Analyzing 6 scenarios the NY Jets could explore with the No. 4 pick

It's been 12 years since the NY Jets have made the playoffs, the longest current drought in the NFL. And a significant reason for that is that the Jets, over the last decade-plus, have failed to draft superstar players, particularly at the top of the first round. 

In an attempt to finally land a ready-made superstar player using their draft capital and cap space, Jets general manager Joe Douglas went all in trying to acquire wide receiver Tyreek Hill from the Chiefs.

Unfortunately, Hill chose the Miami sun and no state income taxes instead of stardom in New York. Reports suggested that New York would've parted ways with high draft capital this year to get a deal done, but it wasn't meant to be.

As a result, the Jets are still in the hunt, looking to add difference-makers to their roster, and it will have to come through the draft, an area where the Jets have failed over the years to land cornerstone players.

In the last 10 Jets drafts, since 2012, the team has selected the following players in the first round: Quinton Coples, Dee Milliner, Sheldon Richardson, Calvin Pryor, Leonard Williams, Darron Lee, Jamal Adams, Sam Darnold, Quinnen Williams, Mekhi Becton, Zach Wilson, and Alijah Vera-Tucker.

The jury is still out on some of the latter names, but even the players selected who did produce — like Leonard Williams, and Jamal Adams — didn't live up to the hype or stand the test of time in green and white.

If you are looking for an answer as to why the Jets haven't been a contender for years, look no further than their misses in the draft, especially with who they have selected in the top-10.

When you get up to the plate picking in the top tier of the draft, you have to hit home runs. The Jets have either struck out or have barely gotten on base, only to not score in the long run. 

It's a case of cause and effect. The Jets lack difference-making players on their roster, and the top of the draft is where you can obtain those types of players. Hence the reason why the team has not been a contender for a long time.

In the NFL, you don't consistently win unless you have superstars. Every NFL team has good players on it, but the difference between contending and non-contending teams is the number of elite players you have on your roster.

Just look at the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals. Both teams have top-shelf players at premier positions. It goes beyond the QB position. 

The Rams have superstars like Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp, and Jalen Ramsey. Players who are the best of the best at their respective positions.

The Bengals rode to the brink of football heaven last season, thanks to elite difference-makers like Ja'Marr Chase and Trey Hendrickson. The Jets do not have players like that on their roster. 

Excluding the uncertainty attached to the quarterback position with Zach Wilson, the two biggest needs on the Jets are an impact pass rusher on defense and a centerpiece player in their passing attack.

The Jets haven't addressed those two significant problem spots in free agency, but in the draft, they could and arguably should. 

Despite the Jets' most significant needs being a pass rusher or pass receiver, they are not the only areas that the team could address at the top of the draft in late April.

No matter which way the Jets start the first round, they have to walk away with impact franchise players. With that in mind, let's entertain some of the options and scenarios the Jets will be facing with their first pick in the draft, No. 4 overall.

After all, what they do when they first go on the clock could determine what follows at 10 and beyond.

What will the NY Jets do when they are on the clock at pick No. 4?

Mock draft season is in full effect and will pick up even more steam now that the first wave of free agency has passed, but it's not only the pundits and fans going through mock drafts to try and predict what will transpire at the top of the NFL Draft.

NFL teams are going through the same exercise right now. Internally, every NFL franchise does opposition scouting during the draft process. They attempt to pinpoint what other teams will do around them. It's a pivotal part of the process.

With a month to go until the draft, the consensus first pick for Jacksonville at one is Michigan pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson, especially since the Jaguars have franchised left tackle Cam Robinson for the second year in a row.

The feeling is that Jacksonville is locked in on pairing Hutchinson with Josh Allen as their pass-rushing duo in Duval. The selection makes a ton of sense for the Jaguars, and Hutchinson is probably the safest bet in the draft. He was a superstar at the collegiate level, and that's the expectation level for him in the NFL.

With Jacksonville seemingly decided on who they will select, that brings us to Detroit at two and Houston at three, assuming both teams stay at their respective spots, which is not a lock. Earmarking who they will draft has become quite challenging, especially because both rebuilding teams could go in different directions.

It's also difficult to project what they will do because the next two top-ranked players on most experts' boards are offensive linemen Ikem Ekwonu and Evan Neal — two players who are not precisely clear-cut fits for either team.

Although both the Lions and Texans have several glaring holes, they do, however, have elite left tackles in Penei Sewell and Laremy Tunsil. The likelihood of either team prioritizing a right tackle this high in the draft doesn't seem realistic, especially since Houston recently restructured Tunsil's contract.

