Analyzing every route the NY Jets can take in the 2024 NFL Draft

NY Jets general manager Joe Douglas has had a busy and intriguing offseason. Following the disappointing 2023 campaign, the 7-10 Jets had some glaring issues that needed to be addressed before the 2024 NFL Draft in April.

In no particular order, the Jets needed to add a competent backup quarterback, a wide receiver to pair with Garret Wilson, and three new offensive linemen.

The general consensus, by fans and analysts alike, was that Douglas would address some of these needs during free agency, alongside the trade market, and then fill in the remaining gaps with the draft. But Douglas had other plans.

As we sit here at the beginning of April, the Jets now have three new offensive linemen (Morgan Moses, Tyron Smith, and John Simpson), a very capable QB2 in Tyrod Taylor, and WR2 Mike Williams.

At the end of March, Douglas had one more trick up his sleeve, bringing in pass rusher Haason Reddick via a trade with the Philadelphia Eagles, to replace Bryce Huff who was lost to the Eagles in free agency. The roster rebuild is officially complete weeks before the draft, allowing the Jets to have plenty of options entering the 2024 draft.

The NY Jets have plenty of options entering the 2024 NFL Draft

The Jets currently hold the number 10 overall pick. Some of the most repeated names from various mock drafts are OT Taliese Fuaga, OT Joe Alt, TE Brock Bowers, and surprisingly WR Marvin Harrison Jr.

Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network and Tom Fornelli of CBS Sports both have mock drafts that suggest the Jets trade up with the Los Angeles Chargers to pick No. 5 to take Harrison.

The Jets would most likely be leveraging future draft picks in 2025 and even 2026 in this hypothetical trade. This, along with the various one-year deals and expiring contracts, would risk the Jets' future roster-building assets for just this next year. This roster already has Super Bowl talent in the starting positions but is missing key positional depth.

The NY Jets are more likely to trade down in the draft

Rather than trading up, it is more likely that the Jets key in on trading down. Joe Douglas and company do not own a 2024 second-round pick, which was given up in the trade for Aaron Rodgers. The Jets top three picks are 10th, 72nd, and 111th overall.

That means the Jets will wait a whopping 62 picks between their first and second selections. By trading down in the first round, the Jets can remain in the top 20, and gain an early to mid-round second-round pick.

If a quarterback is to fall and the Jets find themselves a trading partner, then they could potentially own two picks in the top 50. The reason this is so significant is that they could then address two positions rather than only one.

The Jets could exit the draft with both an offensive tackle and a pass catcher, adding tremendously to the depth behind their starters.

Maximizing value with the 10th overall pick will be key for the NY Jets

Now this is where it can get tricky for the Jets. Looking at the top 14 offensive tackles rated by CBS Sports entering 2022 and 2023, the average draft position (ADP) was 38th overall, which equates to an early second-round pick.

Looking at only those offensive tackles taken in the first round, the ADP becomes 11th overall. If the Jets are keen on adding a top-tier offensive tackle, then this metric shows they are better off staying put at 10 overall, and selecting a tackle that has the potential to become a top-15 player at that position.

When analyzing the wide receiver position, the top 20 wide receivers in receiving yards for the 2023 season have an ADP of 57th overall, and a median draft position of 43rd overall.

When removing later-round outliers such as Tyreek Hill, Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Stefon Diggs, the ADP rises to 34th overall. This points to the desire of the Jets to obtain a second-round pick, most likely by trading down.

Will the Jets draft Brock Bowers at 10th overall?

Perhaps the fan-favorite option is to stay put and draft tight end Brock Bowers out of Georgia. Browers sits on Mel Kiper’s big board as number seven, meaning Kiper has him rated as the seventh-best player in the draft, regardless of position. He would give the Jets yet another offensive weapon at Aaron Rodgers' disposal.

However, Douglas and company might be wary about selecting Bowers at 10th overall. Rarely do tight ends taken so high in the draft end up being worth that type of draft capital.

Of the top eight tight ends in receiving yards in 2023, only three were taken in the first round. That would be Evan Engram, T.J. Hockenson, and David Njoku.

The two best tight ends were taken in the third round and beyond; Travis Kelce was taken 63rd overall in 2013 and George Kittle was taken 146th overall in 2017. The ADP for these top eight TEs is 61st overall, which falls in the late second round.

The NY Jets' approach to the 2024 NFL Draft depends on how the board plays out

So where does Douglas take the Jets in the 2024 NFL Draft? Does he trade up, does he trade down, or does he stay put? The answers to these questions will be highly dependent on how the draft board plays out.

If a quarterback falls to the Jets at 10, some teams may be motivated to trade up for a future franchise playcaller. If not, the Jets will most likely have their choice of a top offensive tackle, wide receiver, or tight end.

For the first time in Douglas’ tenure, the Jets will be entering the draft analyzing top talent rather than trying to fill starting positional needs on the roster.

Not only will April 25th give Jets fans a new player to root for, but it will also show them what direction the team will be going in 2024 and beyond.