Here are four potential NFL Draft day trade down packages the NY Jets should consider in the first round to acquire more capital.
The NY Jets have eight selections in the upcoming 2020 NFL Draft. If general manager Joe Douglas had it his way, he’d like to acquire even more picks not only for this year’s draft, but future drafts as well.
Since this is Douglas’ first offseason running a free agency period and a draft, we can only understand what we’ve witnessed so far. It seems like Joe used free agency to add some depth to the team, but wasn’t willing to be financially irresponsible.
That’s all well and good as long as Joe Douglas delivers when it matters most: the 2020 NFL Draft.
Earlier this week we discussed three potential trade-up scenarios for the NY Jets (full details here). Although according to Douglas’ former teammate and current NFL Draft analyst for ESPN Todd McShay believes if the team does anything, they’ll move down from the 11th overall pick.
With that as the backdrop, we mirrored our trade-up scenarios with four potential trade down scenarios for the NY Jets to consider with the 11th overall pick in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft.
Next: 4. Moving down the board slightly
The simplest and most likely trade down option that’ll be on the table is with the Denver Broncos who hold the 15th overall pick in the 2020 NFL Draft.
While on the surface the 11th overall pick doesn’t sound appealing since 10 players will be taken ahead of the NY Jets selection, it actually will prove quite fruitful. Many draft experts expect the entire grouping of wide receivers to still be available at that spot.
With great power comes great responsibility and there should be in theory no shortage of suitors to move up to pick the first receiver off the board. Now in terms of straight-up value for value, this simulated trade above between the Jets and Broncos is nearly identical.
The Jets 11th overall pick is worth 1250 points and the Broncos 1st round pick (15th overall) is worth 1050 points so they would need to throw in their third-round pick (77th overall) which is worth an additional 205 points.
This would provide Gang Green with 3 third-round picks (all in the top-80) and the 15th overall pick could still provide the team an opportunity to go wide receiver (whoever is left) or second-tier offensive tackle (Austin Jackson or Josh Jones). Not a bad consolation prize if you ask me.
Next: 3. Dropping to a different tier
As we just mentioned a moment ago, there should be no shortage of suitors for the 11th overall pick if all the top wide receivers are still on the board (which is super likely). Now the big question Joe Douglas and the NY Jets have to ponder is how far down the board are they willing to drop?
At a certain point, they have to ask themselves if the juice is worth the squeeze. In this case, by dropping from 11 to 21 they’ll likely fall out of the range of the premier wide receivers (Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, and Henry Ruggs III) and the top two tiers of offensive tackles (Andrew Thomas, Mekhi Becton, Tristan Wirfs, and Jedrick Wills Jr).
Although on the other side of the coin they would reap the benefits of dropping that far by picking up a ton of value from the Philadelphia Eagles. The NY Jets would still have a first-round pick (21st overall), they’d now have two second-round picks (48 and 53) and the team would have 3 third-round picks (68, 79, and 103).
This much draft capital would allow the NY Jets to go for a quantity approach as it pertains to the team’s remaining needs at wide receiver, offensive tackle, edge rusher, cornerback, and backup quarterback in no particular order.
The harsh reality of the situation is the NY Jets aren’t one piece away from a championship. So it would behoove the team to acquire more assets to get closer to competing. Gang Green isn’t all that far away from competing but it starts and ends with a successful 2020 NFL Draft class.
Next: 2. Blockbuster NFL Draft trade
Every year teams at the backend of round one call up to the teams near the top of the 2020 NFL Draft. Obviously to make a leap of this magnitude on draft day is pretty cost-prohibitive.
Consider this, the Green Bay Packers 30th overall pick is worth a measly 620 points. The Jets 11th overall pick is valued at 1250 points (worth over twice as much). So Green Bay has to get pretty creative to entice the Jets to drop 19 spots in the first round.
In this projected trade the Packers give up their first in 2020, a future first-round pick, and their 2020 second-round pick. This package may not be enough and quite frankly it could take another mid-round pick to seal the deal (whether that be in the third or fourth-round) for the Jets.
This trade feeds back into what we just discussed, since Gang Green isn’t a piece away, why not trade back and keep building this thing. Having two first-rounders in next year’s draft is going to be super helpful and you’ll still have plenty of picks in this year’s draft to help out your quarterback Sam Darnold.
Teams trading up with the NY Jets will likely be hunting one of two things: a top-flight wide receiver or one of the last remaining talented offensive tackles. The struggle for Gang Green is they could use help in either of those areas. A tough decision for Joe Douglas running his first draft ever as a general manager.
Next: 1. YOU CAN'T DO THAT TRADE!
The #Jets Zone w/ @BoyGreen25 feat. @nyjets Team Reporter @EGreenbergJets:– Answered your #TakeFlight fan mail on 2020 #NFLDraft, #FreeAgency. – How has #coronavirus affected day-to-day operations for #NYJ?– Top takeaways from Joe Douglas presser.https://t.co/IxdeM6hogq
— The Jets Zone (@TheJets_Zone) April 2, 2020
Under normal circumstances, trading within your division goes against every unwritten and written rule that exists in the handbook. But as we know, 2020 has proven to be far from normal circumstances.
The reason why we provided two scenarios and why we’re willing to break normal rules is because the Miami Dolphins are absolutely loaded with 2020 NFL Draft capital. Since they own three first-round picks that each vary in value, we can get pretty creative with potential trades and that’ll be tempting to the NY Jets.
The NY Jets 11th overall pick is worth 1250 points, so if the Miami Dolphins want to acquire it they’ll have to give at least that much back in return.
Here’s a quick peek at all of their picks and their inherent trade values:
- 5th overall pick (first round, 1700 points)
- 18th overall pick (first round, 900 points)
- 26th overall pick (first round, 700 points)
- 39th overall pick (second round, 510 points)
- 56th overall pick (second round, 340 points)
- 70th overall pick (third round, 240 points)
- 141st overall pick (fourth round, 35.5 points)
- 153rd overall pick (fifth round, 29 points)
- 154th overall pick (fifth round, 28.6 points)
- 173rd overall pick (fifth round, 21 points)
- 185th overall pick (sixth round, 16.2 points)
- 227th overall pick (seventh round, 1 point)
- 246th overall pick (seventh round, 1 point)
- 251st overall pick (seventh round, 1 point)
All in all the Miami Dolphins own 14 selections in the 2020 NFL Draft! So that presents a lot of potential options to move around the draft board (unless your John Idzik).
There are many possibilities with this many selections, but we boiled it down to two potential trade packages between the Dolphins and the Jets. If you’re the green and white you’ll drop down seven spots and you’ll scoop up a second-round pick (backend selection).
Or if you’re willing to drop a little bit further in round one (from 11 to 26), you’ll pick up a very nice second-rounder (39th overall) and a fourth-round pick so everything equals out on the NFL Trade Value Chart (via Draft Tek). Both scenarios present interesting results for the NY Jets.
Why would the Miami Dolphins be moving up? Likely with the fifth overall pick the team will get its quarterback of the future (perhaps Tua Tagovailoa of Alabama or Justin Herbert of Oregon). That fills one massive hole, but speaking of voids the team has absolutely nothing at offensive tackle.
If they launch up to No. 11 they can fill the massive void at either left or right tackle. By potentially staying at 18 or 26, the team could miss out on all the premier studs in the trenches. The question the Jets have to consider is do they want to help a division rival out, despite what they’d net in a potential trade?