It's also worth noting that Houston, like Detroit,  now has two first-round picks, thanks to the recent blockbuster Deshaun Watson trade. So even if the offensive line spot is on their respective radars, they could wait until later in the draft to address that area.

Presuming that Detroit and Houston pass on selecting an offensive lineman at two and three and opt to select the top-ranked defensive players remaining on their board, that could leave the Jets with an interesting conundrum at pick four.

Will the NY Jets draft Evan Neal or Ikem Ekwonu at 4?

On the surface, for some, this scenario could be the least desirable of all the Jets' options at the top of the draft simply because the team has significant draft capital and cap room invested at both tackle and guard.

The Jets drafting Ikem Ekwonu or Evan Neal is an indication that the franchise envisions either player as the team's long-term left tackle for the next 5-10 years.

You don't select Neal or Ekwonu at this spot unless you believe that either will be stalwarts at the most crucial position on the offensive line immediately. You also don't commit a top-five pick and significant cap space to tweener guards or right tackle prospects. 

The drafting of Ekwonu or Neal suggests that George Fant and or Mekhi Becton's days are numbered in a Jets uniform. Fant, one of Joe Douglas' best free-agent signings since his tenure began, is entering the last year of his contract, and he is on the hook currently at $10 million.

Fant would be a very expensive swing lineman for New York, mainly because he was the Jets' best offensive lineman a year ago. It's not likely that he returns in 2023 if the Jets draft Neal or Ekwonu at four.

The selection of an offensive lineman by the Jets at four could also spell the end of Mekhi Becton. Depending on what the Jets' long-term plans are with Fant, it would certainly, at the bare minimum, end Becton's days as the team's long-term answer at left tackle.

And quite frankly, drafting someone else to play the role Becton was supposed to fill would be an indictment on Joe Douglas and his choice of the former Louisville standout only two years ago.

There's no dancing around the issue — Joe Douglas' 2020 draft has been a disappointment thus far, and the lack of positive returns from that class is one of the reasons the team is still lagging in the rebuilding phase.

Players like Denzel Mims, Ashtyn Davis, Jabari Zuniga, La'Mical Perine, and former Jets like QB James Morgan look like wasted picks. Could Becton be thrown into that forgetful pile? 

After all, the drafting of Becton hurts even more when you consider that similar players from his draft class, like Jedrick Wills and Tristan Wirfs, are elite players. If Douglas selects Ekwonu or Neal, it's an admission that he botched selecting a premier offensive lineman a mere two years ago.

It's not the equivalent of drafting a new franchise quarterback in 2023 to replace Zach Wilson after year two, but it's in that neighborhood. If the Jets draft one of these top two offensive linemen, they have to pan out and be on the level of someone like Trent Williams.

When you pick an offensive lineman in the top five, that's the level of return your franchise has to receive for the pick to mean something in the long run. Selecting Ekwonu or Neal suggests that the decision to draft Mekhi Becton didn't.

Will the NY Jets draft an edge rusher at 4?

A lot has changed since February. The early days of projecting the draft had edge rushers Aidan Hutchinson and Kayvon Thibodeaux at the top of every expert's draft board, but the college all-star bowl season and the NFL Combine arrived to shake up that initial projection.

Players like Florida State's Jermaine Johnson and Georgia's Travon Walker have seen their stocks soar during the run-up to the draft, while at the same time, there have been reports casting doubt about Oregon's Kayvon Thibodeaux.

Thibodeaux was considered a lock to go in the top three to four picks for a long time, but now, rightly or wrongly, questions have emerged about his production (7.0 sacks in 2021) not matching his blue-chip skillset while his football character ("outside interests") has also come into question. 

This could all be a smokescreen or some gamesmanship going on to trick teams into passing on Thibodeaux so that he slides in the draft.

However, one must wonder how the Jets' front office and scouting department truly feels about Thibodeaux. We might find out when the Jets are on the clock starting him down at pick No. 4.

We know that one of the Jets' primary needs is an elite outside pass rusher. The team hasn't had that for a long time. Although they are hoping that prized free-agent acquisition Carl Lawson returns to form after seeing his 2021 season wiped out due to injury, the Jets desperately need to upgrade the team's pass rush.

Even if Lawson is back being the player he was, having multiple elite edge rushers in a Robert Saleh defense is a must. This is particularly true for a defensive scheme and coaching staff that is not flexible.

The Jets don't have a defensive staff that relies on game-planning for their opponents' tendencies, nor do they rely on blitzing offenses to create confusion and pressure. Having two formidable pass rushers on the edge is a must for Jeff Ulbrich and Robert Saleh's defense.

The Jets may have hung around the periphery in free agency, sniffing around some of the big-name pass rushers on the market, but they didn't make an aggressive play, so it stands to reason that they are saving that crucial move for the draft.

