9 way-too-early fantasy football options for the NY Jets in 2023

It's only May, but as you may have already seen, I love talking about things way too early. This time, let's talk about something I'm quite familiar with, fantasy football, and determine which NY Jets are most likely to be relevant options for this upcoming 2023 season.

Before last year, the Jets were probably the worst NFL team in terms of having reliable fantasy options, but suddenly a couple of rookies and a stout defense changed that last year.

We then saw some Mike White magic, and a couple of replacements become waiver-wire steals of the year (looking at you Zonovan Knight), so the Jets are back in fantasy discussions!

Adding Aaron Rodgers to the team is the equivalent of pouring a full can of gasoline on a small fire, so it is safe to assume that multiple Jets will be key fantasy players this season.

I have listed nine players in order from least likely to most likely to make an impact on your team each and every week of the upcoming fantasy football season.

Furthermore, I've broken down the nine players into three tiers based on my overall confidence in their reliability. It's important to note that the way I play fantasy, a consistent 15 points every week is more valuable than 0 points one week and 30 the next, so that is the main factor I used in determining the tiers.

Let's get started!

Tier 3: These NY Jets will have more poor weeks than great ones

9. Corey Davis, WR

Just about everyone (including myself) had Corey Davis pegged as a cap casualty who had no chance of being on the team by the time Aaron Rodgers got there. Whether getting outright cut or being part of the trade, we all thought he was a goner — but here he is.

Davis' Jets career has been a perfect example of what I mean about consistency; he gets zero points one week and 30 the next instead of the constant 15.

He scored all four of his 2021 touchdowns in three games, scoring two (with 97 yards) against Carolina in the opener and a crazy touchdown play (with 111 yards) against his former team, the Tennessee Titans, in Week 4.

For the other seven games he played that year, he only had one game with more than 50 yards and a different game where he had that fourth touchdown.

This past season, he was worse with this concept, as he played more games but had fewer touchdowns. Davis had 83 yards with a touchdown in Week 2 and 74 yards with a touchdown in Week 4. In the 11 other games played, he had zero touchdowns and only two games with more than 55 yards.

So maybe start Davis in Week 4 this year to make sure you benefit from one of his few touchdowns? With Allen Lazard in the mix, Garrett Wilson's ascension, and Rodgers throwing the football, it's easy to imagine life being much easier for Davis this year.

It's possible that he is the 'WR3' so that reduced attention could open up things for the guy who had 984 yards and five touchdowns in a season before becoming a Jet.

He's guaranteed to disappoint more often than not, but there is reason to believe there will be more than just two great games from him this season.

And if you're thinking he will keep his Week 4 touchdown streak alive, the Jets are playing the Kansas City Chiefs, so it will most likely be a shootout. I'm with you on that one.

8. Michael Carter (or whoever you expect to be RB2)

This is the first of two slots on this list where it's more designated to a position than a player, since again, it's way too early to know exactly how the roster will shake up between now and Week 1. As we all know, Breece Hall is recovering from his 2022 ACL tear, but it seems as though he may be a full go for Week 1 this year.

Still, I'd imagine they would ease him back in there by having him split time with another back. Last year, it was Michael Carter, and he is the most experienced of this very young group, so he's my early pick to start Week 1 as RB2 on the depth chart.

If we get to September and it's Zonovan Knight or Israel Abanikanda instead, please put them in this spot on the list instead. Whoever it is will have plenty of opportunities for carries and catches with Aaron Rodgers under center.

Rodgers' running backs last year amassed 116 targets last year so it's safe to assume the Jets' backfield will be very active in the passing games as well.

All four running backs mentioned in this section are more than capable of holding their own in the passing game, so as long as they are on the field, they will be used, and in a PPR league, they could be a sneaky-good flex until they trust Hall full time.

It's also possible they never give Hall that type of workload again since he already has so much mileage on him. He was the most used running back in college football for multiple years before coming to the league and seemed to break down as soon as the Jets got comfortable resuming that workload.

If they plan to have him for years to come, they might permanently keep him in a timeshare, which would mean glorious things for whoever wins this RB2 spot.

