NY Jets: Could they be dangerous once in the NFL Playoffs?

The NY Jets control their destiny in earning a spot in the NFL Playoffs but can they be dangerous if they get in?

The question lies of there, because we all know any team can make a run once your “in the tournament,” but how far can the Jets go?  There are two key elements to asking that question: health and execution in the grand scheme of it all.

The first one is very simple.  If this team is able to maintain its health, they will be dangerous in the playoffs.  They have had injuries to overcome this season.  Nick Mangold has battled injuries, and Darrelle Revis still has yet to clear concussion protocol.

The offensive line will be key to the Jets winning in the playoffs.  Mangold anchors the line and his injuries have taken him out of games.  When he has been out, the Jets’ offensive production precipitously drops.

Revis allows the defense to do things that they can’t do without his presence.  The fact that they have two shutdown corners allows Todd Bowles to formulate a more aggressive game-plan, which could be vital in the playoffs.

In the playoffs, the running game will be key.  While you can look at the stat book and see 4.2 yards per carry and think Chris Ivory has been efffective, some metrics on the other hand show otherwise.

Their running game needs improvement from both Ivory and their offensive line, according to the running back and offensive line metrics used by Football Outsiders.  To judge a running back’s overall effectiveness, they use a metric they call Defense-adjusted Value Over Average.

Dec 6, 2015; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets center Nick Mangold (74) snaps the ball against the New York Giants during overtime at MetLife Stadium. The Jets defeated the Giants 23-20 in overtime. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

According to the website it “represents value, per play, over an average running back in the same game situations.”  If a RB has a negative one, Ivory’s is -11.7%, under the given situations, they perceive that an average running back would perform better.

They also have metrics for the offensive line.  They use metrics called Power Success, Stuffed, Second Level Yards and Open Field Yards.  Power success is judged based on success on third- and fourth-down with 2 yards or less to go.  Second level yards are the average yards that give a team 5-10 yards, and Open Field Yards are the percentage of carries that lead to 10+ yards.  Stuffed is the percentage of carries that lead to no gain or lost yardage.

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According to the site, the Jets are in the middle of the pack or near the bottom in all categories.  Their Power Success (58%) ranks 25th, Stuffed ranking (25%) are 30th, Second Level Yards (1.03) are 22nd and Open Field Yards (0.84) are 14th in the NFL.

So, can the Jets be dangerous in the playoffs?  The answer is yes.  Are they currently a dangerous opponent?  The answer to that is probably no.  If they do indeed make the playoffs, it’s anyone’s guess but one thing is for sure, they have to clean up their running game and course-correct their offensive line issues if they are to have any hopes of advancing.