The NY Jets will travel to Seattle in search of their first victory in Week 14.
Seattle forecasts are calling for rain, so we could be in for a sloppy, slow-paced, non-offensive game between the Jets and Seahawks that could very well play in the Jets’ favor.
Funny how in the age of misinformation and distrust the weathermen are the ones who seem to be getting things right at a more rampant rate. Go figure.
13.5 points is a lot to cover and the fact that Seattle just got upset by the New York Giants last week is driving a lot of people to the Jets this week to at least get the cover.
It makes a lot of sense, don’t get me wrong. Potential bad weather game mixed with two struggling offenses is a recipe for a low-scoring Seattle victory with the Jets keeping it close.
But I’m going against the grain this week and taking Seattle to win and cover. The over/under is a lot more intriguing to me, but I’ll get to that in a bit.
Seattle is actually only 11-8 all-time versus the Jets, 3-5 in their last eight meetings, and 4-8 in their last 12. At home, Seattle is 3-3 in their last six against the Jets and 5-3 all-time. So, it’s fair to say the Jets have had some good history against the Seahawks, especially in Seattle.
Sam Darnold is also a West Coast kid coming out of San Clemente, CA. Not to this point (unless I’m way off) has Darnold gotten himself a legit West Coast game yet in his career.
He would have gotten one if he had played in the Chargers game, but that was Joe Flacco who took the snaps in Sam’s stead.
Coming into this season, I saw the road games against the Chargers, Seahawks, and Rams as potential upset spots for this team because of Darnold’s West Coast roots.
The fact that Seattle looked as bad as it did on offense last week only furthers such a narrative. The Jets are also 4-2 in their last six games against the spread.
The NY Jets are in for a tough matchup against the Seahawks
However, here’s where I drift away Dobie Gray style from the Jets getting anything at all out of this game. I actually think the over being hit would indicate the Jets covering 13.5.
The under would indicate the opposite for me as I can easily see Seattle and the Jets stumbling through the first half on offense and then Seattle catching fire late to pull out the last-minute cover.
If we look at the data for over/unders in this matchup, not only do we have to take the rainy weather into consideration, but we also have numbers on the side of the under in that 3-of-19 games between these two teams overall (16 percent) and 1-of-8 games between these two in Seattle (13 percent) have gone over 46.5 points.
Such low percentages for such a low total with bad weather and two struggling offenses mixed in there just don’t do it for me to pick the over in this game.
The Jets are also 3-5 in their last eight with hitting overs in their games while Seattle is 3-6 in their last nine.
But wouldn’t a low-scoring game just make the Jets all the more likely to cover 13.5 points?
Well, four of Seattle’s 11 wins against the Jets have covered 13.5 points. That’s 36 percent. When those wins come at home against the Jets, then 2-of-5 victories covered 13.5 points (40 percent).
I think we’re going to have a situation in this game where both offenses come out sloppy in the bad weather and it won’t be until the second half that the Seahawks pull away with it.
Regardless of where either offense is at this point in the season. Regardless of what the weather is going to be in dreary Seattle. The Jets are still a team that Russell Wilson demolishes.
He’s 2-0 against the Jets and has completed 69 percent of his passes with nearly 500 yards passing and five touchdowns to zero interceptions.
On top of that, he has the second-best passer rating against his opponents with a 132.6. Only against one other team is he better in that department.
I think Wilson turns it on in the second half and the Seahawks are able to win and cover 13.5 points. Give me the Seahawks 24-7 and the under 46.5 to be hit.
Seattle has a bit of a pass rush nowadays and the Jet offensive line is beat to hell, so watch out Darnold. This game will be ugly for the most part, but I think Seattle will still manage to separate themselves.