The NY Jets are set to take on the Los Angeles Chargers on the road in Week 11.
It feels like forever since the NY Jets played their last game, and now at 0-9, they travel cross-country to take on rookie sensation Justin Herbert and the 2-7 Los Angeles Chargers.
One thing the Jets have done the past three games is surprise us. After starting out 0-5 against the spread as underdogs, the Jets managed to cover their games against the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots to bring their ATS record to now 2-6 as underdogs.
The last time I talked to you guys, we were landing on the Kansas City Chiefs beating the Jets and covering 19.5 points which turned out to be a resounding success from a betting standpoint.
Two weeks ago when the Jets played last, I took the week off and left you guys hanging with the Patriots game, but I had the Patriots winning and covering 7.5 points while hitting the over of 42.
I went 2-for-3 in that game since the Jets only lost by a field goal and now we come to Week 11 where all of a sudden a Jets cover is not completely out of the question even in a possible losing effort.
This week, it’s 8.5 points the Jets have to try and account for against the Chargers on the road (that’s the number the last time I checked; I got a little ahead of the game this week and locked in my bets as of Thursday night).
Not a particularly daunting task when you know the logistics behind what the Chargers have done this year. If the Jets can cover against the Bills and Patriots, they can certainly cover against the 2-7 Bolts.
The Chargers this year are 1-3-1 ATS as favorites and in case you haven’t been keeping up with them, they have been a team that has played down to down competition and up to up competition since they’re 3-1 ATS as underdogs, and now you know their record as favorites.
On top of that, we also have the fact that even though the Bolts own this series between them and the Jets 22-14-1 with a more recent record of 5-2 and a current three-game winning streak.
The Jets are actually 4-2 in their last six and 6-3 in their last nine road games against the Chargers. Joe Flacco is also 4-2 against them in the regular season.
Coming off a bye week and an inspired performance two weeks ago against Bill Belichick’s Patriots, there might be a little something cooking to make this a game.
Here’s where I’m going to be a downer, and when I worked this stat out, I was shocked.
The Chargers have beaten the Jets 22 times in their history. In 16 of those wins, the Chargers covered 8.5 points. That comes out to 73 percent of the time the Chargers beat the Jets, they also win by 8.5 points.
That percentage drops a little when talking about home games for the Chargers against the Jets. 9-of-13 games that the Chargers have won at home have covered 8.5 points, so 69 percent. Still pretty staggering.
When we compare those percentages to the rest of the field of favorites this week, the Bolts land tied for seventh of 14 favorites in teams most likely to cover. However, since their mark is 8.5 points to cover, the fact that they’re even middle-of-the-pack is incredible.
So, if the Chargers are going to win this game, there’s a more-than-fair chance they also win by a touchdown and a field goal. And considering the Jets have still yet to win without Sam Darnold since he came into the league, I’d say that’s also a pretty fair chance.
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The NY Jets need to perform on offense to cover or win this game
It comes down to how the Jets perform on offense and if they can hit the over of 46.5 (again, the last time I checked, that’s what the total was).
11-of-37 games between these two teams overall (30 percent) and 8-of-21 games at the Chargers in this series (38 percent) have gone over 46.5 points. Not particularly a high total nor a high percentage of success in hitting over that total.
When compared to the rest of the field, again, this game is right smack in the middle-of-the-pack so it can honestly go either way.
My biggest thing is that on one hand, Joey Bosa is coming back this week for the Chargers, so there will be an added boost to the Charger pass rush that banged-up rookie Mekhi Becton will be saddled with when Bosa lines up on that side.
Considering Flacco isn’t the most mobile quarterback and that the Jets have allowed 26 sacks thus far in 2020, I’d say that’s bad news for the Jets.
On the other hand, the Chargers can move the ball whereas the Jets cannot. The Jets are 32nd in the league (as of the end of Week 10) in YPG where Los Angeles is fourth.
The Jets are 32nd in PYPG where Los Angeles is seventh. The Jets are 27th in RYPG where Los Angeles is ninth. And finally, the Jets are dead last in PPG while Los Angeles is 17th.
This is an active offense for the Jets to have to keep up with this week. Unlike their games against slumping Buffalo and wide receiver-less New England, the Chargers have a legit offense that will move the football.
I’m not sure the Jets are able to keep pace even after a bye week and a lot of confidence from the Patriots game. So, I’m going to take the Chargers in this game 28-14 and the under 46.5 to be hit.
I’m taking a risk betting on the Jets taking a step back from the progress they’ve made on offense, but I just feel like this a game the Chargers are going to do really well in given the fact that they desperately need a win.