The NY Jets could be on the verge of trading for Aaron Rodgers. With one week until the start of the legal-tampering period of free agency, the Jets are expected to resolve their quarterback situation within the coming days.
Perhaps that could mean that they sign Derek Carr. Carr would reportedly prefer to sign with the Jets over the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers, but the Jets aren't ready to commit just yet.
That's because they continue to wait on a decision from Rodgers. The future Hall of Fame quarterback emerged from his darkness retreat over a week ago and has yet to publicly make his intentions clear.
However, rumors suggest that Rodgers' options are limited. The Packers are reportedly ready to move on from Rodgers and many don't expect him to be able to return in 2023, even if he wants to. It might be the Jordan Love show in Green Bay next season.
That leaves Rodgers with two options: either retire or request a trade. To limit his options even further, the Jets appear to be the only logical landing spot for him. If Rodgers is traded, it's almost definitely going to be to the Jets.
So does Rodgers retire or does he request a trade to the Jets? With such a limited set of options and no direct competitor, Rodgers' trade value might be very limited. The Packers have reportedly been looking for at least a first-round pick, but it's hard to believe they get that at this stage.
NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah recently reported that he doesn't believe it would take a first-round pick to trade for Rodgers, while also suggesting that a trade to the Jets seems to be the most likely outcome.
We ran through a few potential trade packages for Rodgers over a month ago, but a lot has changed since then. What could the Jets realistically offer for Rodgers now that his trade value has taken a hit?
Here are three possible scenarios.
1. NY Jets trade 2023 second and third-round picks for Aaron Rodgers
It's really difficult to predict exactly what Rodgers' trade value might be given all of the variables and uncertainty regarding his future, not to mention his own intentions for the 2023 season.
For the sake of this exercise, we're going to use this trade package as a baseline for the other proposals. The Jets hold on to the No. 13 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft but surrender their second and third-round picks.
This is still an excellent deal for the Packers as they manage to land a trade package roughly equivalent to the value of the 26th or 27th overall pick, using Jimmy Johnson's standard trade value chart.
Reports indicate the Packers might not be able to land a first-round pick so this could theoretically be too rich, but again, it's nearly impossible to determine exactly what his value would be.
In this scenario, the Jets retain their first-round pick that they could use to continue building the roster around Rodgers, quite possibly using the selection to draft an offensive lineman.
The Packers would then end up with five picks in the first three rounds and, perhaps most appealing, they wouldn't be landing any conditional picks based on playing time, roster status, team success, etc.
Both picks in this deal are guaranteed to be exactly what they are on paper. The Packers land the equivalent of a late first-round pick, and the Jets land the star quarterback they've been searching for.
This feels like a fair baseline for both parties given Rodgers' diminished trade value.
2. NY Jets trade a 2023 second-round pick and a conditional 2024 second-round pick for Aaron Rodgers
This would be the most Jets-friendly trade package in this article. Rather than send Green Bay multiple Day 2 picks in 2023, the Jets send their second-round pick to the Packers along with a conditional pick in 2024.
The conditional pick is a 2024 selection that could become a second-rounder depending on a variety of factors. The Jets could tie the condition to Rodgers' roster status in 2024, although the timing of that might be difficult.
If the Jets want assurance that Rodgers will stick around for longer than one season, tying draft compensation to roster conditions makes sense.
The Jets can also approach that conditional selection from a different perspective. The condition could be dependent on team success in 2023. If the Jets reach the playoffs with Rodgers, make the Super Bowl, etc.
Another possible condition could be based on Rodgers' individual performance. We're talking specific statistical achievements, awards, etc. — anything that equates to individual player success.
Given the immense number of variables related to any Rodgers trade, it would make sense for the Jets to utilize at least one conditional selection. This one allows them to hold on to their third-round pick, while Green Bay could recoup a future second-round pick if the conditions are met.
The Packers would almost certainly push for more than this, but if Rodgers decides he wants to play elsewhere and no other suitor emerges, they might not have much of a choice.
3. NY Jets trade a conditional 2024 first-round pick and a 2023 third-round pick for Aaron Rodgers
If the Packers are serious about acquiring a first-round pick in some capacity, the Jets could still work out a trade for Rodgers. It might just require a bit of creativity from both sides.
We already covered why a conditional pick makes so much sense on the last slide, but rather than tie a condition to a Day 2 selection like in that proposal, this one is tied to a first-round pick.
The Jets don't give up anything more than a third-round pick in 2023, but they pair that with a possible 2024 first-round pick. The conditions for that selection could be tied to anything we've already discussed (roster status, team performance, individual performance, etc.).
This is probably a best-case scenario for Jets general manager Joe Douglas. There's no guarantee that Douglas is even with the organization in 2024. If Rodgers flops in New York, the Jets will likely clean house next offseason.
That leaves Douglas in a win-win scenario. Either Rodgers succeeds, and Douglas isn't exactly upset about losing future draft capital, or Rodgers fails, and Douglas isn't even around to feel the ramifications of the trade.
As for the Packers, they're able to potentially land the first-round pick they were looking for. It might be in the form of a conditional future first-round pick, but it counts for something.
Packers GM Brian Gutekunst is able to salvage a pretty appealing trade package even with Rodgers' market drying up. Both teams should be happy with this outcome.