Whether at pick No. 4 or No. 10, it's just a matter of where they have the edge rushers not named Hutchinson ranked on their big board, and whether or not the Jets are willing to wait until the 10th spot or later to select one.

Will the NY Jets throw a curveball at pick No. 4?

This scenario hasn't been talked about much. What if the Jets draft a wide receiver at No. 4? Or a cornerback? Or what if another name that was attached to the Jets, in the early days of draft speculation, Notre Dame safety/linebacker hybrid Kyle Hamilton is selected by New York when they are on the clock.

Let's walk through each scenario.

Could Garrett Wilson or Drake London be the NY Jets' selection at 4?

It depends on who the player is and if the Jets think that pass-catcher will be there when they get back on the clock at 10. Let's assume that the Jets have Ohio State wide receiver Garrett Wilson or USC wide receiver Drake London as their favored choices at the position.

There's no guarantee that either will be there when New York is back on the clock six picks later. This is where opposition scouting and teams internally doing mock drafts comes into play.

At first glance, the team picking behind the Jets at four and ahead of them at 10 with a desperate need at the receiver spot is the Atlanta Falcons picking at eight. But the Falcons' focus and perspective may have changed now since trading away Matt Ryan. 

The teams picking directly behind the Jets at picks 5-9 don't appear to have wide receiver high on their list of priorities. The Giants, at 5 and 7, could use a star receiver. Still, they are currently saddled with the overpriced Kenny Golladay and another oft-injured but promising young player in 2021 first-round pick Kadarius Toney.

The Panthers at six, like Atlanta at eight, and Seattle at nine, could all be looking at QBs in the draft. However, many experts feel that selecting Malik Willis or Kenny Pickett would be a reach at this area of the draft.

However, it's plausible that these quarterback prospects are over-drafted because of need and value. The caveat is that the Panthers could address their starting QB in the coming days with Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo still being shopped.

The overwhelming feeling is that Carolina will address offensive line with their first pick if they obtain a new starting QB before the draft arrives.

Even though the teams picking directly behind the Jets at four and in front of them at 10 don't have a clear need for a wide receiver, what mock drafts don't account for is the possibility of teams moving up to select a player at the position. Some teams like the Green Bay Packers could be ultra-aggressive in moving up to select a desired target at wide receiver.

Teams like Washington at 11, the Eagles at 15,16, and 19, or the Saints at 18 also all have pressing needs at wide receiver. There's a strong likelihood that these teams could be jostling to move up the board for Wilson or perhaps London.

The hot spot to trade up and select a coveted receiver is in front of the Jets. A team like Seattle, in a rebuild and stockpiling mode, could easily slide down from 9 and accumulate more picks in the draft. 

To prevent that from happening, the Jets could draft the No. 1 wide receiver they want at pick No. 4, and most would rule that out or are not considering that possibility. But if the Jets have their eyes on selecting a receiver high, they are going through this scenario in their war room. 

The NY Jets could draft Ahmad Gardner at pick No. 4

The same scenario at wide receiver correlates to cornerback Ahmad Gardner. Make no mistake, the consensus No. 1 player at his position entering the draft will be a highly coveted player in this draft. 

The assumption by some is that Gardner could slide to 10, but the 6-foot-3 stud, who is coming off one of the best college campaigns ever by a defensive back, is considered one of the safest bets in this entire draft class.

Rightfully so for a player who never allowed a touchdown in 33 games during his college career. Catches against him were also hard to come by for opposing college receivers. Gardner finished his days at Cincinnati with a 31.8 passer rating against him. In 2021, he didn't allow more than 18 yards in a single game.

In a league where shutdown cornerbacks are exceedingly difficult to find and placed at such a high premium, it's challenging to see a scenario where NFL teams don't overvalue Gardner.

Most experts doing these mock drafts see the teams directly behind the Jets at four as unlikely destinations for Gardner, and simply because the Giants, Panthers, and Falcons all have money tied to the position.

That thought process leaves Seattle as a likely destination for Gardner at nine if he slides down the board. The Seahawks are a logical destination for 'Sauce,' especially since the Jets signed young star cornerback D.J. Reed away from them in free agency.

However, there are many teams just like Seattle, who are desperate for cornerback help, that will view Gardner as their savior at the position. Especially contending teams in the AFC who have to deal with all the prominent quarterbacks now in the conference.

Even though the Los Angeles Chargers signed away J.C. Jackson from New England, what's to stop them from packaging their 17th pick to move up and select Gardner as the final piece to their potential Super Bowl puzzle?

