JETSerious’ Fantasy Outlook: Jets vs. Bills

Leading up to opening week of the 2012 NFL season, JETSerious will be providing fantasy advice for both the Jets and Bills. This will be a weekly routine, going in depth with the Jets, as well as their opponents players. I will do my best to keep it as realistic as possible, week to week.

Enjoy!

Week 1 – Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Jets QB Mark Sanchez:

In his most recent game vs. Buffalo, Mark put up good numbers. He was 17 of 35 for 180 yards, and 4 touchdowns.

ORCHARD PARK, NY - NOVEMBER 06: Mark Sanchez #6 of the New York Jets looks to pass against the Buffalo Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium on November 6, 2011 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Rick Stewart/Getty Images)

He also threw an interception. But the most important statistic has to be the 35 pass attempts. There’s no way Mark will be slinging it around that much this week… especially if the Jets have a lead. If the Jets get behind late in the game, they will be forced to pass. That will increase Mark’s attempts, but i’d still be surprised to see him go over 25 pass attempts.

Therefore, it’s more realistic to envision Mark throwing a touchdown or two.

You can count on two things:

1. Limited mistakes.

2. Average numbers.

Average might be a good thing for the team, though. Mark hasn’t had Santonio Holmes or Jeremy Kerley on the field for long. They made their preseason debut against Carolina, after returning from injuries… but it’s noticeable that there’s plenty of chemistry to build among Mark and his WR’s.

If Mark Sanchez is your starting QB for your fantasy squad, this would be a good week to start him. Considering the next 4 games, with the exception of Miami (week 3), this is the best week to call Mark’s #. Excluding the Miami game, the Jets play PIT, SF, and HOU … all of which have great defenses. So don’t expect big fantasy numbers for Mark during that stretch.

Start/Sit —-> Start.

Bills QB Ryan Fitzpatrick:

Ryan Fitzpatrick had a solid game Nov. 27, 2011 @ Metlife Stadium. He threw for 3 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. You could argue that he set up a potential 4th Quarter comeback, if it weren’t for Stevie Johnson’s drop. But after you take a look at the first matchup on Nov. 7th,  it’s hard to see Fitzpatrick repeating the 11/27 performance.

Playing the Jets at home week 7, Fitzpatrick had a miserable game. He was 15 of 31 for 191 yards. He did have 1 touchdown, but he also threw 2 interceptions. That will kill you as a fantasy owner.

Moving forward, I see Fitzpatrick’s numbers to be more like the first matchup in 2011. Rex Ryan and Mike Pettine have had all offseason to prepare for the Bills offense. With that being said, there’s reason to believe that Fitzpatrick will be looking at disguised coverages… leading to mass confusion for the Harvard graduate and the Buffalo Bills offense.

Expect good chunks of yardage for Fitzpatrick, but a couple of picks to go along. Personally, I’d look for a better option at QB for your starting lineup this week.

Start/Sit —–> Sit.

Jets RB Shonne Greene:

Shonn Greene should have a good game.

Scratch that…. He needs to have a good game.

If the Jets want to “Ground n Pound”, Greene has to earn himself somewhere around 4 yards per carry. This will help take pressure off of Mark Sanchez. It would be huge for Greene to get going early in the season, especially after the starting offense failed to score a touchdown during the pre-season. Not only would it take pressure off of Sanchez, but it would help him excel where he does best…. play-action.

Shonn Greene will get a workload from OC Tony Sparano. But can he handle it? I think so.

Prediction- 90 rushing yards, 1 TD.

Start/Sit —-> Start.

Bills RB Fred Jackson:

I have a good feeling that Fred Jackson wants redemption on the Jets. Why you ask? Well, when the Bills and Jets first met in 2011, Jackson had a bad game. Not only that, but he was mic’d up… to make matters worse. I’m sure that Jackson would have had a better game @ Metlife Stadium for the second matchup between the two teams… but he was injured and did not play on Nov. 27th.

So really, this is the first chance that Fred Jackson has to redeem himself after his poor performance on Nov. 7th. He had one fumble that game, which killed a drive for Buffalo. Later on, on 4th and 1, Bart Scott stopped Jackson behind the line, which helped the Jets seal a victory.

You can bet that Fred Jackson is motivated to get back on the field. I see him having a good game, but not a spectacular one.

Prediction 75 yards rushing – 1 TD rec

Start/Sit —-> Start.

Jets WR- Santonio Holmes:

Coming off a shaky offseason due to injury, don’t count on Holmes to put up great fantasy numbers. In the best case scenario, Holmes will grab a TD or two. Yet again, it’s more likely that he’ll have a modest performance. By modest, I mean that he will help the team to move the chains. For fantasy owners– that’s not good.

If Santonio Holmes is your #1 WR for fantasy, you’re in trouble. But if he’s your #3 or flex WR, it could be a lot worse than Santonio. For example, in my fantasy league, I have Andre Johnson and Steve Smith listed before Holmes on the depth chart. In my situation, it’s not such a bad idea to start Holmes. With that said, I can’t really see him going off on week 1 –with 4 TD’s.

Prediction: 6 rec for 72 yards and no TDs.

Start/Sit —-> Sit. 

**Note – Must start if he’s your best option at #3 WR/Flex.

Jets WR- Stephen Hill:

It’s hard to predict what Hill might do week 1, but it’d be a stretch to rely on him right out of the gate. Considering all of the drops he had during the pre-season,  it’s tough to see his full potential… especially at the NFL level.

