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NY Jets: Analytics predict which OT the team can land on draft day

AMES, IA - SEPTEMBER 14: Place kicker Keith Duncan #3 of the Iowa Hawkeyes celebrates with teammate offensive lineman Tristan Wirfs #74 of the Iowa Hawkeyes after kicking a field goal in the first half of play at Jack Trice Stadium on September 14, 2019 in Ames, Iowa. (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images)
AMES, IA - SEPTEMBER 14: Place kicker Keith Duncan #3 of the Iowa Hawkeyes celebrates with teammate offensive lineman Tristan Wirfs #74 of the Iowa Hawkeyes after kicking a field goal in the first half of play at Jack Trice Stadium on September 14, 2019 in Ames, Iowa. (Photo by David Purdy/Getty Images)
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Which offensive tackle could the NY Jets land in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft? Here is what the analytics have to say.

The NY Jets haven’t selected an offensive lineman in the first round since 2006. Going even deeper, the team has only selected two offensive linemen in the first round since 1989.

Long story short, Gang Green is long overdue for a complete overhaul of the trenches.

In this year’s NFL Draft there is a consensus top four among the offensive tackles. Although where they rank among the four is certainly up for debate.

With that on the mind and considering the NY Jets hold the 11th overall pick, a lot can happen in front of them with 10 players coming off the board.

ESPN’s Rich Cimini gave an insight into the “ESPN Draft Predictor” which was created by the ESPN Stats and Information department. In this scenario, it broke down the chances that each of the top four offensive tackles will be available with the 11th overall pick in the first round:

Andrew Thomas, Georgia: 53% chance he’ll be available. 

Jedrick Wills Jr, Alabama: 42% chance he’ll be available. 

Mekhi Becton, Louisville: 25% chance he’ll be available. 

Tristan Wirfs, Iowa: 6% chance he’ll be available. 

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In other words, according to the analytics, it’s highly unlikely that Tristan Wirfs or Mekhi Becton will be available when the NY Jets are officially on the clock. While it seems incredibly more likely that two SEC powerhouse offensive tackles could be available (Thomas, Wills Jr).

Thomas is a plug-and-play left tackle that also has some experience at right tackle from earlier in his collegiate career. The main criticism of his game is how much better can he get at the next level or has he peaked?

Jerick Wills is heralded for his elite foot quickness and his hands with what some scouts believe is an All-Pro level ceiling. While there are legitimate concerns for his average instincts and an inability to recognize the incoming blitz.

Mekhi Becton is the ultimate boom vs bust prospect in the 2020 NFL Draft. He has elite tools: (6-foot-7, 364 pounds), surprisingly nimble feet, and is considered one of the most vicious finishers in recent memory.

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Finally, Tristan Wirfs is an athletic freak that passed all of the offseason tests with flying colors. Also, you can’t ignore his prior institution of choice, Iowa, which has quite a reputation as a football factory for producing tough offensive linemen. Not a ton of experience at left tackle makes some teams weary.

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