What could the NY Jets offer for Deebo Samuel? Is he worth it?

The Deebo Samuel trade rumors are dominating pre-draft headlines. Among the most-mentioned and popular destinations for the All-Pro receiver is the NY Jets.

The Jets made their desire to add a star receiver clear in their attempt to trade for Tyreek Hill last month. With a need at receiver and in possession of valuable draft capital, it makes sense that the Jets would also be interested in trading for Samuel. 

However, let’s pump the breaks.

Yes, Samuel is indeed an electric talent and one of the top weapons in the NFL. But there will be competition for his services if he is made available.  

He won’t come cheap either. Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams’ new deals ($30 million and $28.25 million AAVs, respectively) have reset the wide receiver market. So Samuel will likely seek a deal at or near that price range.

The Jets have more than enough draft capital to make a splash move, but they shouldn’t part with their assets recklessly.

What could the NY Jets offer for Deebo Samuel?

San Francisco does not own a first-round selection in the 2022 NFL Draft by virtue of their trade with the Miami Dolphins to take Trey Lance in last year’s draft. If the team chooses to honor Samuel’s trade request, getting back into the first round will be a priority.

The Chiefs and Packers received first-round picks (and more) in the deals that sent Hill and Adams to the Dolphins and Raiders. Let’s look at the trade details below for both Hill and Adams:

According to Draftek’s NFL Trade Value Chart, Green Bay and Kansas City each received roughly 1,150 points worth of draft capital, equivalent to the 13th pick in value. However, San Francisco could seek out a more significant return.

Just 26 years of age, Samuel is younger than Hill (28) and Adams (29). That, and his contract (San Francisco has three years left of control), give the 49ers leverage in negotiation talks.

In control of five picks in the top-100 selections, the Jets are at an advantage. Joe Douglas would undoubtedly love to keep both of his top-10 selections, and it is possible to create an enticing trade package without including either of them. 

On the off chance that San Francisco could deal Samuel for a package that does not include a first-round pick, the Jets' reported offer for Tyreek Hill (picks 35, 38, and 69) is stronger (1,315 points) than the packages Kansas City and Green Bay received for their stars.

If not, the 10th overall selection, with a value of 1,300 points, should (theoretically) get the job done. 

So is the investment worth it for the NY Jets?

Yes, the Jets should absolutely go after Samuel for the right price. They are entering a critical second year for Zach Wilson and must surround him with weapons to help his development.

I can understand why some might hesitate at the prospect of trading for Samuel. Not only would the Jets part with valuable draft capital, but they’d also have to commit over 10 percent of their salary cap to a single player at an oversaturated position.

An argument can be made that the Jets do not need to trade for Samuel. At least two of Drake London, Jameson Williams, and Garrett Wilson will be available for the Jets at the 10th pick.

In addition, those three other top-38 selections could net them four impact players on rookie contracts. Those contracts would give them the financial flexibility to upgrade the roster via trade or free agency.

But can the Jets rely on those players to make an immediate impact? From 2010-to 2017, just 30 percent of first-round picks signed second contracts with their original team. That percentage decreases to under 25 percent for second-round picks.

The draft receives a ton of hype, but the reality is that each draft is a guessing game. Young, inexpensive talent is a requirement for sustainable success, but the Jets must take the risk if presented with an opportunity.

Projection isn’t necessary with Samuel. He is a proven talent who has shown the ability to take over games. Not to mention, his familiarity with the offense and coaching staff is a bonus.

Again, the Jets can stay put and still add impact players to their roster through the draft. However, if the price is right, why not swing for the fences?