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Breaking Down The Potential New York Jets’ Draftees: Wide Receivers

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Dec 31, 2013; Atlanta, GA, USA; Texas A

Greg Peshek, otherwise known on Twitter as @NU_Gap, has done two pieces breaking down the top wide receivers entering the 2014 NFL Draft for Rotoworld. You can see them in their entirety here and here. Peshek measures where they get the ball on the field, what they do after the catch, what routes they run and their drop rate. The wide receivers measured are Sammy Watkins, Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin, Marqise Lee, Brandin Cooks, Jordan Matthews, Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham Jr., and Allen Robinson. These receivers are the ones currently projected to be taken within the first 50 picks of which the Jets have two (#18 and #50) so it is likely that one of these players may be a Jet next season. Let’s take a look at the data and see what it means in layman’s terms.

The first measure is where they get the ball on the field. According to Peshek, both Sammy Watkins and Jordan Matthews catch an enormous number of screen passes. 57.4% of Watkins receptions were on screens and Matthews caught 45.8% of his balls in that manner. To put that in perspective that is double the amount of the next receiver on the list. Screens are a significant part of the West Coast offense and the Jets threw more than they have in the recent past last year but they still didn’t have a player that was a consistent threat to take it for a touchdown. On the other hand the Jets also need players who are threats in the intermediate and deep passing game. Odell Beckham Jr. caught 62% of his passes 11 yards from the line of scrimmage or deeper, Mike Evans and Kelvin Benjamin both had over 25% of their catches over 20 yards from the line of scrimmage with Benjamin having a total of 50% from 11 yards or deeper. These are the passes that Geno Smith excels at so having players that can win the battles and get open in those areas is key.

Secondly yards after the catch is important as well because the ability to turn a bad play into something and a good play into a game changing play are sometimes the difference between winning and losing. The leader in this category, not surprisingly, is Sammy Watkins at 8.48 yards. However Watkins only averages catching the ball four yards from the line of scrimmage so his number isn’t as impressive as Mike Evans who catches it on average 14 yards from the line of scrimmage while still averaging 7.63 yards after the catch. Jordan Matthews was second at 7.8 yards after the catch, behind him was Allen Robinson at 7.56 with Marquise Lee rounding out the players over 7 yards after the catch with 7.05. The most fascinating statistic that Peshek shares is that 83% of Odell Beckham Jr.’s receptions went for 1st downs which is a testament to his big play ability and route running.

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Topics: 2014 Nfl Draft, Mike Evans, New York Jets, Sammy Watkins

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  • Paul Newbold

    Interesting read. Makes me believe the Jets are likely to wait to the second round to choose a receiver. I’m thinking TE (Ebron) in the first, WR in the second (Evans), OLB Jeremiah Attaochu in the third, CB Stanley Jean Baptiste in the third…. as far as I’ve gotten in my amateur draft. What do you think Craig? LOL

  • Indigo Choco

    While Jordan Matthews does have a high drop percentage, it is only because of how much he was passed to (especially harder since he was always doubleteamed).

  • Vincent Hall

    Great read. I love reading stuff with actual facts behind it. My favorite receiver in this draft is Jordan Matthews. Not just because he’s related to Jerry Rice. He was the only guy on the team and still put up great numbers. Not to mention the work ethic that I’ve heard multiple times. The way to go is tight end in the 1st and receiver in the 2nd which leaves Beckham, and hopefully Matthews. Time will tell. Because of your blog I wouldn’t be as disappointed in Beckham.

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