7. NY Jets defense/special teams

This might seem too low for a unit that was universally praised and considered a top defense in the NFL, but in terms of fantasy, the Jets' defense had very little value down the stretch last year.

Holding all QBs to under 300 passing yards is an incredible feat, and holding all teams to 30 points or less is arguably even more impressive, but the key stats in fantasy are takeaways and defensive touchdowns.

The Jets only had two takeaways in the last six games of the fantasy football season and only had one defensive touchdown all season. They certainly get after the quarterback (Will McDonald should help make this even better), so in the games where they rack up the sacks, they will do well, but it just doesn't look like they are a turnover or touchdown juggernaut.

Combine that with the fact that they have one of the hardest schedules in the league, and it compounds this issue. They were able to beat up Skylar Thompson, Brett Rypien, and Mitchell Trubisky, but this year, they step up to face the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert.

With a full season of tape for opposing teams to dissect the Jets' defense and a sizable uptick in the quality of opponents expected to face, it's actually very reasonable to expect a regression from the defense this year.

Still, they are a stacked unit in all the right places, so if they stay as healthy as they did last year, they are guaranteed to give you some good fantasy weeks.

Tier 2: These NY Jets will have several good games, multiple stinkers

6. Tyler Conklin (or whoever you expect to be TE1)

The last time Aaron Rodgers and Nathaniel Hackett collaborated with a tight end that played all season, that player was tied for fifth for most touchdowns in the entire NFL (11). That player, Robert Tonyan, is not a special talent by any means, but he was the beneficiary of being in the right place at the right time.

Now with Rodgers and Hackett back together and both of them on a mission to prove that last year was an outlier, the Jets' TE1 position seems to be the right place to be again.

Based on usage last year, it looks like Tyler Conklin might be that guy, but toward the end of the season, C.J. Uzomah was getting more playing time and proceeded to have zero drops all season, as well as a pair of touchdowns.

With Allen Lazard continuing to develop, the need for that red zone "jump ball target" isn't as pressing at tight end as it usually is, but Rodgers can definitely keep opposing defenses on their toes by having multiple jump ball options.

That was exactly the case in Green Bay, as both Lazard and Tonyan were 6-foot-5 targets who could out-muscle defensive backs and still go up and get it over linebackers.

Uzomah stands at 6-foot-5 compared to Conklin at 6-foot-3, but Conklin seems to have an edge in the speed and agility department.

Whichever of these two gets the job will be consistently relied on to keep drives alive on third down and finish drives in the end zone, so it's certainly worth monitoring this position battle in training camp.

5. Allen Lazard, WR

It's fitting that I have both "jump ball targets" back to back because, to me, their value is extremely similar also tied to one another. If I'm a betting man, I'm thinking Rodgers will trust the guy who's been his teammate for years over any tight end that wins the job.

If that's the case, then it's Allen Lazard who is much more likely to find himself among the league touchdown leaders this year like Tonyan was in 2020.

Given that I think Rodgers will have over 30 touchdowns, it's very possible that both Lazard and TE1 will have nice fantasy seasons. One will have 10-ish touchdowns on the season and the other will have five-ish touchdowns on the season.

Even if Lazard ends up being the one with five-ish, I'm more confident in his fantasy relevance because his yardage is almost a lock to be higher than TE1's yardage.

His receptions and yardage have steadily increased each year since 2020, so I expect them to continue to increase, meaning that he'd be on pace for 60+ catches and 800+ yards this year.

In a half-point PPR league, 60 catches for 800 yards and five touchdowns is good for 140 points, a little under 9.0 points per game in a 16-week fantasy season. If he's the one who has 10-ish touchdowns instead of TE1, then that number jumps up to 170 points which is 10.6 points per game.

That's pretty solid for a receiver who will almost certainly get drafted in double-digit rounds this year.

4. Greg Zuerlein, K

It's no secret that the best offensive teams are the safest bets to produce fantasy-relevant kickers. A quick glance at the top 10 of both lists will show you quite a few matches from the Buffalo Bills (Tyler Bass), Dallas Cowboys (Brett Maher), and Seattle Seahawks (Jason Myers) among others.

