New York Jets fans received news recently that had them in quite the stir. For anyone who missed it, we learned recently that the Jets are scheduling a pre-draft visit with Jameis Winston, many feel who will be the number one pick in the draft. Winston is widely considered the most pro-ready quarterback in the draft, and we have heard the Todd Bowles comments that they plan to add competition at the quarterback spot.
Why not be excited? I get it. I mean, we all want the Jets to finally find that elusive franchise quarterback.
Monday, it caused the uproar around many, as reporters began to use it to make the bold statement that the Jets are moving on from Geno Smith. Of course, nobody knows that at this point, and these articles have led readers to information about how the Jets are simply considering a trade to move up and draft either Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota. The Jets are doing their due diligence, as we would expect and hope for from the new regime.
But, looking at it realistically, it’s hard to see the Jets being able to trade up to the number one pick. It just isn’t realistic.
Back when Jimmy Johnson was the coach of the Dallas Cowboys, he was known for trading back in the draft, and obtaining additional picks. What he did was create a draft value chart, assigning a point value to each pick, take a look at the chart here. The chart earned such a good reputation that all teams have adapted it. In short, if a team is looking to trade up, the team that is on the other end looks to the chart to ascertain a fair package.
So let’s take a look at the chart. The Bucs hold the first pick, with a value of 3,000 points. So, in order to move up and take Winston, the Jets would need to come up with a package that would get them to 3,000 points. The sixth pick is worth only 1,600 points, so that really isn’t enough. The Bucs would hold the Jets up for more than that if they want to let Winston go. Even adding in their second round pick (#37), and their third round pick (#70), there would be just over 600 points to make up.
Do we want the Jets to give up half of their draft to be able to acquire Jameis Winston? A team coming off of a 4-12 record needs to keep or gain more picks, not trade them away.
The Jets could add picks in the future, but to be honest, that really isn’t what we want either. Jameis Winston may very well be a franchise quarterback, but maybe he is not. When you are rebuilding a franchise, you want to stockpile draft choices when you can. Look at the successful franchises, it is what they do.
The Jets could add a player, but who? Geno Smith? I don’t think that is going to work. The Bucs would likely want a player of significance in order to relinquish the number one pick. What if they want to poach our talented defensive line? Is Damon Harrison worth Jameis Winston? No. Jeremy Kerley? Heck no. No, I don’t have insight to what the Bucs will ask for, but I do know that if the Jets aren’t going to package several picks, they would have to give up a player of significance, and those are a couple of examples.
If the Bucs skip on Winston, all bets are off. All of a sudden, the picks have similar value. But the Jets trading up to number one to choose Winston? It sounds really good, but it just isn’t realistic.