3 trade packages the NY Jets can offer for Aaron Rodgers

The Aaron Rodgers trade rumors have only grown more expansive over the last few days, especially as it pertains to the NY Jets. The recent hiring of Nathaniel Hackett has only added further fuel to those rumors.

Rodgers' future in Green Bay looks more uncertain than it ever has. A combination of Rodgers' recent comments along with numerous reports suggests that the Packers may very well move on from their longtime franchise quarterback this offseason.

Of course, that's what many believed would be the case a year ago, especially after the Denver Broncos hired Hackett. But the situation is different in 2023.

The Packers recognize that, even with Rodgers, they're likely not serious Super Bowl contenders next season. On top of that, there's the fact that Jordan Love is essentially demanding an opportunity to start in 2023.

The Packers would take on a ridiculous dead cap hit in 2023 if they were to trade Rodgers (partially because it would likely have to be before Jun. 1), but the franchise might just decide it's time to rip the band-aid off.

If that's the case and Rodgers is moved, the Jets appear to be the most feasible landing spot.

The Jets have a roster ready to compete now, and the current regime knows that they need to hit on a quarterback this offseason if they're to hold on to their jobs for another year. Rodgers gives them the highest ceiling of any potentially available QB not named Lamar Jackson.

And unlike Jackson, it shouldn't take numerous first-round picks to acquire Rodgers. Ignore the recent report about the Packers looking for two first-round picks — that isn't going to happen.

If Rodgers is traded, the compensation would likely be significantly lower than that. Exactly what Rodgers' market is remains unclear, but we took our best guess as to what his value might be.

Here are three potential trade packages for Aaron Rodgers that we came up with.

1. The standard Aaron Rodgers trade package

This is the baseline trade package we're going to use for the three deals on this list. I don't think the Packers get a first-round pick for a 39-year-old Aaron Rodgers coming off a down year.

Combine that with Rodgers' uncertainty beyond 2023, and it seems unlikely that Green Bay will be able to get the package they're looking for. This deal, however, makes sense for both sides.

The Jets send Green Bay the 43rd overall pick in this year's draft, along with a conditional 2024 first-round pick in exchange for Rodgers. What is the condition, exactly? Well, that much could be up for debate.

As a quick side note, we're going to be dealing with conditional picks in all three trade proposals, so much like Rodgers' contract, this could get complicated.

That conditional first-round pick would likely be dependent on two factors. The first factor would be whether or not Rodgers actually plays in 2024. If he retires, the Jets wouldn't be giving up that first-round pick. Perhaps it becomes a later pick, or perhaps the pick is scrapped entirely.

The second factor could be performance. Perhaps that condition is tied to statistical achievements Rodgers could reach. Perhaps it's tied to team performance, as in the Jets reaching the playoffs, Super Bowl, etc.

Either way, the conditional element is necessary for any Rodgers trade because of the uncertainty. Even if Rodgers is traded, the future Hall of Famer will likely go through a similar song and dance about his future next offseason. It seems to be an annual tradition at this point.

Any team trading for Rodgers would want to cover their bases and protect their assets. That significantly limits what the Packers could receive in return.

Ultimately, this feels like a fair deal for both sides. The Packers receive a top-50 pick in this year's draft and could receive a first-round pick next year if the conditions are met.

This is a reasonable baseline deal.

2. The Corey Davis trade package

If the Jets don't want to give up a top 50 pick in this year's draft, they could push some of that draft capital back to 2024. This would also help a Packers team that would be strapped for cap space this season.

Trading Rodgers would handcuff the Packers with one of the largest cap hits in NFL history. It requires money to sign draft picks, and given how tight Green Bay will be against the cap, perhaps pushing that draft capital to 2024 would make some sense.

In this scenario, the Jets send a 2023 third-round pick to the Packers, along with conditional 2024 first and second-round picks, as well as wide receiver Corey Davis. They receive Rodgers and a 2023 seventh-round pick in return.

There's a lot going on in this trade proposal, so let's break down the easy stuff first. The Jets send a 2023 third-round pick instead of a second and throw in Davis who is a potential cap casualty this offseason.

The Packers have shown interest in Davis in the past, and he could help bolster a depleted receiving corps, especially with Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb set to hit free agency. Ultimately, though, he's mostly a throw-in.

The real value comes with the conditional 2024 first and second-round picks. In this scenario, I'd say the first-round pick would be dependent on whether or not Rodgers retires. If Rodgers is on the Jets' roster come Week 1 of 2024, the pick would be transferred.

The second-round pick, however, could be performance-based. This could be one of those Calvin Ridley-like conditional picks that can stretch anywhere between a second and, say, a fourth-round pick.

If the Jets reach the Super Bowl with Rodgers, it can be a second-round pick. If they make the playoffs, it's a third-round pick. If they miss the playoffs entirely, then it's a fourth-round pick.

It's complicated, sure, but so too is this entire situation. Conditional picks are necessary for any Rodgers trade, and this one provides the Jets with security and the Packers with upside.

3. The NY Jets give up their first-round pick trade package

What if the Packers are committed to receiving a first-round pick in this year's draft? After all, Green Bay could save significant money if they wait to make a trade until after Jun. 1.

The biggest downside with that, however, aside from a limited market, would be that the Packers would defer their draft compensation a year. They want their picks and they want them now.

The Jets could entertain trading their first-round pick, but only if they receive some draft compensation back. In this scenario, the Jets trade back from No. 13 to No. 45 in the second round and receive a fourth-round pick (No. 115) for their troubles.

They, obviously, receive Rodgers as well and send the Packers a conditional 2024 second-round pick. The conditions for this pick could be similar to the conditions we've discussed already.

Using Jimmy Johnson's trade valuation model, the difference between picks No. 13 and No. 45 is roughly equivalent to the 27th overall pick in the draft. If you subtract the value of that fourth-round pick then it's roughly the value of the 31st or 32nd pick in the draft.

That means the Jets would be sending the equivalent of a very late first-round pick to the Packers for Rodgers, as well as a potential second-round pick in 2024. Ultimately, it's similar value to the first trade package on this list.

The benefit for Green Bay is that they receive an extra first-round pick in this year's draft, which is always more valuable than waiting until 2024. After all, the expectation is that the Jets would pick later than No. 13 next year (at least, that's the hope).

For the Jets, they would still have two top-45 picks, as well as a pair of fourth-round selections, to do some damage with. A trade-up would always be possible if need be.

These three trade packages all feel reasonable to me — a lot more reasonable than the two first-round picks package that's been proposed. What do you think?