5 Warning Signs That Can Derail this New York Jets Draft

There are many reasons for excitement after an active Jets free-agency that yielded LeVeon Bell and C.J. Mosley.  But there are interior and exterior forces at play that could lead to errors and overreach in this upcoming draft.

The Jets front office speaks about staying the course and sticking to the plan. But football is a results-oriented business, and any plan requires efficient execution.

For example, the Jets still must draft a feature wide receiver.  Imagine had GM Mike Maccagnan not totally whiffed on Devin Smith, ArDarius Stewart and/or Chad Hansen (those three NFL washouts a combined 28 career receptions!).  At press time, Sam Darnold‘s throwing to an undrafted free agent (Robby Anderson) and a John Idzik sixth-rounder (Quincy Enunwa).

There’d be no more mind-numbing talk of 2006’s trade of John Abraham had Maccagnan got anything out of edge-rushers Lorenzo Mauldin or Dylan Donahue.  Or there’d be no need to still draft a serviceable  NFL CB — let alone that “Revis Island” shutdown corner — had something/anything happened with Juston Burris, Jeremy Clark, Derrick Jones or Parry Nickerson, or with trading a fifth-rounder for Rashard Robinson.

Likewise, don’t be surprised if the Jets take a late-round flyer on another TE for Darnold’s arsenal.  Chris Herndon is a stud, but he’s suspended for the first three games.  And the future of the NYJ does not involve Jordan Leggett, Eric Tomlinson or Neal Sterling.  Such miscues retard progress.

This five-page breakdown identifies a few undeniable issues coming into play at this week’s Draft in Nashville.  One can only express confidence that the front office gets this one right.

Next: 5. Job Security

5. Job Security

Let’s not mince words:  GM Mike Maccagnan’s on the hot seat.  Entering Season Five of his tenure, the Jets roster remains thin on NFL talent, and “the rebuild” is back to Square One.

Maccagnan did not arise through the player ranks.  The former Texans tape-room whiz got this gig — one of only 32 — because of his personnel evaluation skills.  It’s a damning indictment when his work does not leapfrog the histories of his predecessors Mike Tannenbaum and John Idzik (neither currently employed in any NFL personnel capacity).

But even more important than a few incorrect draft choices — he’s literally wasted hundreds of millions of dollars on terrible free agent contracts, be it Darrelle Revis, Muhammad Wilkerson or Trumaine Johnson.

In light of this GM’s job security, one must worry about how that issue could lead to overreach.  Don’t forget the last time Maccagnan panicked — and spent a 2016 second-rounder on the worst QB in modern football history.

Next: 4. Trading Down

4.  Trading Down

Every franchise has stories of disastrous first-round draft busts. But other than a few notable exceptions, most Top Ten first-rounders offer some relative degree of performance certainty.

Heaven knows, you readers don’t need another rehash of Gang Green draft-day miscues.  But of this GM’s previous drafts, he had a Top-Six pick on three of four occasions. And he got it right with Sam Darnold, Jamal Adams, and possibly Leonard Williams, as foundational talents.

But after the empty promise of 2015’s 10-6 mark, this GM spent the 2016 Draft’s 20th overall pick on Darron Lee — who is on this week’s trading block and will yield at best an early Day Three selection.  Safety Marcus Maye, linebacker Jordan Jenkins, tight end Chris Herndon, tackle Brandon Shell and punter Lachlan Edwards are Macccagnan’s only other drafted starters.

The point of this glut of info is to address a central issue:  This roster is weak and thin because of poor decisions, particularly in the middle of the draft.  So why should we express confidence in this GM to trade down — and not select one of the top-three marquis defenders — so he can amass more picks, on players who more likely than not will not pan out?

Next: 3. Upcoming 2019 Schedule

3.  Upcoming 2019 Schedule

First, the good news — the Jets have winnable games in the second half of their 2019 slate.  They also won’t face any grueling West Coast trips, with no travel west of Cincinnati.

The bad news is, the early part of the season includes an early Week Four bye-week, and two games against their Super Bowl champion division rivals.  So ten wins, and any possible playoff scenario seems unlikely.

The new coaching staff could be tested early — in the likely occurrence of winning just two or three of their first eight games.  So this franchise’s realistic goal for 2019 should be achieving a .500 record while drafting and developing a new crop of young talent.

Then again, the Jets start this season at home against the Bills and Browns.  Adam Gase‘s Dolphins battered the Bills, and Gregg Williams knows the Browns inside out — and both want vengeance.  So a blazing 2-0 start would excite the MetLife fan base and build towards bigger things….

Next: 2. Family Tree

2.  Family Tree

Part of any GM job description is keeping things copacetic between explosive personalities.  So Trader Mike may want to mollify any potential conflict between “co-head coaches” Gase and Williams through the draft process.  Such moves may require occasionally straying from the organizational Big Board — which conflicts with that “best player available” mantra.

At least Gase didn’t repeat Todd Bowles‘ fatal flaw of hiring friends. But he created a tinderbox by bringing in his father-in-law Joe Vitt to work under Vitt’s “Bountygate” nemesis Williams.  Gase and Williams may be too headstrong to “lose the locker room,” but the two could clash — and lay blame for the lack of talent around their perspective units.

Williams is reportedly pounding the tables for Houston DT Ed Oliver.  He sees Oliver as his next Aaron Donald, an opinion which carries considerable weight.  Going into the 2018 NCAA season, Oliver rated as top prospect in the 2019 Draft.  But the Outland Trophy winner’s ranking fell slightly after an injury followed by a heated feud with coach Major Applewhite.

Williams is the kind of strong personality who lets you know that he’s the smartest man in the room.  When he doesn’t get what he wants, he has a well-earned rep for letting that be known, loud and clear.  Just one more issue to cloud the decision-making process.

Next: 1. Patriots Obsession

1.  Patriots Obsession

After their first team meeting with Gase, Jets players seemed impressed by his pumped-up, high-energy style.  But C.J. Mosley made troubling comments about Gase saying he’d come to New York for another shot at dethroning the Patriots.

Is this fragile franchise really going down that rabbit hole again?  Remember what that attitude did for the coaching careers of Eric Mangini and Rex Ryan!  At least Todd Bowles stuck with mumbling coachspeak…

Most disconcerting is how such feelings will play out during the draft process.  For instance, if the Patriots end up with a monster tight end like Noah Fant or Irv Smith Jr., does the GM feel compelled to reach for a linebacker better in pass coverage than Jordan Jenkins?  Or if the Pats take a QB, do the Jets reach on another edge-rusher?  Legitimate concerns.

On Draft Night, Maccagnan not only needs to be the adult in the room.  He needs to not “get cute” — and select that transformative player that will one day represent Gang Green in one of those ghastly yellow jackets in Canton.