Aaron Rodgers is a Jet, and expectations are sky high — it's possible (dare I say likely) that he breaks the Jets' all-time passing touchdown record with 32+ touchdowns this year. Even if the team isn't so lucky in the red zone area, just getting to the red zone would be huge for Greg Zuerlein's fantasy value because his field goal range is far beyond just the red zone.

In Rodgers and Hackett's last two years together (2020-2021), they finished fifth and sixth in the league in red zone scoring attempts per game.

Combine that with the fact that Rodgers has thrown over 4,000 yards in four of the last five years, and we'd have a very strong likelihood that this year's Jets will be moving the chains fairly consistently all year.

Zuerlein was absolutely perfect on all of his field goal attempts within 40 yards, but he was forced to kick more 50+ yard attempts last year than every year of his career since his rookie season. Still, he made more of those kicks than his last two years combined so safe to say he's a reliable kicker — over 80 percent conversion rate.

If we see that uptick in the Jets' red zone appearances and ability to march down the field, there's absolutely no reason to doubt Zuerlein becoming a fantasy-relevant asset.

The only thing stopping him from entering the next tier is the fact that there will surely be games where Rodgers is better at finishing drives than others. For those great finishing games, Zuerlein may end up with only 3-5 points.

Tier 3: Guaranteed must-starts that will help you win it all

3. Aaron Rodgers, QB

Aaron Rodgers is here for obvious reasons, but what might not be as obvious is that, even if he plays at his highest possible level, it may not be enough to surpass (from a fantasy standpoint) the likes of Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, or Jalen Hurts if they are playing at theirs.

The league has changed — QBs now run the football. Rodgers was always a great runner and someone that needed to be accounted for, but last year was his first season without 100+ rushing yards since 2007. He had one rushing touchdown last year compared to three apiece the two years prior.

At 39 years old, it's natural to fine-tune your game to your longevity, and it appears that's what Rodgers has done by opting to rush less recently.

As a result, as a fantasy option, I definitely wouldn't reach for him as you may reach for the other three names I listed in this section, but if he falls to you, you'll know you have a reliable option at QB that you can win a championship with.

2. Garrett Wilson, WR

The further we get through this list, the less I have to explain. Garrett Wilson was very fantasy-relevant last season when he accrued 83 catches for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns with the worst quarterback situation in the entire NFL.

Even if Rodgers is washed up (not likely), it would still be a major improvement from what Wilson endured while learning about the league as a whole firsthand as a rookie. I think it's very safe to assume he will surpass all three of those numbers (83-1,103-4) and emerge as one of the league's best wide receivers this year.

His impressive vertical leap and elite shiftiness might also earn him a few red zone jump balls for touchdowns, but I'm expecting most of his work to be done getting yardage between the 20s.

Wilson should be the main factor in most drives and explode for some big plays down the field fairly routinely to keep moving chains and putting pressure on opposing defenses.

It might seem crazy to you that he's not number one but please, hear my reasoning!

1. Breece Hall, RB

I went into great detail earlier this offseason about the historic pace Breece Hall was on at the time of his devasting injury last season. To sum up that piece, he had 124 scrimmage yards per game in the 3.5 games he played as a full-time starter — that's 12.4 fantasy points per game just by yardage.

When you factor in catches (PPR, half PPR) and touchdowns, then you can see how easily he could creep into a 20+ points-per-game type of player. It's not uncommon to see elite running backs come back from a devastating injury and put the league back on notice (see: Derrick Henry).

For guys like Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley, they actually overcame several injuries before returning to their 20+ points per game form this past season.

If Hall is to follow in their footsteps and continue to get better as any 22-year-old player should, then it's arguable that he could finish as the No. 1 player in all of fantasy. That is his ceiling — the absolute top of the fantasy league

Worst-case scenario (assuming he stays healthy) is that he's stuck in a timeshare with the RB2, as I outlined earlier in this list, so he never gets fully unleashed and remains busy in the red zone.

That'd still be good for 10 points per game without a touchdown and then 16 or 22 if he were to get one or two scores that week.

His floor may be lower than Garrett Wilson's by a little, but his ceiling is so high that if you're determined to draft a Jet this year, your hunt should truly start with Breece Hall.