NY Jets Fantasy Football: Michael Carter is worth rostering

After a trip to London, this year's bye week is upon us for the NY Jets. That means no football from our favorite team. No cheering. No trembling. No jitters. No suspense. So it's a good time to take a closer look at the Jets' running back committee.

Of the current three-man committee, Ty Johnson is the one who has been with the Jets the longest.  After Johnson was waived by the Detroit Lions last October, the Jets pounced and claimed him.

His rookie season with the Lions produced mixed results with only 273 rushing yards. He also failed to improve on his final year with the Jets. At the end of the season, he had 254 rushing yards. 

Along with Johnson, Tevin Coleman was expected to shape the Jets' backfield this season. Coleman joined the Jets as an unrestricted free agent this offseason.

The veteran running back didn't see much action last season due to an ankle and knee injury so the fresh start in New York seemed perfect for him.

In this year's draft, the Jets secured Michael Carter from North Carolina in the fourth round. In college, Carter totaled over 1,000 rushing yards in each of his final two seasons.

The running back order seemed mostly clear before the season began. Coleman was going to be the lead back, with Johnson and Carter mixing in plenty as well.

Ty Johnson enters season as NY Jets lead back

However, the first week of the regular season showed a completely different picture. Ty Johnson was on the field for 53.8 percent of the snaps and had nine rushing attempts.

In contrast, Tevin Coleman and Michael Carter were on the field for only 26.2 percent and 24.6 percent of the snaps, respectively, and each had only four rushing attempts.

The result was very manageable for all three. None of the running backs scored more than 3.0 fantasy points in PPR formats. 

In the following weeks, Carter's workload increased more and more. From Week 2 on, he always put up double-digit rushing attempts.

This finally led to Michael Carter's first NFL touchdown in Week 4 and the Jets' first rushing touchdown of the season. Only Johnson was able to match those numbers until Week 4. 

Then in the Jets' visit to London in Week 5, it finally became clear that this backfield belonged to Carter. With an opportunity share of 54.17 percent, Carter was able to claim more than half of all rushing attempts and running back targets in that game.

This trend should continue in the coming weeks. 

Michael Carter takes over the NY Jets backfield

Carter thrives on his agility and quick burst. This is also shown by the 17 missed tackles he's forced so far. Carter leads the Jets in that category by a long shot with Johnson following in a distant second place with only five evaded tackles.

Carter has not been heavily involved in the passing game thus far. In every game except Week 1, he has received three targets. Johnson, on the other hand, is getting more involved in the passing game.

In Week 3, for example, Johnson had a target share of 15.2 percent. In Carter's favor as a pass catcher, however, is that he produces 15.0 yards after catch per game — significantly more than any other Jets running back.

Also interesting is a stat that Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight developed: RACR (Receiving Air Yard Conversion Ratio). That measures how many receiving yards a player creates for every air yard thrown at him. It is one of the stickiest receiving efficiency metrics.

Carter has a RACR of 16.00. Johnson, on the other hand, has a RACR of only 0.68 while Coleman has a RACR of -1.70. This RACR puts Michael Carter in the top-12 in the NFL. Christian McCaffrey, for instance, has a RACR of 13.58.

Does Michael Carter have fantasy relevance?

With these numbers, Carter also becomes quite fantasy-relevant. He's scored 8.8 fantasy points per game in PPR formats so far. In Week 2, Carter even landed among the NFL's top 25 running backs.

The next two games — at the New England Patriots and against the Cincinnati Bengals — are also perfect for Carter's stats to continue to build.

In deeper leagues, Carter should therefore definitely be a waiver target. On Yahoo Sports, Carter is rostered in just 53 percent of leagues. So strike while you can.

I would keep my hands off Johson, despite his pretty decent start to the season. The tendencies are clearly pointing downwards. The same goes for Coleman, who doesn't seem to have really arrived in New York yet.

As for Carter, he's worth a flier at this stage of the season.