Grading and analyzing the NY Jets' selection of Jeremy Ruckert

What a draft weekend it was for the NY Jets. The team added three stars on Day 1 with the selections of Sauce Gardner, Garrett Wilson, and Jermaine Johnson II, plus another great player in Breece Hall at pick 38.

Many experts, most notably NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah, had Gardner, Wilson, and Hall as the number one prospects at their respective positions, in addition to ranking Johnson a top-10 prospect overall.

After receiving near-universal praise for his first four selections, general manager Joe Douglas continued to get excellent value with his picks, especially at pick number 101 when he nabbed tight end Jeremy Ruckert.

However, the Ohio State product, who has been heralded as the class’s number one tight end by some, will likely have a very limited role in 2022 and potentially in 2023, too. While he was great value, Ruckert does not fill a significant need as of now and there were other needs to be filled.

With all of that in mind, was the Jeremy Ruckert selection a smart move by Douglas? Further analysis proves favorable for Gang Green.

Breakdown of the Jeremy Ruckert pick for the NY Jets

Before I evaluate the pick, it is important to first analyze Ruckert as a prospect. Over the course of four seasons with OSU, Ruckert played in 26 games and logged 615 yards, much of which come from his 11 starts and 309 yards as a senior.

He caught only three touchdown passes this past season, but the counting stats are just the tip of the iceberg for Ruckert.

In terms of skills, Ruckert may be the best blocker in the class. He has great hands in addition to a powerful 6-foot-5, 250-pound frame that overpowers defenders. To boot, his route running ability is above average for the position. Overall, Ruckert really is a well-rounded player.

It isn’t all roses for Ruckert, though. His lack of production at OSU is cause for concern, especially considering the explosiveness of that 2021 Ohio State offense. Plus, his play is inconsistent, as he sometimes disappears from games.

Overall, though, Ruckert is an excellent value at pick 101. And when you’re basically in the fourth round, value and skill are the most important factors to consider when drafting a player.

Because the hit rate at that point in the draft is so low, it is likely best to just give yourself the best chance at drafting a good player, regardless of position.

Many argue that tight end is not a need, which in some ways it is not. The Jets have two capable starting tight ends on the roster.

However, not only does Ruckert have blocking skills that C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin lack, but he also provides long-term value, being eight and five years younger than the two veterans, respectively.

At this moment in time, the Jets are not in desperate need of a starting tight end. However, that is not the role that Rucker was drafted to fill, nor should it have been.

Players selected around pick 100 should not be slotted to start at their respective position — doing so occurs when the general manager has built the roster poorly. The players to be had there are just not good enough.

Take the 2018 NFL Draft. From picks 85-115, only two true starters have panned out from that span: Mark Andrews and Alex Cappa, who both were selected before Ruckert’s 101 draft slot.

With a hit rate that low, a general manager should look at who has the greatest chance of panning out rather than who fills a need.

Considering that some call Ruckert the best tight end in the class and an early Day-2 talent, selecting him at pick 101 was an excellent choice by Douglas, whether or not he will have a significant role in 2022.

It’s worth noting that neither Cappa nor Andrews started as rookies despite being great players now.

Jeremy Ruckert compares favorably to 49ers' George Kittle

Offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur’s offense back in San Francisco was built around tight end George Kittle. In his four years and 45 starts with LaFleur, Kittle logged over 3,500 yards, an impressive number for a tight end over that span.

Why bring up Kittle? Ruckert shares a number of traits with the former fifth-round pick and will now be paired with the same coordinator Kittle thrived under in San Francisco.

In terms of their Combine measurements, Ruckert measured just one inch taller and three pounds heavier, with similar arms measurements as well. Ruckert’s hands measured much larger than Kittle’s, which should only work out in Ruckert’s favor.

Production-wise, both players failed to produce exceedingly well at Big Ten schools. As a senior at Iowa, Kittle logged 314 yards and four touchdowns in nine games played.

As a senior at Ohio State, Ruckert logged 309 yards and two touchdowns in 11 games played. Both players also failed to produce much at all before their senior years.

Regarding skillset, both players have very similar traits coming out of college. Like Ruckert, Kittle had plus blocking skills in addition to above-average hands and route-running ability, albeit not as refined as Ruckert’s.

Kittle was drafted 146th overall in 2017 while Ruckert was a second/third-round projection, accounting for the skill gap difference coming out of college.

Of course, nobody should expect Ruckert to be the next Kittle, who has dominated the pros during his time with the 49ers. It is an interesting comparison, though, given their near-identical background, size, production, and skillsets coming out of college.

Pair those similarities with the fact that Ruckert will be playing under the same coordinator and the idea of Ruckert following in Kittle’s footsteps is not so farfetched.

Jeremy Ruckert's career projection

If you shouldn’t expect Ruckert to be the next Kittle, then what should be expected of the 21-year-old? Given the bust rate of players selected around Ruckert’s 101 draft slot, an optimistic yet realistic expectation for the former Buckeye would likely be an average to above-average starter in a few seasons.

Even still, Ruckert earning any second contract, even for a TE2 role, would still make the pick a success.

The disparity between the Jets' talent and cap space (the Jets don't have much of either) comes from a lack of depth acquired through the draft, forcing Douglas to overpay veterans to fill depth roles.

Being able to have a backup on a rookie contract or team-friendly deal offers a team the flexibility to acquire star players.

To put some numbers to it, given his skill set and high praise from scouts, I would estimate Ruckert’s odds of success to be the following: 40% chance of being a reliable backup, 30% chance of being an average starter, 15% chance of being an above-average starter or better, and a 15% chance of getting released before the end of his rookie deal.

Although Ruckert has an exciting skillset for a near-fourth-round pick, expectations should be tempered given the low hit rate at that point in the draft.

In fact, the probability of Ruckert not finishing his rookie contract probably exceeds the chance of him being an above-average starter, but it is a difficult evaluation to make so early. 

Overall, this was a slam-dunk pick in a draft that saw Douglas as the clear winner of all GMs across the league. Considering his production, skills, and value at pick 101, I would give the Ruckert selection an A- grade.

Grade: A-