Feb 22, 2014; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Clemson wide receiverSammy Watkins
speaks at the NFL Combine at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Pat Lovell-USA TODAY Sports
Let’s have a little bit of fun as we look forward to the NFL draft this May.
We know how John Idzik feels about draft picks. They are the “lifeline” of a team that is building sustainable success. The more draft picks the better, as the Seahawks have shown in building their championship team. The Patriots taught the world the same thing.
With all that, it is not likely that John Idzik will move the team up too far on draft day.
However, what if Sammy Watkins is the exception to John Idzik’s rule? Could he be high enough on the Jets’ draft board to be worth a trade? And if so, could it be done for a reasonable price?
If you believe the reports during the Combine, the Jets had multiple meetings planned with Sammy Watkins. That is not typical of a team doing simple due diligence. A player is met with multiple times when the team wants to acquire that player. So clearly, the Jets are interested in Sammy Watkins.
Our own JETSerious explored this possibility several days ago. I took a look at the idea as well and had some ideas to make this possible, and not cripple the 2014 draft either.
The frame of reference is the trade value chart for draft picks, seen by clicking here. This chart reflects the point value assigned to every draft pick, and it is what the teams use to determine the value of their picks, and therefore, the equity of proposed trades. It serves as the reference for this article.
The earliest Sammy Watkins seems to be going in the mock drafts is fourth, to the Cleveland Browns. So, let’s look at that pick. The pick is worth 1,800 points, so the Jets would have to construct an offer that comes close to 1,800 draft points to make it worth it to the Browns.
First, the Jets would give their first round choice, the 18th overall, which is worth 900 points. Add their third round pick, the 80th overall choice, which is worth 190 points. So far, the Jets are offering(in this scenario) 1,090 draft value points.
Now, we make up the difference with the 2015 draft. The Jets would give the Browns their 2015 first round choice, and a conditional third rounder. What would the conditions be? If the Jets make the playoffs, they would add the third rounder, if not, they don’t. The value of the first round pick of a playoff team, per the chart, goes from 800-590, so if the Jets were in the 2014 playoffs, the pick would not likely be worth enough to equal the value of pick four. So, the third rounder would come in to balance things out.
This doesn’t cripple the Jets’ for 2014 either. Losing two picks would not do that, since the Jets are likely to have 12 picks as it stands right now, with four of them being compensatory, therefore not tradable. Leaving themselves with ten picks is not a lost cause.
So, the Jets could make this move, and not cripple the draft in either season. It’s not likely, knowing John Idzik as we do, but it’s possible. What do you guys think?