I really like Stephen Hill, but I recommend avoiding combining the rookie WR and fantasy football. It’s always good to hope he goes off, but let’s be realistic here… it’s way too early/difficult to know how Hill will perform.

Prediction: 4 receptions for 35 yards and no TDs.

Start/Sit —-> Sit.

Bills WR- Stevie Johnson:

EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ - NOVEMBER 27: Steve Johnson #13 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates his touchdown against the New York Jets during their pre season game on November 27, 2011 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Photo by Al Bello/Getty Images)

This is a tough one. He will be matched up on Revis Island. If you want a few points and don’t have much depth at WR, it’s your call if you want to start him…but I wouldn’t.

It’s hard to see him scoring at all. I can see Revis giving up a few slants (again), but that’s pretty much it. If those 5 or so points are better than anyone will provide u on your bench, then go for it.

Again, I’d bench Stevie Johnson… but I’m going to leave this one up to you.

My reasoning is this:

Darrelle Revis will allow Johnson to get the yards– similar to last year. However, he’s not going to let him score.

You can bet that Stevie Johnson won’t be doing the Jet celebration again this Sunday– like he is pictured right.

So if you rely on yardage in your league, it’s not a bad idea to give him a go. As long as you feel the yards will give you the points you need to win your matchup… then there’s nothing wrong with that.

Prediction: 6 receptions for 62 yards and 0 TD’s.

Start/Sit —-> Sit.

**Note: Like I said before, this one is up in the air. It’s your call… depending on your lineup.

Please turn page….where JETSerious will break down the Tight Ends, Defenses, and even a fantasy sleeper!

Jets TE- Dustin Keller:

Nov 1, 2009; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets tight end Dustin Keller (81) makes a diving touchdown catch on a pass from New York Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez (6) during the 2nd half at Giants Stadium. The Dolphins defeated the Jets 30-25. Mandatory Credit: Ed Mulholland

Coming off a hammy injury, it could be risky starting Keller. But he did have a couple of solid games last year vs. the Bills. In the two division games against Buffalo, Keller was able to average 4 receptions for 62.5 yards and 1 touchdown. That’s exactly what you want to see from your starting TE, fantasy or not.

You can bet that Keller will be a good threat on the play action pass/red zone offense. Keller tends to do well against the AFC East, so there’s not a great reason to say, “sit him”.

Prediction: 5 receptions for 58 yards and 1 touchdown.

Start/Sit —-> Start.

Bills TE- Scott Chandler:

Iffy. Chandler could have a TD reception, but that’s all… if he gets that.

LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell will be patrolling between the hash marks ALL DAY. I’d be surprised to see Chandler get more than 25 rec yards.

He is, however, a big red-zone target. So it’s almost impossible to say whether he will score or not. He could have one reception for one yard, but have one touchdown. If that works for you, then pull the trigger and start Chandler.

At the same time, I imagine that there are better options for your fantasy team at Tight End.

I had Chandler on my fantasy team last year… but that only lasted a couple of weeks. He’s too inconsistent. Especially with the Bills spread offense. I recommend finding a better option if your an owner of Scott Chandler.

Start/Sit —-> Sit.

Jets Defense:

In my league, I have the Jets defense starting week 1. Coached by a defensive guru like Rex Ryan, it’s easy to predict that the Jets will have a top 10 defense this year… if not top 5. I see the Jets defense creating a few turnovers, thus making them worth starting. If you are starting the Jets defense this week, you should go in and out of the game feeling comfortable with your decision.

Prediction: 3 sacks, 2 interceptions, 1 touchdown allowed.

Start/Sit —-> Start.

Bills Defense:

The new look Bills D seems like a good one (on paper). But with Mario Williams, Marcell Darius, Kyle Williams, and Nick Barnett… it’s hard to see the Jets throwing a perfect game. I envision a few sacks, because quite frankly, it’s hard to defend everyone when your stuck focusing on Mario Williams all day.

Not to mention, the Bills secondary is a decent one. They were able to create 30 takeaways last season. But still, it’s hard to imagine that the Jets will be chucking the ball up in the debut of the “run first, turnover free” Tony Sparano offense.

Prediction: 3 sacks, 1 fumble recovery, 2 touchdowns allowed.

Start/Sit —-> Start.

**Note- If you have a better defense on your squad (49ers, Texans, Ravens, Steelers) there’s no need to force a start for the Bills new look D.

Jets/Bills Sleeper:

Tim Tebow.

Lined up as a Wildcat QB or  a spread option QB, you can bet that Tim Tebow will get his touches.

Without a doubt, he will be a factor in this matchup. Mike Westhoff might even have a special teams trick for Tebow up his sleeve. I wouldn’t rule it out. Tebow will run the rock more than he’ll throw it (of course). But the problem with Tebow is this:

You CANNOT start him. He is not the starting QB of the New York Jets. So it would be foolish to bench another starting QB in favor of the Wildcat QB.

Don’t get me wrong, he will have an impact. But he’s not worth starting.

If Tebow is listed as anything but QB, I might say that he’s worth the start. But that’s not the case. Tebow is listed strictly as a QB, and unless he’s a starter, it’s a no brainer to let him sit the bench…. or even find another free agent option that could help your team to victory. You can take a risk and start Tim Tebow at QB… but there’s always the chance that he could be blocking all game on special teams– like he is pictured left.

Prediction: 40 yards rushing 1 TD

Start/Sit —-> Sit.

As always, thanks for reading!

Stay tuned for next week’s fantasy breakdown…

And be sure to Follow @JETSerious on Twitter!