The NY Jets might very well be playing a dangerous game. Despite reports on Sunday indicating that Derek Carr preferred to sign with the Jets, the four-time Pro Bowler has reportedly agreed to terms to join the New Orleans Saints.
Carr's decision comes after weeks of waiting to see how the quarterback market would develop, namely what decision Aaron Rodgers would make.
Perhaps Carr's signing is an indication that he believes a Rodgers trade is imminent. Perhaps Carr was simply tired of waiting around and he preferred to sign with a team who actually wanted him.
Whatever the case, Carr is no longer an option for the Jets. One of the Jets' two preferred targets, and the only one guaranteed to be available, is off the table. What now?
There's no reason for Jets fans to be in full-on panic mode — at least not yet. If the Jets manage to trade for Rodgers, or perhaps another star QB, Carr signing elsewhere won't be viewed as a disaster.
Regardless, the Jets are playing a dangerous game here. Carr was the best combination of a high floor and a high upside. He's a top 12-16 quarterback who was guaranteed to be available. The same can't be said for any of the other three options on this list.
So what should the Jets do at the quarterback position now that Carr is no longer an option? Let's take a look at the three most likely outcomes for the Jets, starting with a lackluster fallback plan.
3. The NY Jets can sign Jimmy Garoppolo
Jimmy Garoppolo has been connected to Jets rumors dating back to last year at this point, although he's been firmly in the "fallback option" category for most of the offseason.
Garoppolo made more sense for the Jets with Mike LaFleur as offensive coordinator, given his familiarity with that offense. But if disaster strikes and the Jets miss out on their preferred options, they might not have a choice.
Garoppolo is the only quarterback on this list guaranteed to be available. The former San Francisco 49ers quarterback is set to be a free agent this offseason after another injury-riddled season out west.
Garoppolo has now missed considerable time due to injury in three of the last five seasons and has statistically never been anything more than a league-average quarterback in the most QB-friendly scheme in the NFL.
There are legitimate reasons to be concerned with the Jets relying on Garoppolo as their starter in 2023. That said, he's probably the most appealing contingency plan remaining at this point.
Garoppolo is a starting-caliber quarterback who, if healthy, could absolutely help lead the Jets to the playoffs in 2023. It might make sense to pair Garoppolo with a developmental quarterback in the draft, perhaps someone like Tennessee's Hendon Hooker.
Ending up with Garoppolo would be a failure, given the other options the Jets had to upgrade this offseason, but it wouldn't be an unmitigated disaster. This is the disappointing fallback scenario.
2. The NY Jets can trade for Lamar Jackson
If the Jets do miss out on both Derek Carr and Aaron Rodgers, there's seemingly only one way to land the high-upside quarterback they've been searching for. They would need to trade for Lamar Jackson.
I'd expect the Jets to pivot pretty significantly to Jackson if Rodgers decides to stay in Green Bay or retire. It's not often a 26-year-old franchise quarterback becomes available. That said, Jackson has his own set of red flags.
Jackson has also dealt with injury concerns and is looking for Deshaun Watson-like, market-changing money. That's not even considering the draft capital it would require to trade for him.
Still, this is Lamar Jackson we're talking about. He's a former MVP who, when healthy, is one of the most dynamic, electric quarterbacks in the entire NFL. He'd be the best QB the Jets have had since Joe Namath, and it wouldn't be particularly close.
The Jets haven't exactly gone all-in on the Jackson market, but that could change if Rodgers is out of the picture. That's especially true if the Baltimore Ravens use the non-exclusive franchise tag on their star quarterback.
The Ravens might not want to trade Jackson within the AFC, but that wouldn't matter if they use the non-exclusive tag, which allows Jackson to negotiate with other teams at the cost of what would be two first-round picks if the Ravens don't match.
There's a realistic scenario that the Jets would be able to trade for Jackson, and it's a scenario they should absolutely explore if they miss out on Rodgers. This is the exciting and expensive scenario.
1. The NY Jets can trade for Aaron Rodgers
This is the obvious option. The Jets have eyed Aaron Rodgers as their top quarterback target all offseason, so much so that it cost them an opportunity to sign Derek Carr.
The Jets continue to wait on Rodgers to make a decision following his return from his darkness retreat over a week ago. A decision from Rodgers is imminent, but there's still no guarantee that he's made available.
While a return to Green Bay feels unlikely, given recent reports, it can't be ruled out. Rodgers could also still decide that he wants to retire, leaving the Jets without their preferred choice.
Joe Douglas and the Jets are playing a dangerous game with Rodgers. They've decided to put all their eggs in his basket. They've identified him as their guy and are willing to wait as long as possible to ensure they land him.
Ultimately, they're still at Rodgers' mercy, however. Rodgers has the ability to either make the Jets look like geniuses or make them the current laughingstock of the NFL offseason. There's really no in-between, at least in the short term.
Carr signing with the Saints might also increase Rodgers' trade value, which was reported to be diminishing by the day. NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah even reported this weekend that he didn't expect Rodgers to be traded for a first-round pick.
It's unclear whether that has changed or not. The Packers now have a bit more leverage in the situation.
It's been Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, or bust for the Jets for the majority of the offseason. With Carr no longer an option, Rodgers is the only one left. The Jets better hope Rodgers is willing to come to Florham Park.