Once upon a time, Chargers head coach Brandon Staley saw firsthand the value of elite cornerback play, coaching Jalen Ramsey when he was the Rams' defensive coordinator.

How does one deal with Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr and Devante Adams, or Russell Wilson and his band of receivers in the AFC West? How about pairing Sauce Gardner with J.C. Jackson at cornerback for the next five years? That would slow down some passing attacks. 

If the Jets are dead set on drafting Sauce Gardner, New York will have to select him at four. All bets are off that Gardner makes it to the Jets plate at 10 if they pass him up the first go around on the clock. Plus, with the Dolphins adding Tyreek Hill, the Jets will need to load up at cornerback.

The NY Jets could draft Kyle Hamilton at 4

It would be ironic if the Jets, in a year where they have two first-round selections because of dealing away Jamal Adams, drafted another superstar safety in Kyle Hamilton. This is a polarizing possibility for many Jets fans. 

Many believe that Hamilton is a top-two player in this class based on college performance alone, and that the only reason he might not be selected in the top three is that he doesn't play a premium position. 

Jets fans don't want to relive recent history by selecting another safety this high, however, in Kyle Hamilton's defense. He is not your typical safety, and Hamilton, at 6-foot-4 220 pounds, is an elite athlete who can play all over the field — in the box against the run, lining up against tight ends, or even playing the slot if needed. 

In many ways, the Jets brass has already shown that they have an eye out for Kyle Hamilton types to play in their defense. A year ago, the team heavily pursued safety Keanu Neal to play linebacker, and he instead chose Dallas.

After that particular pursuit failed, the Jets went ahead in last year's draft, selected two college safeties, and tried to convert them to linebackers in Hamsah Nasirildeen and Jamien Sherwood. Hamilton wouldn't need to be converted because it's something that he has already done at a high level.

So if the Jets select Kyle Hamilton, it will be because they feel he can be an impact player at more than just the traditional safety position.

Sure, the team did sign the exceptional Jordan Whitehead in free agency, but could Hamilton provide the same big-play impact that Micah Parsons gave Dallas last season by playing multiple positions?

Safety is certainly not a position of great need for New York, but some teams view Hamilton as something more than that. Quite frankly, they need to have that mindset to justify the selection for the Jets to select him at four — the belief that Hamilton will be a superstar who transforms their defense.

Do the NY Jets trade down from the 4th spot?

Because the Jets have added ammunition at the top of the second round with picks No. 35 and No. 38, there's always the chance that they could utilize those assets to move anywhere they want in the 2022 draft or even next year's.

But there's also a real possibility that the Jets could add more draft picks to their arsenal by moving down from the fourth spot in the draft. There are a lot of variables in play when the Jets are on the clock at four.

Although it seemed unlikely a few weeks back, there could be at least two teams, maybe three, looking to draft a quarterback in the top-10 of the draft.

Barring a curveball at two with Detroit, teams like Carolina at six, Atlanta at eight, and Seattle at nine could be in the market for a franchise quarterback when the draft rolls around.

Liberty's Malik Willis and Pittsburgh's Kenny Pickett appear to be the two likely targets for NFL teams in the draft's first round, and interest in those two players could play into the Jets' favor. The picture will become clearer when the veteran QB carousel ends, provided that Baker Mayfield and Jimmy Garoppolo find new homes. 

No matter what happens at the quarterback spots around the league. The Jets could entertain moving down in the draft even though some have labeled this as a weaker draft class than in years past. There are still some top-flight prospects at the top of the draft who will garner interest.

Players like Kyle Hamilton and Ahmad Gardner are two prospects that will be highly coveted. There could be as many as four offensive linemen selected in the top-10 picks.

On top of that, the edge rusher position is considered one of this draft's biggest strengths, particularly in the first round. Teams will want to come up for players like Travon Walker and Jermaine Johnson.

If they play their cards right, the Jets could slide down a bit from four and pick up more draft capital in 2022, or perhaps in 2023 as well. It's certainly an option. Moving down in the draft could open the door for new targets to emerge for the Jets that haven't previously been considered. 

Final thoughts on the NY Jets draft options

A month from now, Joe Douglas, his staff, and the franchise have a grand opportunity in the 2022 NFL Draft. With two top-10 picks, the Jets are in a prime position to land cornerstone players for the next decade.

The turnaround for New York doesn't happen unless they finally break the trend of missing up top in the draft. It may seem like hyperbole, but this is the most critical Jets draft in years.

The position that New York is in is scarce. The likelihood of the Jets having two first-round picks in the top ten is slim. This year's first-round for the Jets will decide whether the franchise will finally start to see the light or continue to remain in darkness.

Joe Douglas and his staff have to get this right. The team's future and their own future depend on it.