I’ll reiterate by saying — none of them.

Clowney is pretty much a guaranteed ‘no’ at this point. Warford would be a worthwhile addition, but it doesn’t seem as though there’s much interest from the Jets. And Ryan, his $10 million asking price appears too steep for Joe Douglas’ liking.

If any of the three were to sign with the Jets, Ryan seems the likeliest. But that would require his contract demands to come down from where they’re currently at.

Who knows though, Douglas has worked his magic with some incredibly cheap defensive contracts this offseason (see Brian Poole, Jordan Jenkins, etc.).

Maybe Ryan joins that list.

“Do you believe the jets will sign anyone else to a contract?” – via @kurtludden19 on Twitter

More from The Jet Press

Once again, this kind of ties into the last question a bit. As it stands, the Jets actually have a full 90-man roster right now if you include their nine draft picks that have yet to sign.

If the Jets were to make any moves, they’d need to cut someone. That’s perfectly fine and I highly doubt the roster that we see now is the one the Jets roll into the preseason with.

Other than the typical low-profile roster moves that could be made, I could see the Jets trying to bring in a more experienced kicker to compete in camp. Maybe a veteran wide receiver could join the fold as well — keep an eye on a possible Demaryius Thomas reunion.

That said, I wouldn’t expect any major additions from here on out. What you see is probably, more or less, what you’re going to get.

“How do you guys feel about the disrespect that Darnold getting on rank QB and best young QB’s?” – via @kurtludden19 on Twitter

I actually think that the general consensus on Sam Darnold is a fair one. He’s a young quarterback going into his third season who has shown minor improvements each year despite playing with an abysmal supporting cast.

The jury is still out on if he will overcome his organization’s deficiencies or if that organization will provide him with actual help. Apart from your average Twitter troll, I think most people — Jets fans or not — realize the potential Darnold has.

But potential doesn’t always equate to NFL success — and sometimes that’s not exactly a fault of the player himself.

Will the Jets give him adequate help? Will he be able to overcome his team’s many issues? Both of those questions will hopefully be answered this season.

NY Jets Facebook Questions

“With the Jets losing [Bill Belichick] and them being the team to injure Drew Bledsoe to start the [Tom] Brady era, are we partially to blame for the Patriots’ dominance?” – via Joe Bachman on Facebook

Wow that’s quite the downer of a question, but sure let’s roll with it.

In many ways, yes, you could look at Bill Belichick leaving the Jets and the Mo Lewis hit on Drew Bledsoe as the reasons for the start of the Patriots’ dynasty. And looking at it from that perspective, it’s hard to ignore the Jets’ involvement.

I think if anything, that deep-rooted connection between the two franchises only enhances the rivalry between the two. Sure, the Bills and Dolphins both have reasons to hate the Patriots, but neither will come close to the level of disdain many Jets fans feel for New England.

And the events you mentioned are the primary reasons for that.

So from an optimistic standpoint, those two things are the impetus for one of the greatest rivalries in football.

And at the end of the day, what are sports without a good rivalry?

“Will I see a Jets Super Bowl before I die????” – via Gary Cornibert Jr. on Facebook

I love the disparity between Twitter and Facebook questions. Well, Gary, there’s a lot of factors at play here that I can’t exactly address.

Your age, genetics, health, and many other things will determine the answer to your question. But considering it’s been over 50 years since the Jets won their first and only Super Bowl, let’s just say they’re long overdue.

Stay tuned, my friend.

Next. NY Jets: 3 players who are likely gone after the 2020 season

Alright, that’s it for this week’s questions. Thank you all for your wonderful support and I look forward to the next edition of our Monday Mailbag.

Good to be back!

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