May 10, 2013; Florham Park, NJ, USA; New York Jets offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg (left) watches as New York Jets rookie quarterback Geno Smith (7) drops back to pass during New York Jets rookie minicamp at the Atlantic Health Jets Training Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

The Jets’ offense is going through a metamorphosis. Gone are the days of the Eastern style of pounding the football, and in is the West Coast offense under the direction of Marty Mornhinweg. We have talked about how the West Coast offense works, in terms of being based on a horizontal passing game, and quick decisions.

We can talk in generalities about the characteristics of the WCO, but why not go deeper? Why not take a look at how Marty Mornhinweg calls a game? Are there any trends that we can look at, that may translate into the upcoming season, and hopefully years to come?

To analyze, I went back to two games in 2012, a win (week 1), and a loss (week 8). Let’s look at these games and see if the numbers tell us anything.

First we look at play distribution. In both of these games, the emphasis was on the pass. In week 1, Marty called 58 pass plays against only 30 rushing plays. In the week 8 loss to Atlanta, Marty ran 38 passing plays against only 24 rushes. This is all very typical of a West Coast offense, as it is always built on the short passes setting up the run.

Look at the average gain per pass play as well. In the week one win, the Eagles averaged 5.3 yards gained per pass play. In the week eight loss, the Eagles averaged a gain of 4.7 yards per pass play. This tells us, as expected, that there are a lot of 3 step drops happening here, with quick decisions. Little slants, in-cuts, screen passes, etc., are always going to be prevalent here. The passing game is based horizontally, not vertically, which is what keeps the average down.

Now you go to the play by play and look at trends. In the week one win, every drive except for three began with passing plays. All of those passes except for one went for over 10 yards. Same idea in the game from week 8 against the Falcons. All drives but two went for passes, and the completed passes to open a drive went for no longer than 12 yards. This is classic West Coast offense. Bill Walsh would be proud.

And screen passes? Always, there are screen passes. In week one, I counted 10 targets to running backs in the short passing game. In the week 8 matchup against the Falcons, there were only 2 short passes thrown to running backs, but the lead sustained in double digits for most of this game, so there was a mitigating factor that kept the passing game away from the running backs, but that doesn’t change the fact that Marty is fond of using the backs out of the backfield. He once had a fullback with 60 receptions in one year, which tells you all you need to know about the philosophy.

Some takeaways as far as the Jets are concerned? Well for one thing, be ready to see an offense that looks like nothing we have seen in the past with these guys. The days of 1st and 10, run, second and 7, run, and third and 5, pass, are over. The Jets are going to pass early on in their series, and will spread the ball around.

Another obvious point is that the passing game will consist solely of 3 and 5 step drops at the most. No longer are we going to see deep drops with Mark or Geno getting a long time to think about what they are doing. Instead, we will see quick drops, and quick decisions, not giving the quarterback too much time to out think themselves.

Finally, Chris Ivory and company had better have their hands ready. We see in these games that Marty uses the running back a lot in the passing game, and overall, we see that the running back is always near the top of the team in receptions. They are going to be active this fall, no doubt about that.

Bottom line is that the new Jets’ offense is not even going to resemble the offense of the past. Is this a good thing? Absolutely, AM I RIGHT?

December 9, 2012; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Jacksonville Jaguars fullback Greg B. Jones (33) is defended by New York Jets cornerback Kyle Wilson (20) during the first half of the game at EverBank Field. Mandatory Credit: Rob Foldy-USA TODAY Sports

We all like to give our draft grades prior to the group taking the field. The 2013 draft class has only been on the field for rookie camp so far, but yet we have seen them graded anywhere from a B to a D.

You have probably heard the theory that it takes a good three years to really grade a draft class. These players need time to get their feet wet in the league, you know? Someone could be a flash in the pan their first year, and fade away. A player could take three years to develop.

Well our friends at With the First Pick subscribe to this theory, and have gone back to take a look at the 2010 NFL Draft Class.  They have gone through each team, and given them a grade.

Here is our class of 2010, in case any of you forgot:

• Kyle Wilson
• Vladimir Ducasse
• Joe McKnight
• John Conner

Not exactly an honor roll of classes is it.  The gang at With the First Pick didn’t think so either.  First, before you look at their grades, take a look at how they came up with the grading.  Once you have read that, here is the grading of the AFC East.  Here are the Jets grades, courtesy of With the First Pick:

• Total Raw Score: 40.82 (31st)
• Total Weighted Score: 48.86 (31st)
• Average Raw Score: 10.21 (10th)
• Average Weighted Score: 12.22 (11th)
• Total Draft Value: -115 (28th)
• Average Draft Value: -28.75 (29th)

Analysis:  The Jets only had four picks and needed to make them count.  Unfortunately this draft yielded one starter in Kyle Wilson, two role players, and one FB who now plays for the Cincinnati Bengals.  And even more unfortunately, the jettisoned player is the only one that lived up to his draft slot.  Wilson was forced into the starting role due to a Revis injury.  Ducasse has yet to live up to his enormous potential.  McKnight is a change of pace type of back and offers little more.  While the Jets manage to avoid drafting any “busts” they also avoided getting much value with their picks.  When a team has so few chances to make an impact they can’t afford to miss that impact every time.  Now three years later the Jets are in salary cap hell and many have pegged them to finish last in their division.  Perhaps this draft gives an interesting view into how exactly that began to happen.

There are no real surprises here.  We know that this group did not exactly produce a group of Hall of Famers.  Mike Tannenbaum basically struck out with this entire group, and the grades here are well deserved.

2010, not a good year for the Jets and the NFL draft.

Dec 17, 2012; Nashville, TN, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Jeremy Kerley (11) helmet shows support for the Sandy Hook elementary school victims prior to the game against the Tennessee Titans at LP Field. Mandatory Credit: Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports

For today’s profile, we are going to look at another candidate to help out at the wide receiver position, joining Jeremy Kerley and company. He graduated from college in the year 2010, but hasn’t played in the league as of yet. He sure will get a chance, as we all know how much help the Jets need on the outside and down the field. Today, we are going to take a look at Joe Collins, WR formerly from Weber State.

MEASURABLES

Joe Collins stands at 6’2″, and weighs in at 185 pounds. At his pro day in 2011, he ran the forty yard dash in 4.66 seconds. Not elite speed, but certainly is decent speed. Here are his stats from Weber State:

Here is some video on Joe Collins to take a look at:

PROS: Collins has soft hands. You can see it in how he catches the football. Around halfway through the video, there is a clip of a pass that he tips, but is able to tip it to himself. That’s concentration. He also has “football speed”. What do I mean? He can make people miss, and that is a major skill when competing for a job in a West Coast offense. He catches the ball away from his body which is great.

CONS: He has a lack of breakaway speed. Yes, Collins can make people miss, but he cannot take the reception and take it to the house. He will be caught, he doesn’t have that kind of speed. You also always worry about the competition at the small school, and whether the jump to NFL competition will be too steep.

Joseph Collins certainly has ability. The Jets are in need of weapons on the outside, as we all know, to help Mark Sanchez or whoever is at quarterback for the Jets. Collins will have the chance to make an impact, and we wish him luck.