Disappointing with an Asterisk: Corey Davis' first season with the NY Jets

NY Jets fans had high expectations for wide receiver Corey Davis entering this season. The former-Western Michigan star had a relatively disappointing start to his career after going fifth overall in the 2015 NFL Draft to the Tennessee Titans.

The big 6-foot-3 wideout had a bit of a breakout season in 2020, however, posting a career-high 984 yards and five touchdowns in 14 games. His 2020 Pro Football Focus (PFF) score was also an elite 86.9.

This past offseason, Jets general manager Joe Douglas signed Davis to a three-year, $37.5 contract that the Jets could exit after just two seasons for a profit, per OverTheCap.

Davis missed games here and there throughout his first season with the Jets but was eventually ruled out for the season in order to receive core muscle surgery.

With Davis now done for the season, the question arises: how was his first year with the Jets? Depending on who you ask, the answer may vary greatly.

Corey Davis' 2021 season saw both good and bad

Optimistic NY Jets fans would say that Davis had an overall strong season.

His 492 yards and four touchdowns in nine games put him on an 875-yard and seven-touchdown pace in 16 games, which would make him one of the best outside receivers Gang Green has had since Brandon Marshall in 2015.

Also, Pro Football Focus gave Davis a 68.8 score on the season, a respectable grade, albeit much-decreased compared to last year. In addition, Davis flashed great skill against the Titans in Week 4, a game in which the wideout posted over 100 yards and a touchdown.

The more pessimistic fan would say, though, that Davis' first season was a major disappointment for New York. His constant drops and multiple fumbles made him a liability on offense, which when combined with his frequent injuries leads to a disastrous combination for an expensive receiver.

His catch rate of 57.6 percent is relatively low for a possession receiver like Davis and is a 13 percentage point drop-off from last season.

His PFF score is not up to WR1 standards, which only furthers a point that Davis-maligners have made all offseason: was Davis' strong 2020 campaign merely the product of a loaded offense with too many pieces for a defense to keep track of?

Of these two stances, I would actually give more weight to the former, as the anti-Davis arguments leave out crucial factors from this season that Davis could not control.

The NY Jets did not help Corey Davis succeed

First, at the absolute best, Davis saw shaky play at quarterback all season.

Unfortunately for Davis, both games that a Jets quarterback performed objectively well in were two of his missed games, as he was sidelined during Mike White's slaughter of the Bengals and Josh Johnson's strong performance against the Colts.

Zach Wilson's performance at the start of the season was lackluster outside of a few impressive throws against the Titans, and the non-Wilson quarterbacked games outside of these Bengals and Colts matchups were pathetic.

I think this point could also help explain Davis' drops, a problem he has not seen before this season. As we have seen the past few weeks, Wilson throws passes with almost too much zip.

A specific play against the Eagles comes to mind. When throwing a swing pass to Ty Johnson early, Zach Wilson threw a bullet to the running back. The ball hit Johnson's hands and fell to the ground.

Most fans would blame Johnson for this play, and for good reason. But Wilson is also to blame here, too. Yes, the pass was on target. But accuracy is only one component of a "catchable" ball.

When a QB zips a swing pass from just five yards away, the ball's sheer velocity is both unexpected and hard to handle for a pass-catcher. This example is meant to make a critical point that Jets fans miss when evaluating players: "drops" are not always just the fault of the receiver.

Likewise, Davis was likely credited with a "drop" against New England in Week 2 when the ball hit him in the hands and then fell into a defensive back's hands.

However, this ball was very poorly placed by Wilson, in addition to be thrown too hard. The fact that Davis could even get his hands on it was impressive. While Davis is not free of blame here, fans should give him the benefit of the doubt after such a dubious throw.

Next, no other skill position player on this offense was worth paying attention to while Davis was healthy. Before rookies Elijah Moore and Michael Carter hit their strides late in the season while Davis was battling injury, they were both borderline non-factors to start the season.

Keelan Cole, Jamison Crowder, and Denzel Mims were also hardly worth much attention, and Zach Wilson's scrambling ability was not seen this year.

That just leaves Davis on the outside for defenses to gameplan against. While a player should not be absolved merely due to lackluster talent around him, defenses truly had no worry when facing this team outside of Davis.

Also, this is a completely new staff and scheme for Davis. Early struggles may not be expected but are arguably tolerable for a short time. Davis never really got the chance, though, to showcase his ability after adjusting to a new locker room and offense.

One similar situation that I think is worth examining is Allen Robinson's start in Chicago.

Also a possession receiver, Robinson had several strong seasons in Jacksonville before heading to Chicago in 2018. In his first year with the Bears, though, he saw little success relative to his skill.

Robinson started slowly in his first season with Chicago and then battled injuries that kept him below 100 percent all season. Sound familiar?

Well, following this slow first season, Robinson would go on to record over 1,100 yards and seven touchdowns with the Bears in 2019. Jets fans can look to this example with the hope that Davis can rebound from this disappointing season with a Robinson-like comeback in 2022.

Finally, Davis' injuries were unfortunate happenings of this year that should not be given too much weight. Prior to this season, Davis played in 56 of 64 games, averaging just two missed games per season.

The majority of his missed games came in Davis' rookie season, too, as the wideout missed just three games from 2018-2020. The injuries this year are arguably an anomaly.

Conclusion

NY Jets fans should not give up hope on Corey Davis just yet. The receiver produced to a respectable degree during his first season with the team while being hampered by many factors outside of his control.

In fact, I would argue that Davis would have had a statistically stronger season if any of the following statements had been true: the QB play was more consistent, Moore and Carter played well while Davis was healthy, or if Davis had the ability to finish the season.

All three of those points were out of Davis' control this season, however, and set the wide receiver up for failure.

Overall, heading into this season, it would have been disappointing to hear that Davis would post fewer than 500 yards.

However, look for a bounce-back season next year from Davis once he is healthy and acclimated to a new and hopefully improved offense.