5 way too early stat predictions for the NY Jets in 2023

There are so many reasons to be excited about the 2023 NY Jets season and I've been having trouble thinking about anything other than Aaron Rodger's debut in Gotham Green this fall. If you are in the same boat, please join me on this voyage into the future, and let's find out if you see things hypothetically in the same way I do.

Now, of course, it's May so these predictions are far-fetched in nature - but they will be backed up by logic! We'll see what happens throughout training camp and preseason and determine which of these need to be tweaked but at this very second these are my predictions regarding five random stats of five random NY Jet players. Bon Voyage!

5. Allen Lazard will lead the NY Jets in rec TDs in 2023

Garrett Wilson is quite clearly WR1 in New York and poised for quite a breakout in 2023 with Rodgers at the helm, but how much will he improve on the four touchdowns he scored in 2022? In the red zone, he was able to score once against the Browns but didn't have much success running fade routes in the end zone when the Jets needed a score.

I expect his yardage (which was already spectacular) to skyrocket and I do absolutely expect him to score more touchdowns this season but I'm hesitant to say 10+ touchdowns.

Allen Lazard has scored 14 touchdowns over the last two seasons as his yardage has continued to climb each of the last three seasons. Coming from Green Bay, he obviously has an established rapport with Rodgers and will most likely be leaned on by both Rodgers and the coaching staff to help install the system for his new teammates.

In addition to his built-in chemistry and experience in the system, Lazard happens to be five inches taller and 30 pounds heavier than Garrett - making him a much better option in the red zone for those fades.

He can catch jump balls, muscle defensive backs out of position for contested catches, and already has his timing in sync with Rodgers. I'm very comfortable predicting him to get the first 10+ touchdown season of his career this year.

4. D.J. Reed will set a new career-high for INTs in a season

This is a very mild prediction disguised as a hot take because career highs are often big deals. However, if you take a second on Google, you'd see that Reed has yet to have three interceptions in a season so far.

D.J. Reed is among the most overlooked players on the entire roster despite a spectacular showing last year. There were times (and full games) where he outplayed Sauce and was the primary defender on elite receivers like Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, and Justin Jefferson.

His lone interception of 2022 was the prettiest Jet interception of the year and was a nice display of his phenomenal athleticism. Over the course of this offseason, the legend and aura of Sauce have only grown exponentially, and more teams will throw away from him this season.

The two big beneficiaries (or sufferers depending on how you look at it) are D.J. Reed and Michael Carter II, who will most likely get targeted a bunch. Given this increase in attention, Reed's technical prowess and athletic acumen will open up chances for more spectacular catches like the one above. I won't predict an exact number, but I will say he will get more than two picks this season.

3. Israel Abanikanda will finish second on the NY Jets in rushing yards

This is a prediction you may have heard already but I'm putting it in writing. I'm a big fan of Michael Carter and think he was unfairly scrutinized by Jets fans as he adjusted to losing his starting gig, getting hurt, and working behind an injury-ravaged offensive line that was unable to block for him.

Zonovan Knight had much more success behind the same line, but they are two different backs with different skill sets. Still, I wonder if Knight or Carter have the burst to add that dynamic element the Jets' offense will need from the backfield when Breece is resting.

Enter Israel Abanikanda, the electric running back that is bigger, stronger, and faster than the other backup running backs. It's possible he starts the year as RB3 or RB4 but it will only take one or two home runs before he earns his way into the RB2 role.

He may not even be second on the team in carries, but considering the fact that he is a legitimate threat to take any carry 80 yards to the house, he probably won't need to be second on the team in carries. He'll just need to be healthy.

2. Carl Lawson will set a new career-high for sacks

I'm not saying he's about to revive the New York Sack Exchange but it will be a great year for Lawson. I've mentioned time and time again how hard he's worked coming back from his Achilles injury (and setback) and how Coach Robert Saleh has always spoken so highly of his work ethic.

Saleh also implied that Lawson wasn't close to 100% last year and that this would be better, so the fact that they are opting to keep him instead of cutting him and saving $15.4 million speaks volumes to his importance to the defensive line rotation.

He has yet to surpass the 8.5 sacks he accumulated in his rookie season but with all of the attention going to All-Pro Quinnen Williams (assuming he plays this year) there will be opportunities for the Jets' explosive edge rushers to get to the quarterback.

Lawson has always been great at getting pressures but the sack either eludes him or ends up going to someone else who reaps the benefit of Lawson forcing a QB scramble. This time around, I think it will be Quinnen who is forcing the QB to scramble into Lawson's waiting arms. At least nine times.

1. Aaron Rodgers will break the NY Jets all-time passing record for TDs in a season

This is the greatest example of a 'mild prediction disguised as a hot take' that I could possibly come up with. There are a few franchises whose passing TD records are in the 40s, others that even go into the 50s, but the lowly Jets' record is 31 in a season. Only the Browns (30) and the Bears (29) have lower passing records.

31 is pretty doable - in the last three seasons 14 different QBs through for 30+ touchdowns in at least one of those seasons while six of those QBs threw for 30+ touchdowns in two or more of the last three seasons.

Aaron Rodgers is of course one of those six QBs, as he set the Packers' all-time touchdown pass record at 48 in 2020 a mere three years ago. He followed that up with 37 in 2021 and then 26 last season in a year where he lost his offensive coordinator and number one receiver in the same offseason.

This year, reunited with his offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and given a new bonafide WR1 in Garrett Wilson, there is absolutely no reason to doubt that he can't climb above 31 this season. The Jets did a fantastic job building depth on the offensive line and luckily Rodgers' weapons aren't limited to just Wilson and Lazard.

Corey Davis, Tyler Conklin, Mecole Hardman, and even a few running backs should be receiving touchdowns throughout the year so I'm fairly confident this won't have to be tweaked when I redo this article in September - start working on your touchdown dances!