3 trade packages the NY Jets can offer for Derek Carr

The NY Jets have been connected to a variety of quarterbacks over the last few weeks, and one of the players most heavily tied to Jets rumors has been Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr.

Unlike the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Lamar Jackson, Jimmy Garoppolo, etc., Carr's situation has a set timetable. The four-time Pro Bowler will either be traded or released by next Wednesday, Feb. 15.

A large portion (over $40 million) of Carr's remaining contract becomes guaranteed on that date, so the Raiders will be forced to make a move prior to next Wednesday. That presents an interesting situation for inquiring teams.

The belief as of earlier in the week was that Carr was likely set to be released prior to Feb. 15. However, the New Orleans Saints have emerged as a potential trade partner, with Carr visiting with the team on Wednesday.

The teams have reportedly agreed to terms on the framework of a potential deal, although no trade has been finalized. Still, with New Orleans entering the fray, Carr's timeline may have been accelerated.

If other teams want to land Carr, they might not be able to wait until he's released. But where do the Jets stand in this situation?

The Jets have made it abundantly clear that Aaron Rodgers is their preferred quarterback target, but there's an inherent risk involved with waiting for Rodgers to decide on his NFL future. The biggest risk, of course, is missing out on Carr.

It still seems unlikely that Carr is traded as of the time of writing, but the odds significantly increased once the Saints got involved. If he is traded, what might it cost to acquire him?

Let's take a look at three possible trade packages the Jets can offer for Derek Carr.

NY Jets trade 2023 third-round pick for Derek Carr

ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported on Tuesday night that the Raiders are looking for a "modest" trade package for Carr. They're not looking for a first-round pick nor will they likely even be able to get a second-round pick.

Instead, Fowler insisted that at least one NFL source believes a third-round pick will be enough to get it done. That's the baseline trade offer we're going to be working with.

Now, there are some contingencies with a Carr trade. Fowler also reported that inquiring teams have expressed a desire to agree to a reworked deal with Carr. Essentially, they don't want to take on his current contract.

Carr is set to carry cap hits of $33 million, $42 million, and $41.3 million in 2023, 2024, and 2025 if the team trading for him retains his current deal. Those are large cap hits, especially in 2024 and 2025.

Fowler also stated that, although teams want a reworked deal, the assumption is that Carr wouldn't agree to those terms. He knows what his value might be on the open market if a bidding war ensues.

After all, quarterbacks of Carr's caliber, still relatively in the prime of their careers, don't hit the open market very often. That right there is why a trade remains unlikely, despite the Saints' interest.

Still, if Carr is willing to play ball and renegotiate his current contract, or if another team is willing to take on his hefty cap hits, a third-round pick is a fair starting point that should get a deal done.

NY Jets trade 2023 fourth and 2023 fifth-round pick for Derek Carr

The Raiders might want a third-round pick, but their lack of leverage in the situation, combined with Carr's no-trade clause, might prevent them from receiving maximum value.

After all, Carr has no obligation to the Raiders. He has no reason to accept a trade to any destination that he doesn't want. That could significantly decrease the value the Raiders receive in return.

Perhaps Carr's preferred destination is the Jets. Maybe the Jets come calling with an offer and are willing to make room for Carr's contract. They likely wouldn't need to offer a third-round pick.

In this scenario, the Jets send two Day 3 picks, fourth and fifth-round selections, to the Raiders in exchange for Carr. Using Jimmy Johnson's trade value chart, the value of those two picks roughly equates to a late third-round pick.

Essentially, instead of the Jets forfeiting their own third-round pick (No. 74 overall), they send the equivalent of the 98th overall pick to the Raiders. Not what Las Vegas prefers, but they may not have a choice.

This could still benefit the Raiders, however. Las Vegas might be looking to stockpile picks, as opposed to simply trading Carr for one selection. That was the strategy the Kansas City Chiefs employed last offseason.

The Jets originally offered the No. 10 overall pick in last year's draft to the Chiefs for Tyreek Hill, but they declined. The Chiefs wanted multiple picks in return, so they eventually agreed to a deal that included both Jets' second-round picks.

Ultimately, the Raiders might not get the value they're looking for, but this is still a reasonable trade package for both sides. Whether the Jets or another team offers this proposal, I can definitely see the Raiders accepting.

NY Jets trade 2024 second-round pick for Derek Carr and a 2023 fifth-round pick

General manager Joe Douglas has mostly stayed away from trading away significant draft capital, opting instead for the "stockpile young talent on team-friendly contracts" approach. In essence, he's been playing the long game.

Apart from his pursuit of Tyreek Hill last offseason, Douglas hasn't really shown a willingness to part ways with valuable, high-level draft capital. That strategy might need to change, though.

The time for playing the long game is over. Douglas is entering his fourth offseason with the organization and his fifth overall season. The Jets need to make the playoffs this year or else Douglas' job is in serious jeopardy.

Perhaps, with that in mind, Douglas would be more willing to part ways with future draft capital, even if it requires paying a little extra. That's the ideology this scenario explores.

This trade package sees the Jets send a 2024 second-round pick to the Raiders in exchange for Carr and a 2023 fifth-round pick. The Jets receive all the 2023 assets in this deal, which fits their win-now mindset.

Future draft picks are generally equal to the value of one round later than their present-day counterparts. In simpler terms, the 2024 second-round pick roughly equals a 2023 third-round pick.

The Jets still send the Raiders the value they're looking for while they avoid giving up any current assets. If Carr is the answer for the Jets and they make the playoffs next season, that second-round pick won't be worth as much anyway.

It's always a gamble when teams give up future early-round picks, but it isn't much of a gamble for Douglas. Either Carr succeeds and Douglas is vindicated or Carr flops and the Jets GM doesn't have to deal with the ramifications of the trade because he'll be out of a job.

Call this trade package Joe Douglas' Gambit. It's a gamble, but one that offers him a competitive advantage.